Market & Mainstreet
The Peso Slips as GCash Lists
The Daily Scan – October 20, 2026 (Tue)
The peso closed at a fresh record low on Monday, and more dollars left the country in September than in any month since early 2025. Twenty of 22 economists in a BusinessWorld poll expect the BSP to raise rates by a quarter point on Thursday, and the other two expect more. Against that, GCash lists on the PSE today and a Singapore energy firm is lining up P245 billion for new solar capacity. Costs and borrowing are getting tighter, but long-term money is still coming in.
| Peso close | BSP rate | Sept inflation | Brent |
| ₱63.09/$ | 5.0% |
7.2% |
$109.55 |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Peso closes at a new record low of 63.09 to the dollar
WHAT HAPPENED
The peso closed Monday at 63.09 per dollar, down 10.5 centavos from Friday and past the previous record close of 63.06 set on Oct. 15, the Daily Tribune reported. It traded between 62.98 and 63.17. The pressure came from weakness across emerging Asian currencies after stronger-than-expected US inflation raised bets that the US Federal Reserve will keep rates high or raise them, pushing the dollar to an 18-month high.
UNCERTAIN
The report gave no forecast. Analysts it cited, who were not named, pointed to geopolitical risk and falling foreign reserves as added pressure. Where the peso goes next depends largely on US interest rates and oil.
WHY IT MATTERS
Every imported input, from fuel to packaging to raw materials, now costs more pesos. Budgets and price lists set when the peso was below 62 are out of date.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: margin squeeze for importers and anyone with dollar-priced inputs. Opportunity: exporters and businesses billing foreign clients in dollars get more pesos per sale.
NEXT MOVE
List which of your costs are priced in dollars and ask suppliers for updated quotes this week, instead of assuming last month’s prices still hold.
● Dollar deficit hits $3.14 billion; reserves lowest since 2023
WHAT HAPPENED
The balance of payments posted a $3.14 billion deficit in September, up from $596 million in August and the largest since January 2025, The Manila Times reported, citing BSP data. The January to September gap reached $9.09 billion, against $5.32 billion a year earlier. Gross international reserves fell to $99.49 billion, the lowest since September 2023, though still enough to cover about 6.2 months of imports.
UNCERTAIN
UnionBank’s Ruben Carlo Asuncion said a full-year surplus is now highly unlikely and the question is whether the deficit will beat official projections, but he does not see underlying external weakness, citing remittances, BPO revenue and tourism. SM Investments’ Robert Dan Roces said the priority should be attracting new inflows, not just protecting reserves.
WHY IT MATTERS
The BSP’s full-year forecast is $9.2 billion, which leaves only about $110 million of room for the last three months. An overshoot looks likely, and that keeps pressure on the peso. Plan for a weak peso for a while.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: continued peso weakness and more pressure on the BSP to keep raising rates.
NEXT MOVE
If you import stock for the holiday season, compare the cost of ordering earlier against the risk of paying more pesos later.
● BSP widely expected to raise rates again on Thursday
WHAT HAPPENED
Of 22 economists polled by BusinessWorld, 20 expect the Monetary Board to raise rates by 25 basis points at its Oct. 22 meeting, taking the policy rate to 5.25 percent, and two expect a bigger 50-point hike. September inflation jumped to 7.2 percent from 6.1 percent in August, and core inflation rose to 4.7 percent. Second-quarter growth was just 2.3 percent.
UNCERTAIN
Economists split on what comes after. BPI’s Emilio Neri favors 50 points if the peso weakens toward 64. HSBC’s Aris Dacanay said this week is unlikely to end the hiking cycle, while China Bank’s Domini Velasquez said October could be the last hike given weak growth.
WHY IT MATTERS
Borrowing keeps getting more expensive while the economy is slow. Loans you take or reprice over the coming months will likely cost more, and customers with debt will have less to spend.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: higher interest on credit lines and variable-rate loans, plus softer consumer demand.
NEXT MOVE
Check which of your loans are variable-rate and when they reprice. If you need working capital for the holidays, ask your bank now about fixed-rate options.
● GCash parent Mynt lists on the PSE today
WHAT HAPPENED
Mynt Inc. is set to list on the Philippine Stock Exchange today under the ticker GCASH, at P6.60 per share. Unicapital Securities told the Inquirer that price values the company at about 25.7 times its 2025 earnings, and said the listing could draw retail investors back to the market and encourage other companies to go public.
UNCERTAIN
How the stock trades from today is unknown. Unicapital said the valuation assumes continued growth, earning more from each user, profitable lending and tight control of credit costs, and that strong interest at the IPO is only a first step. Trading volume and earnings after the listing will show whether demand lasts.
WHY IT MATTERS
GCash is how many small merchants take payments and how many Filipinos get credit and insurance. A listed company under pressure to earn more per user will likely push more lending, insurance and merchant products through the app.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: merchants may see more financing and business tools offered. Risk: deeper reliance on one platform’s fees and terms.
NEXT MOVE
If you accept GCash payments, watch for changes to merchant fees or new credit offers after the listing, and read the terms before you sign up.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● Oil holds near a five-month high on Strait of Hormuz threats
WHAT HAPPENED
Brent crude settled at $109.55 a barrel on Monday, near a five-month high, Bloomberg reported. Iran’s first vice president said the country has no choice but to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, while traders also weighed strong crude flows out of the Gulf.
UNCERTAIN
Whether Iran acts on the threat. Prices swung within a range of about $3 in a single session, which shows how quickly this can move either way.
WHY IT MATTERS
Oil feeds straight into Philippine inflation and the peso. Local pump prices this week cut gasoline but raised diesel by P2.60 a liter, according to the Department of Energy, so diesel users are still paying more.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: logistics, delivery, transport and farm businesses running on diesel face higher costs with no relief in sight.
NEXT MOVE
If your vehicles run on diesel, recheck your delivery fees and contract pricing this week.
● China’s economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter, beating forecasts
WHAT HAPPENED
China’s economy grew 4.5 percent year on year in the third quarter, above the 4.4 percent economists expected and up from 4.3 percent in the second quarter, CNBC reported. Strong foreign demand for Chinese technology goods drove the gain, and the monthly trade surplus hit a record $133.5 billion.
UNCERTAIN
The growth leans on exports. A deepening property slump and weak consumer spending inside China are still dragging, and it is unclear how long export strength can carry the economy.
WHY IT MATTERS
China is shipping more goods than ever. That keeps components and finished products flowing to Philippine buyers, but it also means stiffer competition for local makers selling similar products.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: steady supply for businesses sourcing Chinese inputs. Risk: price pressure on local manufacturers competing with Chinese imports.
NEXT MOVE
If you buy from Chinese suppliers, compare quotes in peso terms. The weak peso can wipe out a supplier’s discount.
● Big Tech’s AI shopping agents are coming; small businesses may not be ready
WHAT HAPPENED
Meta’s Muse personal agent, which books tables and buys groceries for users, has been downloaded 9 million times in the US and Canada since its Sept. 8 launch, according to AppMagic data cited by Rest of World. Meta has said it wants a global launch. Experts told the outlet that businesses would need websites bots can read and use, and that small offline sellers would need online inventory and ways for bots to pay.
UNCERTAIN
No timeline was given for markets outside the US and Canada. Meta said wider expansion needs local language support and links to local services. The report focused on Africa, not the Philippines.
WHY IT MATTERS
If customers start sending agents to shop and book for them, businesses whose prices, stock and booking are not online in clear form will simply be skipped.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: early movers with clean, complete online listings. Risk: offline-only sellers lose visibility as this spreads.
NEXT MOVE
Make sure your hours, prices and ordering or booking options are listed clearly and kept current on your website and main platforms.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Cafés are hunting for beans the country cannot grow enough of
The Philippine Coffee Board expects local production to fall short of 30,000 metric tons this year, down from 35,650 in 2025, as El Niño and higher input costs cut the harvest, The STAR reports. Local output covers only about 40 percent of demand, and Brazilian beans have become expensive and hard to get even from big traders, so cafés are now looking for local supply. The catch is that local beans are not cheap either: Benguet beans fetch P750 to P900 a kilo. The opening is for growers, aggregators and roasters who can deliver steady, consistent supply to small cafés, which the board says will feel the squeeze first while big chains buy in bulk. Small shops that pool orders together could also protect themselves from being priced out when larger buyers stockpile.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Grow into risk you can see
Digital lender Salmon just raised $140 million, its second financing in six months, and is using it to move into motorcycle and MSME loans, e27 reports. The outlet points out why the motorcycle move is smart: the bike itself backs the loan, which is a very different risk from the unsecured cash loans that built many Philippine digital lenders, and the motorcycle helps a rider or tricycle driver earn the money to repay. MSME loans are harder, e27 notes, because judging a business needs cash-flow records, not just phone and payment data. The lesson for any founder adding a new product or customer segment is to start where you can see and control the risk, and to know what information you will need before you step into the harder part. e27 also flags that Salmon has not disclosed its loan book or bad-loan ratio, and that app downloads are not the same as active users. Your own business deserves the same honesty: track the numbers that show real health, not the ones that look good in a headline.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
P245 billion for solar, in the week the peso hit bottom
Singapore-based Vena Energy is advancing P245.3 billion in renewable energy investment in the Philippines to build another 2.6 gigawatts-peak of solar capacity, Context.ph reports. It already runs 0.9 GWp here, including plants in Ilocos Norte and Negros Occidental, with 1.3 GWp under construction and 1.3 GWp under contract. The plans were presented to President Marcos in Singapore on Oct. 11, and the government pledged faster permits and incentives under the CREATE MORE Act. No delivery timeline was given, and the report notes the projects depend on grid capacity, energy storage and on-time execution. Still, long-term foreign money committing to Philippine power while the peso sets record lows tells you some investors are looking past this year’s turbulence. Do not expect lower power bills soon, but contractors, electrical service firms and suppliers near these project areas should start watching for work.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
You must be logged in to post a comment Login