Market & Mainstreet
S&P and ADB Slash PH Growth Forecasts as Oil Snaps Its Five-Day Slide
The Daily Scan – September 24, 2026 (Thu)
S&P Global Ratings and the ADB both slashed their 2026 Philippine growth forecasts, with S&P’s cut to 2.9% the steepest in the Asia-Pacific region it covers. The PSEi fell to its lowest close in more than three months, and oil jumped 3.9% overnight after Iran’s president told the UN his country “will not surrender,” undoing days of declines. The government will offer P30 billion in retail treasury bonds starting next week, and the Visayas faces a five-hour red alert on its power grid today. In Washington, Xi Jinping landed for his summit with Trump, and the US and China have already extended their tariff truce to January, days ahead of the original deadline.
| USD to PHP | 2026 GDP forecast | PSEi |
| P62.74 | 2.9% to 3.3% | 5,795.14, down 0.33% |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● S&P and ADB both cut PH growth forecasts, with S&P’s downgrade the sharpest in the region
WHAT HAPPENED
S&P Global Ratings cut its 2026 Philippine GDP growth forecast to 2.9% from 4.1%, a 1.2 percentage point downgrade, its steepest cut among the Asia-Pacific economies it covers. The ADB trimmed its own forecast to 3.3% from 3.8%. Both cited elevated energy and food prices, tighter monetary policy, and weak investment. PSA data showed gross capital formation contracted 9.2% in the second quarter, with fixed investment down 13.7% and construction down 14.8%.
UNCERTAIN
If either forecast holds, the Philippines would miss the government’s own 3.5% to 4.5% growth target for a fourth consecutive year. Both agencies expect a rebound in 2027, though ADB also trimmed that forecast, to 5.1% from 5.3%.
WHY IT MATTERS
Two independent forecasters converged on the same story: the drag on growth isn’t just the Middle East war or global trade tensions. It’s investment and construction activity that simply isn’t happening at home.
RISK
A fourth straight year of missing growth targets signals a structural issue, not a one-off shock.
OPPORTUNITY
Both agencies still expect 2027 to be stronger, which gives businesses a rough timeline to plan around.
NEXT MOVE
If your business serves construction, real estate, or capital goods, treat this as confirmation that the slowdown there is real and not just anecdotal. Budget conservatively through the rest of the year.
● PSEi falls below 5,800 for the first time in months, peso holds flat
WHAT HAPPENED
The PSEi dropped 19.42 points, or 0.33%, to close at 5,795.14 on Wednesday, its fourth straight losing session and its lowest close in more than three months. Philstocks Financial research manager Japhet Tantiangco cited weak confidence around inflation and growth, compounded by rising local Treasury yields. Foreign investors were net sellers, with P1.04 billion in outflows. The peso held essentially flat at P62.74.
UNCERTAIN
Only the property sector closed higher on the day, up 0.45%. Whether this is a bottom or a continuing slide depends heavily on how Thursday’s Trump-Xi summit and the Middle East situation develop.
WHY IT MATTERS
A stable peso alongside a falling stock market tells you the pressure right now is domestic growth concerns, not currency flight.
RISK
Four straight losing sessions with foreign investors pulling out is a sign of eroding confidence, not a blip.
OPPORTUNITY
A flat peso means your import costs aren’t compounding on top of a falling market.
NEXT MOVE
If you or your business hold equities, this is not a week to make emotional moves. Watch whether the market stabilizes once today’s Trump-Xi summit outcome is known.
● Government to offer P30 billion in retail bonds starting next week
WHAT HAPPENED
The Bureau of the Treasury will offer at least P30 billion in retail treasury bonds (RTBs) to small investors, with a 2.5-year maturity due in 2029. The offer period runs Sept. 29 to Oct. 7, with the bonds issued Oct. 12. This marks the government’s 25th year of tapping retail investors through this program.
UNCERTAIN
The final coupon rate was not yet set as of the offering notice. A separate BusinessWorld report noted the Treasury expects lower volume from this offer compared to prior rounds, without detailing why.
WHY IT MATTERS
With local Treasury yields climbing this month, this RTB round is likely to offer a meaningfully better rate than recent issuances, a relevant option for anyone parking cash for the next few years.
RISK
A 2.5-year lock-in means your money isn’t liquid if you need it sooner.
OPPORTUNITY
Rising yields this month mean this RTB round could price better for savers than the last few rounds did.
NEXT MOVE
If you keep idle business or personal cash in a savings account, watch for the announced coupon rate next week and compare it against your bank’s time deposit rates before the Oct. 7 close.
● Visayas grid faces a five-hour red alert today
WHAT HAPPENED
The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines placed the Visayas grid under a red alert for five hours, from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. today, warning of possible power interruptions as the region continues to deal with thin electricity supply.
UNCERTAIN
The report did not specify which provinces or cities are most at risk of actual outages, or the underlying cause of the thin supply beyond general grid strain.
WHY IT MATTERS
A red alert means available capacity is critically close to demand. Businesses in the Visayas, including Cebu, should treat this evening as a real risk window, not a routine notice.
RISK
Power interruptions between 4 and 9 p.m. today could hit point-of-sale systems, refrigeration, and production lines without warning.
OPPORTUNITY
A known window means you can prepare, charge devices, back up files, or delay non-essential equipment use during those hours.
NEXT MOVE
If you run a business in the Visayas, check your backup power situation before 4 p.m. today and let staff know outages are possible through 9 p.m.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● Oil jumps 3.9% after Iran’s president tells the UN his country “will not surrender”
WHAT HAPPENED
Brent crude rose 3.9% to close at $103.08 a barrel on Wednesday, ending five straight days of declines. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the UN General Assembly that attempts to force Iran to surrender had failed, and Iran’s military separately warned it was ready to launch “more crushing” strikes in response to Trump’s earlier threat to “annihilate” the country. Trump had also described a “very productive” meeting with Iranian envoys just a day earlier.
UNCERTAIN
The public rhetoric from both sides hardened even as backchannel talks reportedly continued. It is unclear which track, the public defiance or the private meetings, will matter more in the coming days.
WHY IT MATTERS
This reverses the trend this week’s earlier editions flagged: oil’s five-day decline, which had raised hopes for a lighter fuel price adjustment next Tuesday, just ended in a single session.
RISK
A single hardline speech undid nearly a week of falling oil prices. Sentiment here is fragile in both directions.
OPPORTUNITY
Prices are still below the highs seen earlier this month, so this is a partial reversal, not a return to peak levels.
NEXT MOVE
Shelve any expectation of a lighter fuel price adjustment next Tuesday. Budget for prices closer to this week’s levels rather than a discount.
● US and China extend their tariff truce to January as Xi lands in Washington
WHAT HAPPENED
Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Washington Wednesday for his first US visit in over a decade, greeted personally by Trump at Joint Base Andrews. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced during the arrival that the two countries’ top officials had agreed to extend their tariff truce to January, under which both sides scale back tariffs and hold off new trade restrictions. The formal summit, including a state arrival ceremony and black-tie dinner with tech leaders, proceeds today, Thursday.
UNCERTAIN
Bessent said he wasn’t sure whether a bigger deal could still be reached or whether the current terms would simply roll forward. Trump had not yet commented on the extension as of Wednesday evening.
WHY IT MATTERS
This resolves the Nov. 10 deadline this week’s earlier editions flagged as a risk point. The truce now runs into January, giving Asian supply chains, including Philippine importers and exporters, a longer runway before the next tariff cliff.
RISK
An extension is not a permanent resolution. The same cliff simply moved to January.
OPPORTUNITY
A longer, confirmed runway is more useful for planning than the uncertain Nov. 10 deadline was.
NEXT MOVE
If US or China trade affects your business, update your planning horizon from November to January and watch today’s summit for any further detail on the extension’s terms.
● RCEP, the world’s largest trade bloc, moves to add five more economies
WHAT HAPPENED
At ASEAN meetings held in Manila, RCEP trade ministers agreed to set up an ad hoc working group to lay out an accession process for Bangladesh, Chile, Hong Kong, and Sri Lanka to potentially join the trade bloc. RCEP already includes all 10 ASEAN states, plus Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand.
UNCERTAIN
No timeline was given for when any of the four prospective economies might formally join. This is the start of a process, not a completed accession.
WHY IT MATTERS
A larger RCEP means a larger pool of countries where Philippine exporters could eventually access preferential tariffs, though that benefit is still years away if it materializes.
RISK
Accession processes for trade blocs typically take years, so don’t expect near-term impact.
OPPORTUNITY
Hong Kong’s potential entry in particular could matter for Philippine firms using it as a logistics or finance hub.
NEXT MOVE
This is a long-horizon story worth filing away rather than acting on now. Revisit it when a formal accession timeline is announced.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
The growth downgrade already assumed high energy costs. Today’s oil price confirms it.
S&P and the ADB both cut their 2026 growth forecasts this week, and both cited elevated energy prices as a factor. That assumption just got reinforced: oil jumped 3.9% overnight, undoing five days of declines, after Iran’s president told the UN his country will not surrender.
This isn’t a coincidence you can do much about, but it is useful to see clearly. The forecasters weren’t guessing. They built their downgrades around exactly the kind of volatility that just played out in real time.
The opportunity here is narrow but real: if the professional forecasters are already assuming elevated costs through the rest of the year, you don’t need to wait for further bad news to start planning around it. The uncertainty is already priced into the official outlook. Your own Q4 numbers should be too.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
The boring problem is usually the bigger one.
When S&P and the ADB explained why they cut their growth forecasts, the headline reasons were the ones everyone already expected: the Middle East war, high energy prices, global trade tension. But buried in the same reports was a quieter number that did more damage: gross capital formation, a measure of investment in the economy, contracted 9.2% in the second quarter. Construction fell 14.8%.
That’s not a war story. That’s a story about projects not breaking ground, investments not getting approved, spending not happening on schedule. It’s unglamorous. It doesn’t make for dramatic headlines. And it’s a bigger structural drag than most of the news cycle gives it credit for.
Founders do the same thing to their own businesses. It’s easy to blame a bad quarter on the economy, a competitor, a supplier problem, something external and dramatic. It’s harder to admit that the hiring you delayed, the system you didn’t fix, or the follow-up you kept putting off is quietly costing more than the headline problem ever did. The external shock gets the blame. The boring backlog does the damage.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
A five-day slide erased in one session. That volatility is the real story for your fuel costs.
Track the last three editions of this newsletter and you’ll see a pattern breaking in real time. Monday: diesel jumps on last week’s high oil. Tuesday: oil starts falling as diplomacy hints emerge. Wednesday: oil keeps falling, hitting a two-week low, on reports Iran might reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Then, overnight: all of it reverses.
| +3.9% | 5 days | $103.08 |
| Brent’s Wednesday move, its biggest single-day jump in weeks | Length of the losing streak that ended Wednesday | Brent’s new close, back near where it stood a week ago |
What changed wasn’t a new attack or a new blockade. It was a speech. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the UN his country “cannot be made to surrender,” a direct rebuttal to Trump’s threat two days earlier to “annihilate” Iran if no deal is reached. Iran’s military added its own warning about “more crushing” strikes. None of that is a physical supply disruption. It’s rhetoric. But oil traders treated it as a real signal that a near-term resolution just got less likely.
Our read: this is the clearest evidence yet that fuel prices this quarter are being driven less by actual barrels moving and more by which side is talking tougher on a given day. That makes near-term prediction close to useless and makes planning for volatility the only real strategy. The DOE’s own statement this week, that prices will likely stay elevated through Christmas, looks more accurate after today than it did when they said it.
What to watch next: whether Thursday’s Trump-Xi summit adds a second source of market-moving news, and whether Saudi Arabia’s pipeline restart, still in progress, provides a supply-side counterweight to the rhetoric.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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