Market & Mainstreet
BSP Seen Hiking Again as US Inflation Runs Hot, Nvidia Sinks and Oil Dips Below $90
The Daily Scan – November 11, 2026 (Wed)
Economists now expect the BSP to raise rates again in December despite 2.1 percent growth. The Pax Silica tech hub deal won’t be signed during Trump’s visit next week, but the government still aims to sign it before year-end. Cebu businesses say they are holding back on expansion, and Globe earned record revenue but lower profit as debt and currency losses rose. Abroad, US inflation came in hotter than expected and a Fed hike in December looks more likely, Nvidia lost about $470 billion in two days, and Brent briefly dipped below $90 for the first time since August. For business owners: plan for high interest rates through early 2027, ride today’s 11.11 sales, and watch your debt and dollar exposure.
| US core CPI (Oct.) | US 10-year yield | Brent low | BSP rate (seen Dec.) |
| +0.3% |
5.00% |
~$89.2 |
5.75% |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Economists expect more BSP rate hikes despite slow growth
WHAT HAPPENED
Economists still expect the BSP to keep raising rates even after third-quarter growth fell to 2.1 percent, The Philippine Star reported on Nov. 11. HSBC’s Aris Dacanay expects a 25-basis-point hike to 5.75 percent next month, which would likely end the tightening cycle, and said weak growth made a 50-basis-point move less likely. Bank of America sees a 25-basis-point hike in December and another in February 2027, taking the rate to 6 percent. BPI’s Emilio Neri Jr. warned that “pausing too early could allow inflation to become more entrenched.” HSBC noted household spending grew just 2.4 percent, its weakest outside the pandemic since 2010.
UNCERTAIN
The size of the next move. Last night’s hot US inflation figures add pressure, but the weak economy argues for caution.
WHY IT MATTERS
Higher rates make business loans, credit cards and car and housing loans more expensive, and they slow spending further.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: higher borrowing costs into 2027. Opportunity: businesses with cash can negotiate better deals as competitors hold back.
NEXT MOVE
If you need a loan, lock in a fixed rate now rather than waiting. Pay down variable-rate debt where you can.
● The Pax Silica tech hub deal won’t be signed during Trump’s visit
WHAT HAPPENED
The master agreement for the proposed Pax Silica advanced manufacturing hub is still being negotiated, and a US statement said it will not be signed during the ASEAN Summit in Manila, Context.ph reported on Nov. 11. Trade Undersecretary Ceferino Rodolfo said the Philippines still aims to sign before the end of 2026, which would keep the proposed two-year development period on track. “There is really no significant substantive issue that would prevent us from signing,” he said, adding that the project deserves its own ceremony: “We do not need to piggyback it with another important event.”
UNCERTAIN
When and where it will be signed. The venue and timing are not final, and it depends on wrapping up talks with the US State Department.
WHY IT MATTERS
The hub is meant to bring big US tech investment and thousands of jobs to Central Luzon over time.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: further delays. Opportunity: more time for local businesses in Tarlac and Pampanga to prepare to serve it.
NEXT MOVE
Don’t expect big announcements on this during the Trump visit. If you’re positioning for the hub, think in years, not weeks.
● Cebu businesses turn cautious as growth slows
WHAT HAPPENED
The Cebu Chamber of Commerce and Industry said Cebu businesses are cautious but hopeful after third-quarter growth slowed to 2.1 percent, SunStar Cebu reported. Firms are becoming more selective about expansion and new investment because of rising costs and uncertainty, and the chamber warned that weak investment could limit hiring. “Behind every declining GDP figure are struggling MSMEs,” said Rey Calooy, chairman emeritus of the Filipino-Cebuano Business Club. Cebu-based economist Fernando Fajardo said the figures show a continuing loss of momentum and deeper structural problems.
UNCERTAIN
How long the caution lasts. It depends on inflation, interest rates and whether government spending picks up.
WHY IT MATTERS
When established businesses hold back on expansion, suppliers, contractors and service providers get fewer new contracts.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: slower demand for B2B services in Cebu and Central Visayas. Opportunity: helping businesses cut costs and work more efficiently.
NEXT MOVE
If you sell to businesses, pitch savings and efficiency rather than expansion projects for the next few months.
● Globe earns record revenue, but debt and currency losses cut profit
WHAT HAPPENED
Globe Telecom’s service revenue rose 6 percent to a record P129 billion in the first nine months, but net income fell 7 percent to P16.5 billion, InsiderPH reported. Financing costs jumped 51 percent to P18.2 billion, including P13.5 billion in interest and P4.2 billion in foreign exchange losses, and total debt reached P272.1 billion. Mobile data grew 10 percent, with average usage rising to 17 GB a month, and fiber subscribers grew 30 percent. GCash’s parent, Mynt, contributed 28 percent of Globe’s pretax income. CEO Carl Cruz said “connectivity remains an essential household expenditure.”
UNCERTAIN
The fourth quarter. Cruz flagged inflation and tighter household budgets as risks.
WHY IT MATTERS
Mobile data use and fiber connections are still growing, even as some low-income households cut back. GCash is now a major part of Globe’s business.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: steady growth in mobile data and digital payments. Risk: telco price increases if financing costs stay high.
NEXT MOVE
Make sure customers can pay you through GCash and other e-wallets, especially for small purchases.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● US inflation runs hotter than expected, raising odds of a December Fed hike
WHAT HAPPENED
US consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in October, above the 0.3 percent expected, and core prices rose 0.3 percent against 0.2 percent expected, TheStreet reported. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 5 percent. The Dow fell 0.3 percent, the S&P 500 0.38 percent and the Nasdaq 0.74 percent. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said, “I would still support a 25-basis point increase in the FOMC’s policy rate at our December meeting,” and said a half-point move should be considered if core prices keep rising at this pace.
UNCERTAIN
The size of the Fed’s December move: a quarter or a half point.
WHY IT MATTERS
Higher US rates and a 5 percent Treasury yield pull money toward the dollar, which pressures the peso and keeps the BSP leaning toward hikes.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: the peso weakening again. Opportunity: exporters and dollar earners get more pesos.
NEXT MOVE
If you have dollar payments due before Christmas, don’t wait for the peso to strengthen much further.
● Nvidia heads for a $470 billion two-day loss as the CEO scandal deepens
WHAT HAPPENED
Nvidia shares fell more than 6 percent on Tuesday after a 4.3 percent drop on Monday, on track to erase more than $470 billion in market value in two days, GMA News reported, carrying Reuters. Microsoft overtook Nvidia as the world’s second most valuable company. CEO Jensen Huang has admitted to an affair with a Chinese businesswoman alleged to be a spy for Beijing. The FBI is examining whether he was targeted by a foreign intelligence operation, and Nvidia’s board has opened its own investigation. The Information reported, citing unnamed sources, that the relationship helped facilitate at least $7.5 billion in chip shipments to Chinese firms, which Reuters could not verify.
UNCERTAIN
Whether this stays a company problem or leads to new US restrictions on AI chips. Bank of America said, “We would not equate allegations with proven business damage.”
WHY IT MATTERS
Nvidia sits at the center of the AI boom that drives Philippine electronics exports. New chip export restrictions could slow the whole supply chain.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: tighter rules on AI chips affecting electronics orders.
NEXT MOVE
If your business depends on electronics or tech clients, watch for any new US chip rules in the coming weeks.
● Brent briefly dips below $90 for the first time since August
WHAT HAPPENED
Brent crude briefly fell to about $89.20 a barrel on Tuesday, its first time below $90 since August, before settling near $91.50, The Rio Times reported. US crude settled near $86. President Trump said the Iran war would end “fairly soon,” Qatar has been mediating, and oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again, though attacks on ships continue. No deal terms have been made public.
UNCERTAIN
Whether the drop holds. The fall rests on hope rather than an agreement, and prices can reverse quickly.
WHY IT MATTERS
If oil stays near $90, local pump prices could fall again next week.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: more fuel relief. Risk: a quick reversal on bad news from the talks.
NEXT MOVE
Pass fuel savings on through delivery promos, but avoid long-term commitments based on today’s prices.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
11.11 is today, and live selling is where the deals are
The 11.11 sale runs today and tomorrow, with Shopee releasing vouchers in batches from midnight and refreshing flash deals hourly, and Lazada’s best LazMall vouchers often selling out within the first hour, according to TipidNation’s 11.11 guide. On TikTok Shop, the sale is an extended livestream event, with creators running back-to-back flash-sale streams and some codes that “only unlock while the stream is live.” Vouchers for products featured in livestreams reportedly beat the standard app-wide code. The guide is an affiliate site and its claims are not backed by sales data, but the direction is clear: more of the action is happening in live streams and through creators. For sellers, the opportunity today is to go live, partner with small creators who can sell to their followers, and feature a few hero products with stream-only codes. For agencies, today is a chance to watch which streams and formats perform, then sell that playbook to clients for 12.12 and Christmas.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Your best young people have options abroad
An OCTA Research survey conducted in March found that 81 percent of young Filipinos are open to working abroad for better pay, and 73 percent of college graduates want to migrate, De La Salle University professor John Iremil Teodoro wrote in a Daily Guardian column on Nov. 11. Across all adults surveyed, 57 percent want to migrate. About 10.8 million Filipinos already live or work abroad, roughly 10 percent of the population. Teodoro attributes the pressure to low wages, limited local jobs, expensive health care and corruption. The lesson for any business owner: if most of your young staff would leave for better pay abroad, you are always competing with the world for talent. You may not be able to match overseas salaries, but you can offer what they often can’t: flexible schedules, real responsibility, skills training, a clear path to promotion and a workplace where people feel valued. Talk to your best people this month about where they see themselves in two years.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
Talk of the Iran war ending is growing, but no deal yet
After meeting Qatar’s prime minister on Monday, President Trump said he considers the Iran war effectively over and that the US likely won’t need to use force because talks are going well, Al Jazeera reported in an analysis on Nov. 10. In a separate interview, however, he said the US “may have to hit Pickaxe Mountain,” a site Washington says hides an underground nuclear facility. Iran’s Mohsen Rezaei dismissed reports of progress as “fake news” and repeated Tehran’s seven conditions, including lifting the US naval blockade and unfreezing Iranian assets. Negar Mortazavi of the Center for International Policy said the midterm losses have sharply raised the political cost of escalation, while analyst Hamidreza Azizi said he sees no sign of a breakthrough. Our reading: the direction is toward de-escalation, which is why oil is falling. But a deal is not done, and the two sides are still far apart. Plan for lower fuel costs in the coming weeks, but keep a buffer in case talks fail.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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