Market & Mainstreet
Peso Breaks P63 Per Dollar for the First Time as Remittance Growth Stays Slow
The Daily Scan – October 16, 2026 (Fri)
The peso fell past P63 per dollar for the first time, closing at a record P63.06. The Palace blames the Middle East conflict, El Niño and political noise, while analysts point to a strong dollar and Fed expectations. A weaker peso stretches each remitted dollar, but cash remittances grew only 1.9% in August, the third month under 2%.
On compliance, the PCC fined an onion cartel a record P1.76 billion for dividing the market. The Supreme Court starts e-notarization on Oct 19, and the LRA and SEC are set to accept e-notarized documents.
Abroad, TSMC posted record profit and raised its outlook, yet Asian tech stocks fell on AI debt worries, and the US is weighing easing sanctions on shadow fleet tankers to cut record freight rates. For owners: work out your dollar costs, line up e-notarization, and keep your pricing independent of competitors.
| Peso, record close | August cash remittances | Onion cartel fine |
| P63.06 per US$1, low of P63.15 | +1.9%, to $3.03B | P1.76B, largest PCC fine yet |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Peso breaks P63 per dollar for the first time as the Palace cites war and El Niño
WHAT HAPPENED
The peso closed at a record P63.06 per dollar, 19 centavos weaker than its previous close, after touching an intraday record of P63.15, Bankers Association of the Philippines data show. The previous record close was P62.90. BusinessWorld reports the peso is down 6.77% this year from P58.79, and the Daily Tribune reports it has set record lows nearly 30 times since the Gulf conflict began in March. Palace Press Officer Claire Castro told a briefing that the Middle East conflict is the main driver for emerging market currencies, and she also cited El Niño effects and political noise. She said the government is studying more measures to cushion the impact, and that foreign exchange policy is the BSP’s mandate. UnionBank’s chief economist linked the move to a strong dollar and expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer after hot US inflation data.
UNCERTAIN
Analysts expect more volatility. A trader quoted by BusinessMirror said breaking P63 does not mean a sustained fall. Economist Michael Ricafort told BusinessWorld there may have been BSP smoothing near P63.10. The Palace’s explanation is its own view, while analysts also point to US rate expectations and oil.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: a weaker peso raises the peso cost of imported fuel, food, raw materials and anything priced in dollars. Businesses with dollar debts pay more in pesos, while exporters and firms with dollar income gain.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: import and debt costs rise faster than you can reprice. Opportunity: exporters, firms with dollar income and businesses serving OFW families may gain.
NEXT MOVE
List your dollar costs and dollar debts and work out what each extra P1 per dollar adds to your monthly bill. For example, a $10,000 monthly import bill costs P10,000 more for every P1 the peso weakens.
BusinessMirror →, BusinessWorld → , The Manila Times →, Daily Tribune →
● PCC fines six onion firms a record P1.76B for dividing the market
WHAT HAPPENED
The Philippine Competition Commission fined six firms and their officers a combined P1.76 billion, the biggest fine under the Philippine Competition Act so far, for an illegal market allocation scheme in the importation, cold storage and wholesale distribution of onions. The case followed onion prices of as much as P800 a kilo in late 2022. The Inquirer reports that four firms received the maximum P330 million each, Tian Long and its officer received P118.32 million, and fines were tripled because onions are a prime commodity. The Manila Bulletin reports the group controlled nearly half of approved onion import clearances in 2020 and 2021. The PCC computed the fines from PSA import and wholesale price data because the firms’ audited financial statements were grossly understated. Charges against Philippine Vieva Group were dismissed.
UNCERTAIN
The Philippine Star reports the firms may file a motion for reconsideration. Individuals may also face criminal liability if the DOJ prosecutes, and the Inquirer reports no fine had been paid at the time of its report.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: this is a warning that dividing markets with competitors can bring very large penalties, and that understating financials does not protect a firm.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: any coordination with competitors on prices, territories, volumes or customers can create legal exposure. Opportunity: stricter enforcement may help smaller buyers and sellers who were squeezed by market allocation. Both are our interpretation, and this is not legal advice.
NEXT MOVE
If you meet competitors in a trade group, keep the talk away from prices, customers and territories, and ask a lawyer to review the group’s rules.
Inquirer →, Manila Bulletin →, PhilStar →
● Cash remittances reach a three-month low in August as growth stays under 2%
WHAT HAPPENED
Cash remittances sent through banks grew 1.9% from a year earlier to $3.03 billion in August, the lowest level in three months, according to preliminary BSP data reported by the Inquirer and BusinessWorld. For the first eight months they are up 2.2% to $23.42 billion, and the BSP expects $36.6 billion for the full year, a 2.7% rise. The Philippine Star reports personal remittances, a broader measure, rose 2% to $3.37 billion. BusinessWorld reports growth stayed below 2% for a third straight month and that cash remittances fell 6.3% from July. PNA reports the US, Singapore and Saudi Arabia were the top sources.
UNCERTAIN
UnionBank’s chief economist says the BSP’s 2.7% target is within reach if holiday transfers pick up in the fourth quarter and current trends hold. That is a forecast. Softer overseas deployment and geopolitical risks remain.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: remittances are slowing while the peso is weaker, so each dollar buys more pesos, but prices are rising too. Families may have more pesos on paper without more buying power.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: slower growth in a key source of household cash while prices rise. Opportunity: a weaker peso lifts the peso value of each remitted dollar, which may support shops and services that serve OFW families in the holiday season.
NEXT MOVE
If your customers include OFW families, plan holiday promotions and payment options early, and check your cash needs for the fourth quarter.
Philstar →, Inquirer→, BusinessWorld →, The Chronicle →
● Supreme Court rolls out e-notarization on Oct 19, with LRA and SEC set to accept it
WHAT HAPPENED
The Supreme Court will roll out a nationwide electronic notarization system on Oct 19. The Manila Times reports the court signed agreements this week with the Land Registration Authority and the Securities and Exchange Commission on guidelines for accepting, verifying and processing e-notarized documents, including property transactions, business registrations and regulatory filings. The Inquirer reports that accredited notaries will be able to serve clients regardless of their physical location. The SC says documents notarized under the 2004 notarial rules remain valid. Justice Alfredo Benjamin Caguioa said the court has begun talks with the DFA to extend the service to OFWs.
UNCERTAIN
The agreements cover the LRA and SEC. The reports we read do not say which other offices will accept e-notarized documents, what fees will apply, or how many accredited notaries will be available at launch.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: for SMEs, notarized papers such as contracts, board resolutions and SEC filings can take time and travel. Remote notarization may shorten that, especially for firms outside Metro Manila.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: early glitches or limited availability of accredited notaries. Opportunity: faster paperwork and less travel time.
NEXT MOVE
Ask your lawyer or notary whether they will offer e-notarization, and note which of your pending documents could use it.
The Manila Times → , Daily Tribune →, Inquirer →
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● TSMC posts record profit and raises its 2026 growth outlook to about 44%
WHAT HAPPENED
TSMC reported third-quarter net income of NT$763.06 billion, up 68.7% from a year earlier, on revenue of NT$1.494 trillion, up 50.9%, according to its filing. Focus Taiwan reports it raised its 2026 sales growth forecast to about 44% in US dollar terms and kept its capital spending budget at $60 billion to $64 billion. High-performance computing, which includes AI chips, made up 68% of revenue, and 2-nanometer chips were 8% of wafer revenue. For the fourth quarter it guides a gross margin of 65% to 67%, against 66.4% in the third quarter.
UNCERTAIN
Strong results did not lift the shares, which slipped as investors weighed margin guidance and heavy spending. The demand depends on customers’ AI investment, which markets are questioning right now.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: it confirms strong AI chip demand through a supply chain that includes Philippine electronics makers.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: if AI spending slows or financing tightens, orders can fall. Opportunity: Philippine firms in the chip and electronics supply chain, including logistics and services.
NEXT MOVE
If you supply electronics clients, ask about their fourth-quarter and 2027 volumes before committing to new capacity.
CNBC →, Focus Taiwan →, TSMC →
● Asian tech stocks tumble on AI debt worries as US rate bets shift
WHAT HAPPENED
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 3.4% for a fourth straight day of losses, led by a plunge of more than 8% in South Korea’s KOSPI, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 5.4%, Reuters reports. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.9% after US inflation accelerated more than expected, and a gauge of chip stocks fell for a sixth day as higher rate prospects hit AI names such as Oracle and CoreWeave that are sensitive to borrowing costs. Reuters reports Brent crude was down 1.3% at $104.71 a barrel. Nikkei Asia reports that longer-dated US Treasury yields fell to their lowest since late September, with traders expecting the Fed to hold in October and raise rates in December.
UNCERTAIN
Analysts are split on how much one inflation report should change the Fed’s path. DBS analysts say they are not convinced the Fed must hike back to back. Markets briefly priced roughly even odds of an October hike before scaling back.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: Asian chip and hardware stocks are sensitive to US rate expectations, and that spills into regional markets and currencies, including the peso.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: more volatility in regional markets and capital outflows. Opportunity: if US yields keep easing, pressure on the dollar and the peso may lessen.
NEXT MOVE
If you must buy dollars, consider spreading purchases over several days instead of one large trade.
● US weighs easing sanctions on shadow fleet tankers to cut record freight rates
WHAT HAPPENED
The Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet vessels that have carried oil from countries including Russia, Iran and Venezuela, to bring down record global tanker freight rates, a US official told Reuters. The plan would let sanctioned vessels carry non-sanctioned oil, with companies applying to the Treasury, and aims to move more crude and fuel out of the Gulf. The Energy Department says any easing would not help Russia move oil. gCaptain reports tanker rates have soared as wars in Iran and Ukraine stoke inflation and put US crude out of reach for Asian refiners.
UNCERTAIN
The plan is under consideration, not decided. Energy Aspects says most of the tankers are already trading, so the effect on freight would be small, and maritime sources say insurers would still follow EU and UK rules.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: freight is part of what Asian importers such as the Philippines pay for fuel, so a real drop in tanker rates could help, but the experts quoted expect little change.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: freight and insurance costs stay high and keep fuel prices elevated. Opportunity: if more oil flows out of the Gulf, supply worries could ease over time.
NEXT MOVE
Keep fuel and freight as separate lines in your quotes so you can adjust each when prices change.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
A weaker peso stretches each remitted dollar
Two stories connect. The peso closed at a record P63.06 per dollar, and cash remittances grew only 1.9% in August to $3.03 billion. Because remittances arrive in dollars, a weaker peso means each remitted dollar buys more pesos than before. At P63.06, a $200 transfer is worth P12,612, compared with P11,758 at the P58.79 level where the peso started the year.
For a business that serves OFW families, such as a food seller, school, clinic or savings and payment service, that may support holiday demand, because families receive more pesos per dollar. Exporters and firms that earn in dollars gain in the same way.
The caution is that prices are rising too, so more pesos does not always mean more buying power, and remittance growth is slowing. A weaker peso also raises your import and dollar debt costs. Treat this as a possible tailwind for some sectors, not a general gain. This section is our interpretation of two news items, not a forecast.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Decide your prices and territories alone
The PCC says six onion firms divided the market among themselves for importing, storing and selling onions. It fined them a record P1.76 billion. Onions are a prime commodity, so the law triples the applicable fines.
Section 14(b)(2) of the Philippine Competition Act prohibits agreements among competitors to divide or share markets by sales volume, territory, products or customers. That can sound harmless in a trade meeting. An understanding that one firm serves one area and another firm serves another can fall under the rule.
The simple habit for a founder is to set your prices, territories and customers on your own. When you meet competitors in a trade group, keep the talk to standards, training and policy. Keep honest books too: the PCC computed the fines from PSA import and price data after finding that the firms’ audited statements understated their turnover. This is our reading of the case and not legal advice, so ask a lawyer about your own situation.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
The peso is breaking records even as the dollar eases
The peso closed at P63.06 per dollar, a record close, after touching P63.15. It is down 6.77% this year from P58.79 and has set record lows nearly 30 times since the Gulf conflict began in March. BusinessWorld reports dollar trading rose to $1.5 billion from $941 million the day before.
The explanations differ. UnionBank’s economist links the move to a strong dollar and expectations that the Fed keeps rates higher for longer after hot US inflation. The Palace points to the Middle East conflict, El Niño effects and political noise. Economist Michael Ricafort says there may have been BSP smoothing near P63.10. BusinessMirror reports the BSP has raised its policy rate by a total of 75 basis points in three steps since the conflict began, and is now in its quiet period before next week’s meeting.
There is a possible counterweight. Reuters reports US long-term yields fell to their lowest since late September on bets that the Fed holds in October, and investingLive reports the dollar weakened broadly in Asian trade. If that holds, pressure on the peso may ease. Even so, the peso kept falling on the day it broke P63, even as the dollar eased slightly.
How to read this: the exchange rates and flows are reported data. The explanations are opinions from the Palace and from analysts. Use them to test your plan against a weaker peso, not to predict where it goes.
- Fed Chair Warsh at the IMF meetings, today. Reuters says some investors hope his remarks in Bangkok give clues on US rates.
- Oct 22 BSP decision. Whether the BSP hikes again with the peso at a record low.
- Oct 28 Fed decision. Traders expect a hold, with a hike priced for December.
- November Meralco bills. The new distribution rate and the refund start together, so check each line.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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