Market & Mainstreet
Business Pushes Back on the Budget
The Daily Scan – October 30, 2026 (Fri)
More than 30 business groups are asking Congress to strip over P180 billion in unexplained public works additions from the 2027 budget. The Visayas grid is on red alert again this evening, so rotating brownouts are possible. Moody’s says strong banks and ample reserves are helping the country ride out the shocks. Luzon looks mostly fair for Undas, while parts of the Visayas and Mindanao can expect rain. Abroad, the European Central Bank held rates and Christine Lagarde said she will leave early, the US economy grew faster than expected, oil eased but stayed near $115, and Amazon shares fell after its results. For business owners: watch the budget fight, have backup power ready if you’re in the Visayas, and plan Undas operations around the weather.
| Peso close | Brent | US Q3 GDP | ECB deposit rate |
| ₱63.85/$ | $114.88 |
+3.4% |
2.50% |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Over 30 business groups demand Congress remove P180 billion in budget insertions
WHAT HAPPENED
More than 30 business groups, including the Makati Business Club, the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Employers Confederation of the Philippines and Philexport, asked Congress to remove every insertion in the proposed P7.2 trillion 2027 budget that has no technical basis, The Philippine Star reported on Oct. 30. The House added more than P180 billion for public works projects, which budget watchdogs say covers at least 6,000 projects, many of them lump sums with no published project lists. These were partly funded by cutting about P130 billion from foreign-assisted projects, P9.5 billion from calamity funds, P1.76 billion from the EDSA Busway and P4.9 billion from health programs. The groups want all amendments published in full before the Senate vote and no new items added at the bicameral conference.
UNCERTAIN
How much the Senate removes. Senate President Sherwin Gatchalian said the Senate is studying restoring some foreign-assisted transport projects and EDSA Busway funds, with a committee report expected in the second or third week of November.
WHY IT MATTERS
Money moved from ready, foreign-funded rail and road projects into unlisted local projects means slower delivery of the infrastructure businesses actually need, and more room for waste.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: delays to subway, commuter rail and busway projects that would cut commuting and delivery times. Opportunity: business groups have a strong, united voice right now.
NEXT MOVE
If you belong to a local chamber or industry group, ask whether it has signed the statement, and support the call for every amendment to be published before the Senate votes.
● The Visayas grid goes on red alert again this evening
WHAT HAPPENED
The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines put the Visayas grid on yellow alert from 3 to 5 p.m., red alert from 5 to 7 p.m. and yellow alert again from 7 to 9 p.m. today, GMA News reported on Oct. 30. Available capacity is 2,359 megawatts against a peak demand of 2,536 megawatts, with 782.2 megawatts unavailable. Three large coal units, TVI 1, TVI 2 and KSPC 1, are down, and power from Mindanao is limited because two plants there are on planned maintenance. Eight Visayas plants have been on forced outage since October and 20 are running below capacity. Under a red alert, rotating brownouts are expected.
UNCERTAIN
Which areas lose power and for how long. The advisory did not name provinces or cities, and it isn’t clear when the coal units will return.
WHY IT MATTERS
The red alert hits the early evening peak, just as restaurants, malls and stores get busy on the Friday before the long weekend. Outages can spoil stock and stop card payments.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: lost sales, spoiled goods and damaged equipment from sudden cuts. Opportunity: demand for generators, power banks, solar and battery systems in the Visayas.
NEXT MOVE
If you are in the Visayas, check your generator and fuel before 5 p.m., keep cash on hand in case card terminals go down, and unplug sensitive equipment during the alert.
● Moody’s says strong banks and reserves are keeping the country steady
WHAT HAPPENED
Moody’s Ratings said the Philippines’ sound banking system, large foreign exchange reserves and responsive monetary policy help it withstand shifting economic risks, The Daily Chronicle reported on Oct. 30. Moody’s described Philippine banks as “well capitalized, profitable and competently managed.” It said the BSP kept inflation expectations anchored by easing when inflation was low and tightening this year as energy prices rose. Remittances, outsourcing earnings and foreign investment also support the economy. BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. said the assessment “affirms the Philippines’ resilience amid evolving domestic and global risks.”
UNCERTAIN
This is an analysis, not a rating action. The country’s Baa2 rating with a stable outlook, affirmed in August, did not change, and the report gave no figures on reserves or bank capital.
WHY IT MATTERS
With the peso near record lows and growth slowing, a positive view from a major rating agency helps keep foreign investors calm and borrowing costs in check.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: banks remain healthy enough to keep lending to businesses. Risk: reading this as a sign the pressure is over, when energy prices remain the main threat.
NEXT MOVE
If you need a working capital loan or credit line for next year, apply now while banks are strong and willing to lend.
● Luzon looks mostly fair for Undas, but the Visayas and Mindanao get rain
WHAT HAPPENED
PAGASA expects mostly fair weather over most of Luzon from today to Nov. 2, DZRH reported on Oct. 30. A shear line brings scattered rain and thunderstorms to Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora and Quezon. A low pressure area about 585 kilometers east of Borongan, Eastern Samar, is bringing rain to parts of the Visayas and Mindanao, including Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, Northern Mindanao, Caraga and Palawan, but has a low chance of becoming a tropical depression. Super Typhoon In-fa, far east of Northern Luzon, may enter the country’s area of responsibility around Nov. 2 or 3, where it would be named Samuel, but is expected to turn toward Japan.
UNCERTAIN
In-fa’s path. PAGASA says it is not expected to directly affect the country, but forecasts can change.
WHY IT MATTERS
Undas is one of the busiest weekends for florists, food sellers, transport and stores near cemeteries. Fair weather in Luzon helps; rain in the Visayas and Mindanao changes when and how people visit and buy.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: lost walk-in sales and delivery delays in rainy areas. Opportunity: strong foot traffic in Luzon, and more demand for delivery and rain gear in the south.
NEXT MOVE
In Luzon, stock up for heavy cemetery traffic. In the Visayas and Mindanao, push delivery and pre-orders in your posts today. Check PAGASA again on Sunday for In-fa’s track before Monday’s return trips.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● The ECB holds rates, and Lagarde says she will leave early
WHAT HAPPENED
The European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2.5 percent on Thursday after two hikes this year, Euronews reported. Euro area inflation rose to 3.8 percent in September, nearly double the bank’s 2 percent target, and the ECB warned that energy prices pose risks of higher inflation and weaker growth. The same morning, President Christine Lagarde announced she will step down on Feb. 7, 2027, about nine months before her term ends. No successor has been named.
UNCERTAIN
Who comes next and what they will do. The ECB gave no reason for her timing. Reports linked it to France’s presidential election in April 2027, and Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos and the Netherlands’ Klaas Knot are seen as frontrunners.
WHY IT MATTERS
Europe buys Philippine electronics and outsourcing services. Rising French borrowing costs and a leadership change add uncertainty to European demand next year.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: European clients may hold back on new contracts while the outlook is unclear.
NEXT MOVE
If you serve European clients, lock in 2027 renewals early and offer flexible terms to keep them.
● The US economy grew 3.4 percent last quarter
WHAT HAPPENED
US gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter, up from 2.2 percent in the second, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Oct. 29. Investment, consumer spending and government spending all rose. Spending grew on services like health care and dining. Prices rose more slowly, with the PCE price index up 2.1 percent, down from 5 percent in the second quarter.
UNCERTAIN
Whether it holds. This is the first estimate and will be revised on Nov. 25. A strong economy also gives the Fed more reason to hike in December.
WHY IT MATTERS
The US is the biggest market for Philippine outsourcing and a major one for exports. Strong US spending supports BPO jobs, freelance work and remittances from Filipinos in the US.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: steady demand from US clients. Risk: a Fed hike that weakens the peso further.
NEXT MOVE
If you freelance or run an agency, this is a good time to pitch US clients for 2027 work while their spending is strong.
US Bureau of Economic Analysis →
● Oil eases on US-Iran diplomacy but stays near $115
WHAT HAPPENED
Brent crude settled down 44 cents at $114.88 a barrel on Thursday and US crude fell 78 cents to $102, Euronext reported. Prices were pushed down by hopes for US-Iran talks, including a reported letter from US Vice President JD Vance to a senior Iranian security official and a new Qatari draft deal, which a senior Iranian official dismissed. Reports of Houthi attacks on Saudi oil sites and fears of US strikes after the Nov. 3 midterm elections kept losses small. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said three tankers hit sea mines south of the Strait of Hormuz.
UNCERTAIN
Whether the talks hold. Saudi Arabia had not confirmed the reported attacks on its facilities.
WHY IT MATTERS
Oil near $115 keeps diesel, power and transport costs high here, and any fall depends on diplomacy that could break down quickly.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: a price spike if fighting resumes after Nov. 3. Opportunity: small pump relief if talks progress.
NEXT MOVE
Keep delivery routes tight and avoid long fixed-price fuel commitments until after the US election.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Filipinos want Japan and the US as partners, and investors are arriving
A Pulse Asia survey commissioned by Stratbase, taken Sept. 17 to 23 among 2,400 adults, found 73 percent of Filipinos named the United States as a preferred economic partner and 62 percent named Japan, up 10 points from July, THEPHILBIZNEWS reported on Oct. 29. Canada rose 7 points to 35 percent, while China fell 3 points to 14 percent. The report also noted that investors from the US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and Europe attended the Luzon Economic Corridor investment forum. There is an opening here for local service providers. Foreign companies setting up along the corridor, which links Subic, Clark, Manila and Batangas, need partners who understand the local market: websites and marketing in English and Japanese, recruitment, permits, events and translation. Agencies can build a simple landing page and case studies aimed at Japanese and Korean investors, and business owners in corridor provinces can list their services with local investment promotion offices.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Missing by a little can still cost a lot
Yesterday’s brief said Amazon would be judged against what it promised. That is what happened. Amazon reported revenue of $201.9 billion, about $200 million short of forecasts, and earnings per share of $1.89 against an expected $1.96, Investing.com reported. AWS, its cloud business, is now a $184 billion a year business, and CEO Andy Jassy said the company is “installing an AI accelerator about every 14 seconds.” Even so, the shares fell 6.11 percent after hours, on top of a 4.25 percent drop during the day, as the company said it will spend about $220 billion this year and “meaningfully more” in 2027. A tiny miss, combined with heavy spending, was enough to hurt. The lesson for any business owner: small misses add up when people are already worried about your costs. If you are investing heavily in growth, such as new staff, a new branch or new equipment, be extra careful to deliver what you promised clients on time, and keep explaining what the spending will bring.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
Exporters are telling businesses to prepare for a long El Niño
Philexport issued an advisory urging businesses to prepare for a prolonged El Niño, Context.ph reported on Oct. 27. Citing the Philippine Disaster Resilience Foundation, it put the chance that strong to very strong El Niño conditions continue from January to March 2027 at over 83 percent. In those scenarios, electricity demand could rise 3 to 8 percent, hydropower output could fall 10 to 30 percent, and average spot market power prices could rise 22.7 percent. PAGASA expects below-normal rainfall across much of the country from November to April, and El Niño has already affected 223,214 farmers, with about P6.87 billion in damage and losses. Philexport’s checklist is practical: work out your minimum water needs and storage, line up other water suppliers, inspect backup generators, secure fuel, budget for higher power and fuel costs, keep extra stock, and find other sources for key supplies. Our reading: with the Visayas grid already on red alert before the dry months begin, this is one of the clearest risks of the coming year. Start your business’s plan this month, not in March.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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