Market & Mainstreet
Supertyphoon Rosal Nears as Investors Await Mynt’s Debut and the BSP Decision
The Daily Scan – October 19, 2026 (Mon)
A busy week starts today. Supertyphoon Champi will enter the country’s area on Oct 20 as Rosal, with strong winds possible in northern Luzon and Bicol. Investors face the BSP decision on Oct 22, where a 25 basis point hike is the base case, and Mynt’s listing on Oct 20.
On costs, labor groups are pressing the Supreme Court on the stalled P85 Metro Manila wage hike, which could mean back pay for employers. Pork is cheaper than a year ago, but rice is about 24% higher.
Abroad, Asian stocks slid again on AI funding worries, Houthi attacks on Saudi targets are keeping Riyadh’s airport shut, and China’s GDP data is due today. For owners: write a storm plan, estimate your payroll exposure, and keep fuel and exchange rate assumptions flexible.
| PSEi, last close | BSP policy rate | Fresh pork, early October |
| 5,782.70, +1.43% on the week | 5.0%, decision on Oct 22 |
P290.85, per kg, from P320.98 a year ago |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Investors look to the BSP decision and Mynt’s listing after a second weekly gain
WHAT HAPPENED
The PSEi closed at 5,782.70 in its last session, up 1.43% for the week and a second straight weekly gain, according to 2TradeAsia as reported by The Manila Times. Foreign investors were net sellers of P1.41 billion last week, and trading was subdued. The BSP meets on Oct 22, and 2TradeAsia expects a 25 basis point hike as the minimum needed to keep the rate gap with the US from narrowing, after September inflation of 7.2%. Mynt is scheduled to list on Oct 20 after pricing its IPO at P6.60 a share.
UNCERTAIN
Philstocks says a hold would be a positive surprise and a hike of more than 25 basis points a negative one. The PSEi has struggled to break 5,800, and both brokers describe the rally as fragile. A strong Mynt debut could lift sentiment briefly, but 2TradeAsia advises against chasing the stock before the BSP decision.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: the BSP decision and a weak peso set borrowing and import costs for SMEs, and the market’s mood affects how easily companies can raise money.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: a bigger hike than expected, further peso weakness or oil above $100 could hurt sentiment. Opportunity: 2TradeAsia says it prefers dollar-earning companies and well-capitalized banks, which shows what investors are rewarding. Both are our interpretation, and this is not investment advice.
NEXT MOVE
Decide your limit before you trade around the listing, and check your loan terms ahead of the Oct 22 decision.
● Supertyphoon Champi to enter PAR as Rosal, with strong winds possible in northern Luzon and Bicol
WHAT HAPPENED
Supertyphoon Champi may enter the Philippine area of responsibility on Oct 20 and will be named Rosal, bringing potentially destructive winds and heavy rain to northern Luzon later this week, Pagasa said. The Manila Bulletin reports wind signals may be raised over the northern and eastern parts of Northern Luzon and parts of Bicol as early as this evening, and that the highest signal could reach No. 3 or 4. The Inquirer reports very rough to very high seas may affect Luzon’s northern and eastern seaboards from Oct 21, with a gale warning possible on Oct 20 evening or Oct 21 morning.
UNCERTAIN
Champi is forecast to head toward Taiwan, but Pagasa says its track could shift south, and it cannot rule out a landfall over extreme northern Luzon. It may weaken from a supertyphoon to a typhoon as it crosses the Philippine Sea.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: businesses in northern Luzon and Bicol may face disruptions to transport, ports and power, and rough seas can delay shipping along the northern and eastern coasts.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: delayed deliveries, closed roads and ports, power outages and damaged stock. Opportunity: firms that sell supplies, repairs, generators or logistics support may see short-term demand.
NEXT MOVE
If you operate in northern Luzon or Bicol, check stock levels, secure inventory and equipment, and tell customers about possible delays.
Inquirer →, Manila Bulletin →, GMA News→
● Labor groups press for faster action on the stalled P85 NCR wage hike
WHAT HAPPENED
The NAGKAISA Labor Coalition urged the Office of the Solicitor General and DOLE to speed up their comments to the Supreme Court on a petition challenging lower court orders that blocked Wage Order NCR-27, The Philippine Star and BusinessWorld report. NCR-27 granted a P85 daily increase in two tranches, P60 from July 25 and P25 from Jan 20, 2027, and trial courts in Pasig and Navotas issued orders stopping it. A separate order, NCR-28, gave a P60 increase from Sept 26, which put the Metro Manila minimum wage at P755 a day for non-agricultural workers. The coalition estimates a worker owed the full P60 for 54 working days could be owed P3,240 in wage differentials.
UNCERTAIN
The Supreme Court has not ruled. BusinessWorld reports employers asked it to dismiss the petition because NCR-28 already delivered the relief. The reports we read do not say whether the January P25 tranche under NCR-27 will go ahead.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: if the court sides with workers, Metro Manila employers could owe back pay for the period the order was blocked. That would be a sudden cost for SMEs.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: an unplanned back pay bill and uncertainty about the January tranche. Opportunity: employers who set aside a reserve and keep clean payroll records now can respond faster if the court rules. Both are our interpretation, and this is not legal advice.
NEXT MOVE
If you employ minimum wage workers in Metro Manila, confirm you are paying the P755 rate, and ask your accountant to estimate a rough worst case using P60 per day for the covered days.
Philstar →, Daily Tribune→, BusinessWorld →
● Rice and pork prices ease from mid-September, but rice is still far above last year
WHAT HAPPENED
PSA data reported by The Manila Times show regular-milled rice at P49.79 a kilo in early October, slightly below P49.97 in the second half of September. Fresh pork with bones was P290.85 a kilo, down from P295.58 and from P320.98 a year earlier. Eggplant was P104.41 a kilo, down from P111.83. Rice is still about 24% above a year ago, when it cost around P40.12 to P40.20 a kilo.
UNCERTAIN
These are national averages for the first days of October, so they do not show this week’s prices. Prices at your market may differ. 2TradeAsia warns that El Niño effects on food prices could keep inflation risks elevated in the coming months.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: cheaper pork helps meat sellers, restaurants and canteens, but rice is about a quarter higher than a year ago, which keeps pressure on meal prices and on customers’ budgets.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: weather could reverse the easing. Opportunity: food sellers may be able to hold menu prices steady or feature pork dishes while pork is cheaper.
NEXT MOVE
Compare your supplier invoices for pork and rice with these averages, and ask for the lower price where it applies.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● Asian stocks slide again as AI funding worries linger and oil eases
WHAT HAPPENED
Asian shares slipped as unease over AI’s huge funding needs weighed ahead of a week of earnings, Reuters reports. Japan’s Nikkei fell 2.0% after dropping 5.4% the week before, South Korea’s market lost 1.6% after shedding more than 14%, and MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index outside Japan slipped 0.3%. Oil fell after US President Donald Trump said he would waive some sanctions on Russia, though he later said no final decision had been made. Brent fell 1.6% to $108.06 a barrel and US crude lost 0.7% to $100.70. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 5.0645%.
UNCERTAIN
Trump’s sanctions decision is not final. Markets are also watching a week packed with earnings, and the euro eased after rioting across France, which adds another source of volatility.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: sharp moves in Asian tech stocks and oil feed into the dollar and the peso, which matters for importers and borrowers.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: more swings in oil and tech stocks. Opportunity: lower oil, if it holds, would ease fuel cost pressure.
NEXT MOVE
Keep the fuel and exchange rate assumptions in your quotes flexible this week.
● Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi drones as Riyadh’s airport stays shut and OFWs head home
WHAT HAPPENED
Gulf News reports that Houthi attacks on Saudi targets, including energy facilities and Riyadh’s international airport, are continuing. The airport, where 13 people were killed in a major attack last week, was suspended through at least Oct 17, while airports in Jeddah and Dammam operated with some delays and cancellations. Saudi Arabia intercepted four drones over Riyadh and other regions, and the UK and US warned of risks to Saudi airports and energy sites. The Philippine Star reports the first batch of 34 OFWs repatriated from Riyadh is due in Manila today.
UNCERTAIN
The reports we read do not say when Riyadh’s airport will reopen. How far the attacks spread is not settled.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: Saudi Arabia is a major destination for OFWs, so flight disruptions affect families and remittances, and Saudi energy sites matter for oil prices.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: more repatriations, lower Gulf remittances and higher oil prices if energy sites are hit. Opportunity: businesses that serve returning OFW families, such as job placement, retraining and small-business support, may see new demand.
NEXT MOVE
If you employ or serve OFW families, check whether any customers depend on Gulf income and plan for slower collections.
● China’s third-quarter GDP is due today, with growth seen near the low end of its target
WHAT HAPPENED
A Reuters poll expects China’s economy to have grown 4.4% in the third quarter, up from 4.3% in the second quarter, which was the weakest pace in more than three years, and below the lower end of the 4.5% to 5% full-year target. September industrial output is forecast to have grown 5.5% and retail sales 0.6%, while fixed-asset investment is projected to have fallen 7.3% in January to September. China’s trade surplus widened more than expected in September as exports surged, and it is on track to pass last year’s record $1.2 trillion.
UNCERTAIN
The official figures were not out when this edition was compiled. Reuters notes that AI-linked investment is cooling and trade tensions with the EU are escalating.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: China is a major buyer of oil and a key market for Philippine exports, so its growth shapes oil demand and trade.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: weak Chinese demand and a record export surge could spur trade disputes. Opportunity: if growth picks up, demand for Philippine exports may improve.
NEXT MOVE
If you export to China, ask buyers about their fourth-quarter orders, and check today’s release.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Cheaper pork may give food sellers room to absorb labor costs
Two stories sit side by side. PSA data show fresh pork at P290.85 a kilo in early October, down from P320.98 a year earlier. At the same time, the Metro Manila minimum wage is P755 a day, and a court dispute could add back pay for the blocked P60 tranche.
For a restaurant, carinderia or meat retailer, lower pork costs may make room for labor costs without raising menu prices. Check your supplier invoices against the PSA averages, and consider featuring pork dishes while the price is low. These are ideas to test, not a market study.
The caution is that rice is about 24% above last year, typhoon damage and El Niño could reverse the easing, and a back pay ruling could be a one-time cost. Set aside a reserve. This section is our interpretation of two news items, not a forecast.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Write your storm plan before the signal goes up
Pagasa says wind signals may be raised in northern Luzon and Bicol as early as tonight, with a supertyphoon about to enter the country’s area. For a business in those areas, the planning window is short.
A storm plan does not need to be long. Write one page now: who decides to close, which stock and equipment must be moved, how you will reach staff and customers, what you will do if power or roads fail, and which backup supplier you will call.
Do it even if you are far from the storm. Rough seas can delay shipping from the north and east, and El Niño is expected to bring more disruption later. A plan you have already written is cheaper than one you improvise. This is our reading of the forecast, not a prediction of damage.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
A 25 basis point hike is the base case, and the surprise risk is on the upside
The base case for this week is a 25 basis point BSP hike on Oct 22. 2TradeAsia calls it the minimum adjustment needed to stop the rate gap with the US from narrowing, after September inflation hit 7.2%. Philstocks says investors would read a hold as a positive surprise and a hike above 25 basis points as a negative one, The Manila Times reports. BusinessMirror reports the policy rate stands at 5.0% after three quarter-point hikes.
The pressure points are visible. The peso broke P63 per dollar last week, Brent is above $100, and foreign investors sold a net P1.41 billion of Philippine stocks. 2TradeAsia warns that higher energy costs and El Niño effects on food prices could keep inflation risks elevated.
Outside the Philippines, US rate expectations have calmed. CNBC reports futures priced only about a 15% chance of an October hike after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal a move, and the Fed is now in its quiet period before its Oct 27 to 28 meeting. Traders still lean toward a hike in December. Those are market odds, not decisions.
How to read this: the market levels and the price data are reported figures. The BSP call and the Fed pause are forecasts. Use them to plan for a 25 basis point rise, and test what a larger move would mean for your loans.
- China GDP, today. Whether growth beats the 4.4% poll forecast, which matters for oil demand and Asian trade.
Mynt listing, Oct 20. How GCASH trades and whether it lifts the wider market.
Oct 22 BSP decision. A 25 basis point hike is the base case. A bigger move would be a surprise.
Oct 27 to 28 Fed meeting. Traders expect a hold in October and lean toward a hike in December.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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