Market & Mainstreet
Rates are Still Rising Around the Region, and the BSP may be Next
The Daily Scan – September 30, 2026 (Wed)
Borrowing is getting dearer across the region. Australia raised its rate to 4.60% yesterday. Wall Street expects the US Fed to hike again in October. One think tank says the BSP will add one more hike before year-end.
The PSEi fell for a second straight session, to 5,738.40, and foreign investors sold about P973 million net. The peso closed at P62.565 to the dollar.
Two costs land soon. Air fuel surcharges rise to Level 17 from tomorrow, and a trade summit warned Filipino makers that RCEP only opens the door to export markets.
| USD to PHP | BSP policy rate | PSEi |
| P62.565 | 5.0% | 5,738.40, down 0.87% |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Economists see one more BSP rate hike before year-end
WHAT HAPPENED
BusinessWorld reports that London-based Capital Economics expects the BSP to keep tightening. It sees inflation staying around 6% for the rest of the year, and says that plus fresh pressure on the peso will prompt one more hike. The policy rate is now 5%, after three straight 25 basis point hikes, the latest in August. August inflation was 6.1%, the sixth straight month above the BSP’s target. Governor Eli Remolona has said he hopes no more hikes are needed but has kept the door open.
UNCERTAIN
This is one forecaster’s view, not a BSP decision. The Monetary Board’s next meeting is on October 22, per the Daily Tribune.
WHY IT MATTERS
Bank loan and credit line rates follow the policy rate. As a rough estimate, each 0.25-point rise adds about P2,500 a year in interest per P1 million of variable-rate debt, if a bank passes it all through.
RISK
Variable-rate loans get more expensive, and sales are already soft.
OPPORTUNITY
Firms with spare cash may earn more on deposits.
NEXT MOVE
Ask your bank how fast a rate change reaches your loan or credit line. Get a fixed-rate quote before October 22.
● PSEi drops again as foreign investors keep selling
WHAT HAPPENED
Radar PH reports that the PSEi fell 50.47 points, or 0.87%, to 5,738.40 on Tuesday. It was the second straight losing session. The peso closed at P62.565 per dollar, 2 centavos weaker than Monday, and touched P62.62 during the day. The Philippine Stock Exchange’s own figures show foreign investors sold about P973 million more than they bought.
UNCERTAIN
Whether the slide continues today. Radar PH describes investors as cautious and does not name a single trigger.
WHY IT MATTERS
A weaker peso raises the cost of imported goods, inputs and dollar-priced services.
RISK
Imported costs creep up while the peso stays near P62.5.
OPPORTUNITY
Businesses that earn dollars gain from a weak peso.
NEXT MOVE
Quote imported items with a small currency buffer, and update quotes that are more than a few days old.
● Air tickets and air cargo cost more starting tomorrow
WHAT HAPPENED
The Manila Times reports that the Civil Aeronautics Board raised the allowed fuel surcharge to Level 17 for October 1 to 15, up from Level 14 in the second half of September. Passengers can be charged P559 to P1,635 one way on domestic flights and P1,846.10 to P13,726.58 on international ones. For cargo, the cap is P2.87 to P8.40 per kilo domestic and P9.49 to P70.57 per kilo international. Dollar-based surcharges use a rate of P62.71.
UNCERTAIN
These are ceilings. Each airline decides whether to charge them, and the level resets every 15 days.
WHY IT MATTERS
Business travel and air-shipped orders get costlier. As a rough estimate, a 5-kilo domestic parcel could carry P14 to P42 extra if a carrier charges the full cap.
RISK
Shipping costs eat margin on small orders.
OPPORTUNITY
Non-urgent orders can move by sea or land to save money.
NEXT MOVE
Check your shipping quotes for October 1 to 15. Offer a slower, cheaper shipping option at checkout.
● Trade summit: RCEP opens doors, but Filipino goods must earn shelf space
WHAT HAPPENED
BusinessWorld reports that an SM Investments economist told the RCEP Business and Investment Summit in Manila that Philippine firms should use the trade pact to sell more abroad, not only to import. He noted that Korean, Japanese and Thai goods are common on Philippine shelves, while Filipino products are less visible in supermarkets elsewhere in Asia. RCEP has covered the Philippines since June 2023.
UNCERTAIN
The report gives no figures on how much RCEP has lifted Philippine exports so far.
WHY IT MATTERS
Preferential access and shared origin rules exist. Winning buyers is still the seller’s job.
RISK
Competitors from RCEP countries keep gaining ground in our own market.
OPPORTUNITY
Small firms with clear labels and quality papers can test a nearby market.
NEXT MOVE
Pick one product and one RCEP market. Ask one buyer or distributor there what documents they need.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● Wall Street slips as yields climb and US shoppers lose heart
WHAT HAPPENED
BNN Bloomberg, carrying an Associated Press report, says US stocks closed lower on Tuesday as long-term Treasury yields rose again. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%. Wall Street expects the Fed to raise rates again in October. Yahoo Finance reports the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 in September from 88.6 in August, the lowest since 2014.
UNCERTAIN
Friday’s US jobs report may change rate bets either way.
WHY IT MATTERS
US rates and the dollar set the mood for borrowing costs across Asia. They also weigh on the peso.
RISK
A stronger dollar and higher US yields keep pressure on the peso.
OPPORTUNITY
None clear for most SMEs.
NEXT MOVE
Watch Friday’s US jobs report before you fix prices on imported stock.
● Australia raises its cash rate to 4.60%, its fourth hike this year
WHAT HAPPENED
The Bull reports that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on Tuesday, in a unanimous vote. It is the highest level since 2011. The board said it will do what it judges necessary, including raising the rate again if needed. Admiral Markets adds that the next decision is on November 3.
UNCERTAIN
Whether another hike follows. Governor Michele Bullock did not signal a specific next move, per Admiral Markets.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: another central bank chose inflation control over growth. That backs the case for a firm line at the BSP too.
RISK
Loan costs stay high in more places for longer.
OPPORTUNITY
Savers keep decent deposit yields.
NEXT MOVE
Plan expansion loans on the assumption that rates stay high through 2026.
● Oil hovers near $105 as Iran talks stay stuck and the US eyes diesel options
WHAT HAPPENED
A Cornerstone Futures market note from Tuesday morning puts Brent at $104.91 and WTI at $92.27. It says Trump denied offering Iran any sanctions relief, while US and Iranian officials keep talking through mediators about an amended seven-day proposal. The note also cites Reuters saying the White House is leaning toward wider sales of red-dyed diesel instead of a diesel export ban. It cites Kpler data that Middle East exports hit 12.8 million barrels a day in September, the highest since February, though much still moves through costly workarounds.
UNCERTAIN
The diesel options are proposals, not policy. The note quotes a US official as saying a deal looks unlikely.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: a US diesel export ban would tighten world diesel supply, which matters for pump prices here.
RISK
Talks fail and oil jumps again.
OPPORTUNITY
None clear. A deal would lower fuel costs.
NEXT MOVE
Keep a fuel cost line in your October budget that can move up as well as down.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
When credit gets dearer, sales have to do more work
The BSP may hike once more. Australia just did. The Fed may follow in October. Borrowing will not get cheap soon, so the best answer is not more debt. It is more customers.
That is where the RCEP story fits. The pact already gives lower tariffs on many goods inside the region, and the summit’s message is that Filipino sellers have to use it. A small firm can start light. Pick one product, one market and one buyer, and ask what they need to say yes.
Meanwhile, keep your own costs firm. Price air-shipped orders with the new surcharge in mind, and check what a rate hike would do to your loan payments.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Access is not demand
A trade deal can cut a tariff. It cannot make a buyer choose you. The speaker at the summit made the same point in plain words: Filipino products still have to earn their place on foreign shelves, just as Korean, Japanese and Thai goods earned theirs here.
You may feel this in your own business. A new channel, a new platform or a new market opens up, and nothing happens on its own. The door is open. The buyer still needs a reason.
So this week, take one product you believe in and write down who would buy it in one new place, and what would make them say yes. Then ask one real person. Do not build a plan before you have had that one conversation.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
The whole region is still tightening
The fact. Australia raised its rate for the fourth time this year, per The Bull. Wall Street expects a Fed hike in October, per BNN Bloomberg. Capital Economics expects one more BSP hike, per BusinessWorld. The PSEi lost two sessions in a row as yields and oil stayed high, per Radar PH.
What we do not know. None of these hikes have been decided except Australia’s. The BSP has not said it will hike, and the Fed has not either.
Our read. When several central banks lean the same way, cheap money is not coming back in the next few months. For an SME, that argues for tighter cash control now, not later. It is an interpretation, not a forecast.
- Friday’s US jobs report
- The BSP Monetary Board meeting on October 22
- Any move in US-Iran talks, because oil feeds inflation and the hiking cycle
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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