Market & Mainstreet
Factories Pull Back, Stocks Keep Sliding, and China Halts Fuel Exports
The Daily Scan – October 02, 2026 (Fri)
Business is cooling while prices heat up. The S&P Global factory index fell to 49.6 in September from 54.9, with output, new orders and jobs all down. A BPI economist expects September inflation near 6.9% and says the next wave could be broader and stickier.
The PSEi fell for a fourth straight day to 5,629.47, and the peso closed at P62.775. GCash parent Mynt priced its record IPO at P6.60 a share, 34% below its P10 ceiling. The public offer runs October 6 to 12.
One new fuel risk: Chinese refiners have halted October fuel exports, which could keep diesel tight across Asia.
| USD to PHP | PH factory PMI | PSEi |
| P62.775 | 49.6, September, from 54.9 in August | 5,629.47, down 0.88% |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● GCash prices its record IPO at P6.60, well below the P10 ceiling
WHAT HAPPENED
Rappler reports that Mynt, the parent of GCash, set its final IPO price at P6.60 a share, valuing the company at about P442 billion. The price was set on October 1 and disclosed to the PSE on October 2. Retail investors can subscribe from October 6 to 12, and the company is targeting a listing on October 20 under the ticker GCASH. The Philippine Star reports the IPO would raise nearly P61 billion, against up to P92.3 billion at the ceiling price. A Reuters report says only about a fifth of the base offer is new shares.
UNCERTAIN
How the shares trade after October 20. Reuters first reported the price from two people familiar with the deal, and Mynt did not comment on it at the time.
WHY IT MATTERS
It is the biggest IPO in Philippine history, and a test of how much money local investors will put into stocks while the market is falling.
RISK
The offer pulls cash away from other stocks and deposits while the PSEi is weak.
OPPORTUNITY
A smooth listing could reopen the door for other companies planning IPOs.
NEXT MOVE
If you plan to subscribe between October 6 and 12, read the prospectus first. This is not investment advice.
● Philippine factories slip into contraction for the first time since April
WHAT HAPPENED
The Daily Tribune reports that the S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 in September from 54.9 in August. Below 50 means conditions worsened. Weak demand, high oil prices and strong foreign competition pushed output, new orders and employment lower. Output fell at its sharpest pace since November 2025. S&P Global economist Siân Jones said firms were also less sure about the year ahead because of pricing power worries. BusinessWorld adds that the Philippines had the second-lowest reading among the Southeast Asian economies it compared, and that firms still raised selling prices faster.
UNCERTAIN
One month does not make a trend. August was unusually strong, so part of the drop may be a pullback, our read.
WHY IT MATTERS
Weaker factory orders can flow down to suppliers, truckers and packaging firms.
RISK
Clients cut orders just as your own costs rise.
OPPORTUNITY
Suppliers who offer flexible order sizes can win business from cautious buyers.
NEXT MOVE
Call your top two business customers this week. Ask how their October orders look before you commit to new stock.
Daily Tribune → , BusinessWorld →
● BPI economist: the next inflation wave could be wider and more stubborn
WHAT HAPPENED
BusinessMirror reports that BPI Lead Economist Emilio Neri sees September inflation quickening to 6.9%, and a possible second peak that could push inflation above 7% in coming months. He says this wave is likely to be driven by food and labor costs, not only fuel. Rice prices stayed firm and transport costs rose as fuel relief proved short-lived. He argues fares and wages are less likely to reverse than fuel prices, which makes inflation harder to unwind.
UNCERTAIN
This is one bank’s forecast. The BSP’s own range is 6.4% to 7.4%, and the PSA releases the actual figure on October 6.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: if wages and fares stay up even when oil falls, your cost base may not come back down.
RISK
Costs that rise and stay high squeeze margins for months.
OPPORTUNITY
None clear, other than planning early.
NEXT MOVE
Build higher wage and transport costs into your 2027 budget now. Do not assume a fuel dip will undo them.
● Palace puts more than P46 billion behind its El Niño response
WHAT HAPPENED
The Manila Times reports that the Palace says P6.2 billion is ready for the Department of Agriculture to support farmers and fisherfolk hit by weather and fuel pressure, and P39.83 billion sits in this year’s disaster fund. The proposed 2027 budget includes P45.67 billion for the disaster fund, P11.18 billion for National Food Authority rice buffer stocks, P4.5 billion for crop insurance and P46.356 billion for irrigation. The Philippine Star reports the Palace urged the public not to panic, and warned that hoarding could cause unjustified price hikes.
UNCERTAIN
How fast the money reaches farmers. The Manila Times also notes that the budget department has said El Niño may slow government spending, especially on infrastructure.
WHY IT MATTERS
Food is the part of the price basket that El Niño hits hardest, and it is already pushing inflation up.
RISK
Food prices rise if the dry spell hits crops.
OPPORTUNITY
Sellers of water storage, irrigation gear and farm inputs may see more demand.
NEXT MOVE
If you run a food business, ask your suppliers now about 2027 prices and backup sources. Skip panic stockpiling.
The Manila Times → , PhilStar →
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● China halts October fuel exports, squeezing a tight Asian market
WHAT HAPPENED
Reuters reports that Chinese refiners have suspended oil product exports for October, according to four people briefed on it, as Beijing works to protect domestic stocks. China tightened exports in March, eased them in July, and has since managed shipments month by month. Asian diesel price spreads hit a two-week peak on expectations that Chinese supply will be missing. OilPrice adds that Kpler estimates China’s diesel and gasoil stocks are about 20 million barrels below pre-war levels.
UNCERTAIN
Whether exports resume after the National Day holiday ends on October 7. That depends on domestic stocks and refinery output, per Reuters’ sources.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: less Chinese diesel for sale in Asia raises the risk of higher diesel prices here, even if crude oil holds steady.
RISK
Another round of diesel price hikes, which hits freight and delivery costs.
OPPORTUNITY
None clear for most SMEs.
NEXT MOVE
Ask delivery partners how they plan to handle a diesel rise, and budget fuel flat or higher for the rest of October.
Reuters (via Euronext Live) → , OilPrice →
● Japan’s big manufacturers hit an eight-year high in business mood
WHAT HAPPENED
The Japan Times reports that the Bank of Japan’s tankan survey put large manufacturers’ sentiment at +24 for July to September, up from +22 and the sixth straight quarterly gain. Reuters says chip and AI demand helped, and many firms passed on higher raw material costs. Large non-manufacturers slipped to +35 from +37. Reuters adds that the survey eased pressure on the BOJ to raise rates again this month.
UNCERTAIN
The reading came in just below the +25 forecast, and the non-manufacturing side weakened. The picture is mixed.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: strong chip and AI demand across Asia supports Philippine electronics exports, which hit a record in August.
RISK
The boom is narrow and could fade if chip orders slow.
OPPORTUNITY
Firms serving electronics makers may see steady orders.
NEXT MOVE
If you supply or serve electronics firms, ask about their Q4 order plans.
● US jobs report lands tonight and could move the dollar and the peso
WHAT HAPPENED
Kiplinger previews the US September jobs report, due at 8:30 a.m. New York time on Friday, which is 8:30 p.m. in Manila. Economists expect about 93,000 new jobs and unemployment at 4.1%. ADP said private payrolls rose 90,000 in September, up from 36,000 in August. Barclays is more cautious and expects only 50,000. The Fed raised rates in September, its first hike in three years, per Kiplinger.
UNCERTAIN
The result is not out as we publish. Forecasts range widely, and the report can swing on one-off seasonal factors. The Fed’s next meeting is October 28.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: a strong report keeps the Fed hiking, which supports the dollar and pressures the peso, already near P63.
RISK
A hot number could push US yields and the dollar up again.
OPPORTUNITY
None clear for most SMEs.
NEXT MOVE
Check the result tonight before you send dollar payments or quote imported goods on Monday.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
A dry 2027 could open doors for the businesses that prepare
Two stories point in one direction. The Palace is putting billions behind El Niño preparation, from rice stocks to crop insurance and irrigation. And a BPI economist warns that food prices are part of a wider, more stubborn inflation wave.
Put together, water and food supply look like areas where demand may grow. Think water storage, efficient pumps, farm inputs, cold storage and food processing. If you already sell in one of those areas, this is a good time to talk to buyers early.
If you do not, start small. Pick one need that a farmer, canteen or small food business will have in a drought. Ask five of them what they would pay for.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
A fair price that closes beats a high price that stalls
Mynt first floated a price of up to P10 a share. It priced at P6.60, which is 34% lower. The Philippine Star reports that analysts had warned P10 was too demanding for the current economy. The company lowered the price, and the biggest offering in Philippine history is now on track.
There is a lesson in that for any founder. When the market tells you your price is too high, the stronger move is to adjust early and keep the deal alive. A product priced above what buyers will pay does not sell, no matter how good it is.
Look at your own price list this week. Is there one item that sits unsold? Test a lower price, or a smaller pack, before you let it gather dust.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
Factories are cutting back while prices keep rising
The fact. The factory PMI fell to 49.6 from 54.9. Output, new orders and employment all dropped, firms cut input buying and ran down inventories, and new export orders fell, per the Tribune and BusinessWorld. Even so, firms raised selling prices faster. At the same time, BPI’s Emilio Neri expects inflation to come in near 6.9% and says the next wave may be harder to unwind, per BusinessMirror.
What we do not know. Whether September is a one-off. The reading is just under 50, and August was a nine-year high, so some of the drop may be a pullback. The actual inflation figure is also not out yet.
Our read. Weak demand and rising prices at the same time is the hardest mix for a small business. You cannot easily raise prices, and you cannot cut costs fast. It is an interpretation, not a forecast. The sensible response is to stay lean and keep cash handy.
- The PSA September inflation release on October 6
- China’s decision on fuel exports after October 7
- Tonight’s US jobs report and the peso against P63
- The BSP Monetary Board meeting on October 22
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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