Market & Mainstreet
The Peso Edges Toward 64
The Daily Scan – October 27, 2026 (Tue)
The peso fell for a fifth straight day to a record 63.95, and the PSEi dropped to its lowest since June. Diesel goes up another P1.20 a liter today, and exporters are telling businesses to prepare for a strong El Niño that could raise power prices into early 2027. Abroad, a new report names Southeast Asia’s worst criminal hubs, Meta is raising $95 billion to fund AI, and every economist in a Reuters poll expects a US rate hike in December. The opening for business owners: power regulators want all households and small businesses to be able to shop for electricity by 2031.
| Peso close | BSP rate | PSEi | Diesel today |
| ₱63.95/$ | 5.50% |
5,641.18 |
+₱1.20/L |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Peso nears 64 after a fifth straight record low
WHAT HAPPENED
The peso closed Monday at 63.95 per dollar, 33.5 centavos weaker than Friday’s record of 63.615 and its fifth straight record low, The Manila Times reported on Oct. 27. It has lost P5.16, or 8.78 percent, since the end of 2025. Analysts blamed oil near six-month highs, fears of stagflation, expectations of a US rate hike and renewed US threats against Iran. The PSEi fell 1.53 percent to 5,641.18, its lowest since June.
UNCERTAIN
How much further it falls. Chinabank’s Domini Velasquez said the peso could break 64 soon and that higher rates alone may not be enough to support it. RCBC’s Michael Ricafort said the BSP is open to an off-cycle hike and may step in to smooth sharp swings.
WHY IT MATTERS
Regina Capital’s Luis Limlingan noted that government infrastructure spending has contracted for 14 straight months. Weak public spending plus a falling peso means slower demand and higher costs at the same time.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: higher prices for anything imported, and an off-cycle rate hike. Opportunity: more pesos for exporters and freelancers paid in dollars.
NEXT MOVE
Check every supplier quote that lists prices in dollars and lock in orders you know you need for the holidays this week.
● Philippines pushes cheaper digital payments and wider credit at APEC
WHAT HAPPENED
At the APEC Finance Ministers’ Meeting in Hong Kong on Oct. 20 and 21, Finance Undersecretary Joven Balbosa pushed for more private investment in projects through blended finance, guarantees and other risk-sharing tools, THEPHILBIZNEWS reported on Oct. 27. He also called for more reliable digital connectivity across the region and cited Philippine efforts to lower the cost of digital transactions and widen access to responsible formal credit.
UNCERTAIN
What comes of it. The ministers’ joint statement gave no financing amounts, and the outcomes now go to the APEC leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen on Nov. 18 and 19.
WHY IT MATTERS
Lower digital payment fees and easier formal credit would directly help small businesses that still pay high charges on e-wallet and card transactions or borrow from informal lenders.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: cheaper digital payments over time. Risk: regional pledges often move slowly.
NEXT MOVE
Total up what you paid in payment fees last month. If you see cheaper digital payment options appear, you’ll know right away whether switching is worth it.
● Diesel up P1.20 a liter today; gasoline down slightly
WHAT HAPPENED
Diesel prices rise by P1.20 a liter and kerosene by P0.50 starting 6 a.m. today, while gasoline drops by P0.30, The Philippine Star reported on Oct. 27. The new prices run through Nov. 2. The Department of Energy cited supply pressures linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The increases were smaller than the industry had forecast.
UNCERTAIN
Next week’s prices. Oil swung sharply last week on attacks in the Middle East and talk of new US strikes on Iran, so diesel could move again soon.
WHY IT MATTERS
Diesel powers trucks, jeepneys, tricycles, fishing boats and generators. Each increase goes straight into delivery, transport and farm costs, and from there into food prices.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: higher delivery and transport costs right before the holiday rush.
NEXT MOVE
Plan delivery routes to cut trips this week, and update any delivery fees that no longer cover your fuel costs.
● Exporters tell businesses to prepare for a long, strong El Niño
WHAT HAPPENED
Exporters’ group Philexport urged businesses to build climate risks into their operating plans, Context.ph reported on Oct. 27. It cited a Philippine Disaster Resilience Foundation outlook giving more than an 83 percent chance that strong to very strong El Niño conditions last through January to March 2027. In the foundation’s scenarios, electricity demand rises 3 to 8 percent, hydropower output falls 10 to 30 percent and average spot market power prices rise 22.7 percent.
UNCERTAIN
How bad it gets locally. Below-normal rainfall is expected across much of the country from November to April, though storms may bring some rain. Farm damage has already reached about P6.87 billion, affecting 223,214 farmers.
WHY IT MATTERS
Higher power and water costs, possible outages and pricier farm goods could all arrive in the first quarter of 2027.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: higher electricity bills, water shortages and supply delays. Opportunity: demand for water storage, solar, backup power and energy-saving services.
NEXT MOVE
Follow Philexport’s checklist: list which operations need water, check your storage and backup generator, line up alternative suppliers and budget for higher power and fuel costs.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● US stocks rise as Anthropic files to go public
WHAT HAPPENED
The Nasdaq rose 0.82 percent and the S&P 500 gained 0.70 percent on Monday after AI company Anthropic filed to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, TheStreet reported. The filing did not include a valuation or offering size. Oil eased early on hopes of calmer US-Iran relations, with Brent down 1.34 percent to $115.20, even as CNN reported US forces could launch major strikes within 96 hours of an order.
UNCERTAIN
Whether the calm lasts. The US Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and Google, Microsoft and Amazon report results this week.
WHY IT MATTERS
When foreign investors feel better about global stocks, some money can flow back into markets like the PSE, which has been falling. The Iran report is the reverse risk for oil and the peso.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: a US strike on Iran would likely push oil and fuel prices up again.
NEXT MOVE
Keep a two-week buffer of fuel and key supplies if your business can’t absorb a sudden price jump.
● Report names Southeast Asia’s four biggest criminal hubs
WHAT HAPPENED
A report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, commissioned by the EU-ASEAN Business Council, flagged four criminal hubs where trafficking, cybercrime, counterfeiting and money laundering overlap: the Golden Triangle, Myawaddy in Myanmar, Sihanoukville in Cambodia and the area around Poipet on the Thailand-Cambodia border, the council said on Oct. 26. Many sit on or near special economic zones with loose rules. Council director Chris Humphrey said illicit trade lets cheaper counterfeit and smuggled goods undercut legitimate businesses.
UNCERTAIN
The council’s summary does not mention the Philippines. The report also named Timor-Leste and parts of Myanmar as emerging hubs.
WHY IT MATTERS
Scam operations from these hubs target consumers and businesses across the region, and counterfeit goods compete directly with honest sellers on price.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: fake supplier invoices, payment-change scams and counterfeit competition on online marketplaces.
NEXT MOVE
Tell your staff to confirm any change in a supplier’s bank details by phone, using a number you already have, before sending payment.
● Meta raises up to $95 billion in new stock to fund AI
WHAT HAPPENED
Meta plans to raise $95 billion by selling new shares, starting Monday with $35 billion in underwritten offerings and another $60 billion through gradual sales, The Irish Times reported, carrying a Financial Times story. Chipmakers Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom will be cornerstone investors. Meta expects to spend up to $145 billion this year, mostly on AI, and told investors it will need “hundreds of billions of dollars” over several years.
UNCERTAIN
Whether the spending pays off. Meta says AI is already improving ad performance and engagement, but its shares fell 7 percent after last week’s results.
WHY IT MATTERS
Facebook and Instagram ads are central to marketing for many Philippine businesses. Meta is betting that more of that advertising will be run by AI, so expect more automated ad tools and pressure to use them.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: automated tools may lower the work needed to run campaigns. Risk: less control over where your ad budget goes.
NEXT MOVE
Run a small test of Meta’s automated campaign settings against your usual manual setup, and keep whichever gets the lower cost per result.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Small businesses may soon be able to shop for electricity
The Energy Regulatory Commission wants to lower the threshold for choosing your own power supplier from 100 kilowatts to 50 kilowatts next year and 30 kilowatts by 2030, with every household able to choose by 2031, the Inquirer reports. About 12,000 mid-sized commercial and industrial users can already choose today. As of the end of August, 2,692 of them and 311 aggregated groups had switched. Under the retail aggregation program, nearby households and businesses can combine their demand to qualify now. ERC chair Francis Saturnino Juan said the cuts will continue “until we reach the household level,” though the ERC says smart meters, a central data system and consumer protections must come first. With El Niño expected to push power prices up, this is worth acting on. Restaurants, small factories, clinics and strip malls that run near 50 kilowatts should check their peak demand on their bills and ask retail electricity suppliers for quotes. Building and village administrators can explore pooling tenants’ demand. Energy consultants and installers have a new service to sell: helping clients compare suppliers and switch.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Don’t build your business on debt, one big customer and one supplier
Gartner chief forecaster John Lovelock predicts that more than 80 percent of independent “neocloud” companies, the firms that borrow to buy AI chips and rent out computing power, will stop operating on their own by 2030, 24/7 Wall St. reports. He said most will likely be bought or merged rather than go bankrupt. The warning signs are familiar to any business owner. CoreWeave’s quarterly interest bill rose to $640 million from $267 million a year earlier. Three of Nebius’s customers each bring in more than 10 percent of its revenue. Both depend on a single chip supplier, Nvidia. And their chips lose value as newer models come out. Some analysts disagree, pointing to large signed contract backlogs. The lesson works at any size: growth paid for with borrowed money becomes dangerous when rates rise, as they just did here. Keep any single client below a fifth of your revenue if you can, line up a second supplier for anything critical, and make sure the assets you borrow against won’t lose value faster than you repay the loan.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
All 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect a US rate hike in December
The US Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow, and 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect it to hold rates at 3.75 to 4 percent, Investing.com reports. But all 100 expect a hike in December. The report says the decision itself is largely priced in, so Chair Kevin Warsh’s tone at his press conference may move markets more. It expects heavily indebted real estate trusts and utilities to suffer most if the Fed sounds tough, while banks hold up best because they earn more when rates are high. Our reading: when every forecaster agrees, the question is no longer whether rates go up but by how much. A December Fed hike would likely add pressure on the peso and on the BSP, which meets again on Dec. 17. If you plan to borrow, refinance or sign a long lease, try to lock in terms before mid-December.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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