Market & Mainstreet
Inflation Data Lands Tomorrow as the PSEi Eyes 5,500 and the Visayas Eyes a Power Emergency
The Daily Scan – October 05, 2026 (Mon)
The PSA releases September inflation tomorrow. The BSP expects between 6.4% and 7.4%, up from 6.1% in August. The PSEi fell 3.4% last week to 5,629.03 and brokers warn it could test 5,500, while the peso, at P62.535, sits near the P63 line.
Relief came from abroad. US payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September, which cut bets on another Fed hike and lifted Asian shares today. At home, gasoline is expected to rise by P1.80 to P2.00 a liter tomorrow while diesel dips by P1.00 to P1.20.
In Cebu and the rest of the Visayas, officials are pushing for emergency powers to fix a power supply that is barely keeping up with demand.
| USD to PHP | BSP Sept. inflation view | PSEi |
| P62.535 | 6.4% to 7.4% | 5,629.03, down 3.4% |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Stocks and peso brace for tomorrow’s inflation report
WHAT HAPPENED
Context.ph reports that the PSEi fell 3.4% last week to 5,629.03, its fourth straight weekly loss and sixth decline in seven weeks. Foreign selling rose to US$72.8 million from US$12.7 million the week before. Broker 2TradeAsia says a reading near or below 6.5% could spark a relief rally toward 5,800, while 6.8% or higher would support a fourth straight 25 basis point BSP hike on October 22 and put 5,500 within reach. The peso closed Friday at P62.535. RCBC’s Michael Ricafort sees resistance at P62.70 to P62.75, then the record intraday low of P62.925 and P63. The Inquirer notes the index dipped below 5,500 during Friday’s session before recovering.
UNCERTAIN
The scenarios come from one broker and are not forecasts of the actual print. The Monetary Board has not decided on any October move.
WHY IT MATTERS
A fourth hike of 25 basis points would lift the BSP rate from 5% to 5.25%, pushing up loan costs again.
RISK
A hot reading hits stocks, the peso and borrowing costs together.
OPPORTUNITY
A cooler reading could ease pressure on rates and imported costs.
NEXT MOVE
Before the release, decide which of your prices you would raise if inflation comes in at 6.8% or higher.
● Gasoline to rise up to P2 a liter tomorrow, diesel to dip over P1
WHAT HAPPENED
GMA News reports that, based on a full week of Singapore pricing and the exchange rate, diesel is seen rolling back by P1.00 to P1.20 a liter and gasoline rising by P1.80 to P2.00 from tomorrow. A separate estimate from Jetti Petroleum, reported by the Inquirer, is narrower: gasoline up P1.50 to P1.80 and diesel down P0.50 to P0.80. Jetti’s president said China’s suspension of fuel exports fueled fears of worse product shortages. Last week, diesel fell P7.57 to P7.60 under the September 29 rollback.
UNCERTAIN
These are estimates. Fuel firms announce the official figures today, with prices taking effect at 6 a.m. tomorrow.
WHY IT MATTERS
The diesel dip is small next to last week’s cut, and gasoline is moving the other way.
RISK
Higher gasoline costs hit motorcycle and van deliveries.
OPPORTUNITY
A slightly cheaper diesel week for trucking and generators.
NEXT MOVE
Check today’s official announcement, then update delivery fees for gasoline-run vehicles only if the hike is confirmed.
● RTB-32 closes October 7, paying 6.875% before tax
WHAT HAPPENED
Rappler reports that the Bureau of the Treasury’s RTB-32 has a 2.5-year term and a 6.875% coupon paid quarterly, subject to a 20% final withholding tax. It drew P84.9 billion in orders on the first day against a P30 billion target. The minimum is P5,000. The Presidential Communications Office says the offer runs from September 29 to October 7, with settlement on October 12.
UNCERTAIN
The final amount raised is not yet announced.
WHY IT MATTERS
After the 20% tax, 6.875% is about 5.5% a year, our calculation. That is below the BSP’s September inflation range of 6.4% to 7.4%, so savers may lose buying power even while earning interest.
RISK
Your cash is locked for 2.5 years while rates may keep rising.
OPPORTUNITY
A fixed rate suits cash you will not need soon.
NEXT MOVE
If you have idle business cash, compare the after-tax RTB rate with your bank’s time deposit before October 7. This is not investment advice.
● Visayas push for emergency powers as the grid runs tight
WHAT HAPPENED
The Philippine Star reports that House Deputy Speaker Albee Benitez is pushing emergency powers for the President to fast-track fixes for the Visayas power shortage. Energy Secretary Sharon Garin backed the idea, saying power plants take three to five years to build. Context.ph adds that Visayas supply stood at about 2,575 megawatts against afternoon demand of 2,624. The Tribune reports that the Central Visayas Regional Development Council acted on a State of Power Emergency, citing more than 120 yellow and red alerts from January to September. It says outages hit manufacturing, BPOs, tourism, hospitals and shops.
UNCERTAIN
Emergency powers need Congress, and Benitez said he wants to see the actual draft first. The Tribune says the council declared an emergency, while BusinessMirror describes it as a request for the President to declare one.
WHY IT MATTERS
Brownouts mean lost output, equipment damage and higher costs, per the Tribune.
RISK
Repeated outages hurt production and customer service.
OPPORTUNITY
Sellers of backup power, solar and batteries may see more demand.
NEXT MOVE
Write a simple outage plan: backup power for key equipment, surge protection, cloud backups and a shift schedule.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● US hiring stalls at 29,000 and Fed hike bets fade
WHAT HAPPENED
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that payrolls rose by 29,000 in September and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Babypips notes that forecasts were between 84,000 and 95,000, and that July and August were cut by a combined 60,000 jobs. Stock futures rose and Treasury yields fell, and analysts cited by Babypips say an October Fed hike now looks unlikely. Bloomberg’s Monday wrap says Asian shares rose, with Japan’s Nikkei up about 2%, as Fed bets eased.
UNCERTAIN
One weak month may be revised. Bloomberg notes that part of the rise in unemployment came from more people looking for work. US inflation data on October 14 and the Fed meeting on October 28 still matter.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: fewer Fed hikes mean a softer dollar, which can ease pressure on the peso.
RISK
A weak US job market can also signal slower global demand.
OPPORTUNITY
A firmer peso would trim import costs.
NEXT MOVE
If you pay dollar suppliers, watch whether the peso holds below P62.70 before you convert.
Babypips → , US Bureau of Labor Statistics →
● OPEC+ holds output steady for November as supply stays short
WHAT HAPPENED
CNBC, citing Reuters, reports that OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to keep November production targets steady. Gulf producers are pumping well below their targets, with exports at 60% to 80% of normal levels in recent months. The seven core members produced 25 million barrels a day in August, still about 5 million below pre-war levels. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the market remains tight. The next meeting is on November 1.
UNCERTAIN
The war has delayed OPEC+’s capacity review, which sets 2027 quotas, per Reuters. Oil price quotes also differed across sources, partly because the Brent benchmark rolled to a new contract.
WHY IT MATTERS
Targets on paper do not add barrels. Supply stays short, which keeps fuel costs high.
RISK
Prices stay elevated while output is held back.
OPPORTUNITY
None clear for most SMEs.
NEXT MOVE
Keep a fuel cost line in your Q4 budget that can move in both directions.
● ASEAN energy ministers meet in Pasay this week
WHAT HAPPENED
The Daily Tribune reports that the Philippines hosts the 44th ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting at the PICC in Pasay City from October 5 to 9. As ASEAN chair, the Philippines wants to link immediate energy security with long-term resilience, including regional power connections, petroleum supply preparedness and clean energy investment. Context.ph adds that more than 1,500 delegates are expected at the parallel ASEAN Energy Business Forum, and that ministers will discuss the framework for coordinated action in major petroleum supply disruptions.
UNCERTAIN
Our read: such meetings often produce pledges and plans before they produce projects.
WHY IT MATTERS
The region is trying to protect itself from the same supply shocks that are lifting fuel prices here.
RISK
Little changes on the ground in the short term.
OPPORTUNITY
Energy-saving, solar and battery firms may find contacts at the business forum.
NEXT MOVE
If you sell energy products or services, check the forum program and see if you can attend or follow its announcements.
Daily Tribune → , Context.ph →
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Reliable power is becoming a product people will pay for
In the Visayas, supply is running about 49 megawatts short of afternoon demand, and officials are calling for emergency powers. At the same time, ASEAN energy ministers are meeting in Manila to talk about security of supply and clean energy investment.
Put together, they point to steady demand for anything that keeps the lights on: solar panels, batteries, generators, surge protection and energy-saving upgrades. Power plants take three to five years to build, as Secretary Garin said, so businesses will not wait for them.
If you sell in this space, talk to local clients about outage plans now. If you do not, you can still use the idea. A business that stays open during a brownout wins customers from one that closes.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
The headline number is not what you keep
RTB-32 pays 6.875% a year. It sounds good. But a 20% tax takes it to about 5.5%, and the BSP expects September inflation between 6.4% and 7.4%. After tax and rising prices, the real return may be below zero.
Your business has the same trap. A price increase of 5% feels like progress. But if your costs rose 7%, you went backward. The sales number went up while the money you keep went down.
So this week, do one simple check. Take your best-selling item, and compare today’s cost to what it cost three months ago. Then compare your price. If cost grew faster, you know what to fix first.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
Tomorrow’s inflation number decides the next move for stocks, the peso and rates
The fact. The BSP expects September inflation between 6.4% and 7.4%, against 6.1% in August. Context.ph reports that 2TradeAsia sees a relief rally toward 5,800 if the number is near or below 6.5%, and a test of 5,500 if it is 6.8% or higher, with a fourth BSP hike more likely on October 22.
What we do not know. The actual figure. It can land anywhere in the BSP’s range or outside it, and the broker’s levels are one view, not a rule.
Our read. The US jobs miss took some pressure off the dollar, but the BSP answers to local prices. Food, fuel and the weak peso are the drivers it named, so a hot reading would keep rate pressure on even with a calmer Fed. It is an interpretation, not a forecast.
- The PSA September inflation release tomorrow, October 6
- Official fuel price announcements today, with changes from 6 a.m. tomorrow
- The peso against P62.70 to P62.75, then P63
- The GCash IPO public offer opening tomorrow and running to October 12
- The BSP Monetary Board meeting on October 22
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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