Market & Mainstreet
Wages Rise, the Peso Firms and Growth Picks Up as America Counts Its Votes
The Daily Scan – November 04, 2026 (Tue)
It’s a week of waiting on big numbers. US midterm results are coming in this morning, Manila time, October inflation is due this week and BPI expects third-quarter growth of 3.2 percent. The peso strengthened to 63.47 as oil eased, though stocks fell. Minimum wages in Western Visayas rise by up to P45 a day from Nov. 19. The Palace says the President won’t interfere with Congress on the 2027 budget but will reject unsupported additions. Abroad, the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island even as Iran signaled more openness to talks, and AI worries spread from Wall Street to Asian chip stocks. For business owners: update your payroll if you are in Western Visayas, keep pricing flexible until inflation data lands, and avoid big dollar moves while US results settle.
| Peso close | PSEi | Brent | W. Visayas wage |
| ₱63.47/$ |
5,624.17 |
~$106 |
₱590/day |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Western Visayas minimum wage rises up to P45 a day from Nov. 19
WHAT HAPPENED
About 214,757 minimum wage earners in Western Visayas get a raise starting Nov. 19 under Wage Order No. VI-30, the Daily Guardian reported on Nov. 4, citing DOLE Western Visayas. Workers in non-farm businesses with more than 10 employees go from P550 to P590 a day. Those in businesses with 10 or fewer employees go from P525 to P565, and farm workers from P520 to P565. About 68,000 kasambahays get P500 more a month, from P6,500 to P7,000. The order covers Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Guimaras, Iloilo, Iloilo City and Negros Occidental, including Bacolod.
UNCERTAIN
How small businesses absorb the increase. Wage board chair Sixto Rodriguez Jr. called the order a “job-preserving balance” and said, “we have to respect the capacity of employers to pay.” Small employers with thin margins will feel it most.
WHY IT MATTERS
Labor costs go up by about 7 to 9 percent for minimum wage employers in the region, on top of high fuel and power costs.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: squeezed margins for small shops, restaurants and farms. Opportunity: more spending power for workers ahead of Christmas.
NEXT MOVE
If you operate in Western Visayas, update your payroll for the Nov. 19 cutoff and review your prices on labor-heavy products and services now.
● The peso strengthens to 63.47 as oil eases, but stocks fall
WHAT HAPPENED
The peso closed Tuesday at 63.47 per dollar, 27 centavos stronger than Friday’s 63.74, The Manila Times reported on Nov. 4. Analysts credited lower oil prices, with Brent at about $106 from $118 on Oct. 30, a weaker dollar and expected BSP rate hikes. The PSEi fell 0.99 percent to 5,624.17, its low for the day, with foreign investors selling a net P258.78 million. Traders cited higher oil after the reported US strike on Iran, weak regional markets and caution before the US elections and this week’s inflation data.
UNCERTAIN
Whether the peso’s recovery lasts. AB Capital reported a slightly different close of 63.52, and the US election results and Middle East news could swing it again.
WHY IT MATTERS
A firmer peso gives importers a little breathing room on dollar costs after weeks above 64.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: a window to pay dollar bills at a better rate. Risk: the peso turning quickly if oil jumps again.
NEXT MOVE
If you have dollar payments due this month, consider paying part of them now while the peso is stronger.
● BPI expects third-quarter growth to pick up to 3.2 percent
WHAT HAPPENED
The Bank of the Philippine Islands expects the economy to have grown 3.2 percent in the third quarter, up from 2.3 percent in the second, Context.ph reported on Nov. 4, citing BPI lead economist Jun Neri. BPI pointed to a low base from last year’s infrastructure delays, strong demand for AI electronics exports, firmer power use, growing demand for EVs and green technology, and faster government spending. Headwinds include about P12.4 billion in damage from monsoon rains and storms, higher food prices, cautious households and businesses, and weak vehicle sales and private construction.
UNCERTAIN
The official figure. This is one bank’s forecast, and the report described the recovery as “shallow and uneven.”
WHY IT MATTERS
Growth near 3 percent is still well below the 5 to 6 percent businesses were used to, so demand remains soft in many sectors.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: electronics exports and government projects are the bright spots. Risk: consumer spending and private building stay weak.
NEXT MOVE
Focus your sales efforts on customers tied to exports, power and government projects, where money is still moving.
● The Palace says Marcos won’t interfere with Congress on the budget
WHAT HAPPENED
Palace press officer Claire Castro said President Marcos will not interfere with Congress’s work on the P7.2 trillion 2027 budget, but will reject amendments without proper documentation and a real project behind them, The Philippine Star reported on Nov. 4. “When the President needs to veto, he vetoes,” she said. The People’s Budget Coalition told the Senate that the House version has more than P1 trillion in “red flag” allocations, including about 7,000 public works projects worth P190 billion with no published lists. Senators open floor debate on Nov. 9, and Senate President Sherwin Gatchalian has vowed to remove close to 300 noncompliant DPWH projects.
UNCERTAIN
How much is cut. DPWH said it will drop House-added projects without complete documents, and civil society groups will be invited to observe the bicameral talks.
WHY IT MATTERS
How this money is spent decides which roads, rail and public works get built next year, and how much is wasted.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: delays to ready projects if the budget fight drags on. Opportunity: more open, documented project lists make it easier for legitimate contractors to plan.
NEXT MOVE
If you supply government projects, follow the Senate debate from Nov. 9 and keep your documents and accreditations up to date.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● US midterm results are coming in
WHAT HAPPENED
Votes are being counted in the US midterm elections, with control of the House and Senate at stake, ABC News reported in its live coverage. As of ABC’s update at 7:16 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, or 8:16 a.m. Wednesday in Manila, ABC had projected Democratic Sen. Mark Warner to win re-election in Virginia, and its coverage also reported Democrat Roy Cooper projected to win North Carolina’s Senate race, a seat now held by Republicans. Neither ABC nor the AP had projected control of either chamber at that point.
UNCERTAIN
Which party controls each chamber. Many states were still counting when we went to press, and close races can take days to call.
WHY IT MATTERS
The result shapes US spending, trade and foreign policy, including on Iran, which affects oil prices, the dollar and the peso.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: swings in the peso and oil today while results are still uncertain.
NEXT MOVE
Hold off on big dollar purchases or fuel contracts until the results are clearer, likely by tomorrow.
● The US strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island as Iran signals openness to talks
WHAT HAPPENED
US forces struck Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz late Monday, the first attack there since June, Al Jazeera reported. A US official told the AP the strikes targeted Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against US assets, and The Wall Street Journal’s source described them as limited, not a return to major operations. On the same day, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the government had been given authority over talks with the US. A foreign ministry spokesperson said a shortened plan, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, could be carried out in “two days.” Oil had fallen more than 7 percent on Monday on hopes of a deal.
UNCERTAIN
Whether talks move forward. Iran’s parliament speaker warned that any response to a US “miscalculation” would be unpredictable, and President Trump told Axios he was “in no rush” to decide on further strikes.
WHY IT MATTERS
Reopening Hormuz would be the biggest relief yet for fuel and power prices here. Renewed fighting would push them back up.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: a real path to lower oil prices if talks succeed. Risk: sharp price swings while both sides test each other.
NEXT MOVE
Keep fuel and transport budgets flexible. Don’t lock in long contracts at today’s prices or bet on a quick drop.
● AI worries spread from Wall Street to Asian chip stocks
WHAT HAPPENED
A sharp drop on Monday gave the Nasdaq its worst three-day run since April 2025, Dow Jones reported via MarketScreener. The selling spread to Asia and Europe on Tuesday, with South Korea’s chip-heavy Kospi closing down 3.6 percent. Apple fell 3.8 percent before the US market opened, as higher memory chip costs squeezed its margins. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to about 4.925 percent, and gold fell more than 1 percent to near $3,900 an ounce.
UNCERTAIN
Whether the slide continues. Chipmakers recovered some ground before Tuesday’s open, and Jefferies said the elections “don’t break the dominant market narratives.”
WHY IT MATTERS
Electronics are the Philippines’ biggest export. If global tech companies slow their AI spending, orders for Philippine chip and electronics plants could cool.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: slower orders for electronics exporters and their suppliers. Opportunity: rising memory chip costs may push up prices of phones and laptops, so trade-in, repair and refurbished sellers could see more demand.
NEXT MOVE
If you plan to buy laptops or phones for your team, buy before prices rise further on higher memory costs.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
One in three Philippine businesses now uses AI, but most only at a basic level
About 32 percent of Philippine businesses now use AI, up from 21 percent a year earlier, according to a study by Strand Partners commissioned by Amazon Web Services and reported by the Philippine News Agency. The survey covered 1,000 business leaders and 1,000 members of the public. Of the businesses using AI, 70 percent use it at a basic level, such as off-the-shelf chatbots and productivity apps. Only 18 percent have built it into several parts of their operations, and 12 percent use advanced tools such as custom systems or AI agents. That gap is the opportunity. Most small businesses have tried AI but don’t know how to take the next step. Agencies and freelancers can offer practical packages: an AI chatbot connected to a business’s Facebook page and product list, automated replies and follow-ups for inquiries, AI-assisted content calendars, or simple dashboards that pull sales data together. Keep it concrete and measurable, such as faster replies or hours saved each week, since that is what owners will pay for.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Policies don’t help unless you act on them
Close to 70 percent of businesses in a global International Labour Organization survey said gender equality and diversity efforts improved their results, up 11.1 points from 2018, the ILO said on Nov. 3. The survey covered 11,957 enterprises in 99 countries. Of the firms that saw higher profits from promoting women into management, 87.4 percent reported gains of at least 5 percent. But there is a gap. While 74.8 percent of enterprises have a gender equality policy, the share actually carrying out such initiatives fell from 37.4 percent in 2018 to 26.5 percent. Women now hold 30 percent of management roles worldwide, and fewer women are reaching junior and middle management, where future leaders come from. “Leaving women’s potential untapped makes little business sense,” said Maria Paz Anzorreguy of the ILO’s employers’ bureau. The lesson for any business owner: a policy on paper does nothing by itself. Look at who in your team is ready for more responsibility, give them a real chance to lead a project or a client, and review promotions with fresh eyes.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
The BSP governor says “we’re still tightening”
“Nasa tightening pa tayo,” BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. said at a European Chamber of Commerce luncheon in Makati on Tuesday, The Daily Chronicle reported. He said inflation doesn’t adjust quickly and could peak in the coming months before easing gradually. The BSP has raised its key rate by 125 basis points this year, including 50 in October. Remolona said the BSP also weighs how far the economy is running below its potential: “So kung masyadong negative yon, less likely kami mag tighten.” He expects growth to start recovering in the fourth quarter or early 2027 as the government speeds up spending. The BSP projects inflation to average 6.1 percent this year and about 6 percent in 2027, reaching the 3 percent target only in 2028. Our reading: with inflation data due this week, don’t count on lower interest rates any time soon. If you are planning a loan, assume today’s high rates for at least the first half of 2027, and keep your cash reserves strong.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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