Market & Mainstreet
Factories Hit Pause
The Daily Scan – November 03, 2026 (Mon)
Gasoline costs P3.50 a liter more starting today, while diesel and kerosene are cheaper. Factories shrank for a second month in October, and the head of the Federation of Philippine Industries says manufacturers are putting 2027 expansion on hold and planning around a peso at 65. Economists expect October inflation to come in at a three-year high when the figures come out this week. Abroad, Americans vote in the midterm elections today, oil slid as President Trump signaled more time for Iran talks, and tech stocks had their worst day in months on Friday. For business owners: budget for higher gasoline costs this week, plan on prices staying high, and keep your best people even if you delay expansion.
| Gasoline | Brent | PH factory PMI | BSP rate |
| +₱3.50/L |
~$110 |
49.1 |
5.50% |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Gasoline is up P3.50 a liter starting today, while diesel drops
WHAT HAPPENED
Gasoline prices rose P3.50 a liter at 6 a.m. today, while diesel fell P1 and kerosene fell P1.90, based on the Metro Manila benchmark announced by the Department of Energy, The Philippine Star reported on Nov. 3. The new prices hold until Monday, Nov. 9, though they may vary by location and station. The report cited supply pressures from the Middle East conflict, fears of US strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections, and the weak peso, which raises the cost of imported fuel.
UNCERTAIN
Next week’s direction. Oil fell sharply on Monday on hopes for US-Iran talks, after these prices were set, so there could be relief next week if the drop holds.
WHY IT MATTERS
Motorcycle riders, delivery services and businesses with gasoline vehicles pay more this week. Trucks and jeepneys that run on diesel get a small break.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: higher delivery costs for gasoline-powered fleets. Opportunity: some relief for diesel haulers and transport operators.
NEXT MOVE
If your riders use gasoline, group deliveries by area this week to cut trips, and hold off on raising delivery fees until you see next week’s prices.
● Factories shrink for a second month in October
WHAT HAPPENED
The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in October from 49.6 in September, the second month below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction, FX.co reported on Nov. 3. New orders fell more steeply, export orders dropped, and factories cut jobs for a second month. Purchases of inputs fell at the fastest pace in 11 months. Some firms blamed weak demand and unusually hot weather linked to El Niño. On the brighter side, cost increases slowed to their weakest pace in eight months, and business confidence reached its highest level in nearly two years.
UNCERTAIN
Whether the optimism turns into orders. Factories expect better times ahead, but orders and hiring have not picked up yet.
WHY IT MATTERS
When factories buy less and hire less, suppliers, logistics firms and service providers feel it next.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: slower payments and smaller orders from manufacturing clients. Opportunity: slower cost increases make this a good time to negotiate supply prices.
NEXT MOVE
If you sell to manufacturers, check in with your biggest clients about their orders for the next quarter, and tighten payment terms where you can.
● Manufacturers shelve 2027 expansion and plan around a peso at 65
WHAT HAPPENED
Manufacturers are putting expansion plans for 2027 on hold and using an exchange rate of about P65 to the dollar for planning, Federation of Philippine Industries chair Elizabeth Lee said, according to Context.ph on Nov. 3. “But in terms of expansion, that will be on the shelf muna. It doesn’t mean na no, pero on the shelf muna,” she said. Lee called P65 a defensive assumption, not a forecast. She cited higher costs for imported raw materials and equipment, limited room to raise prices without hurting demand, higher logistics costs and port congestion. She said firms are prioritizing keeping their trained workers.
UNCERTAIN
How widespread this is. The report did not cite a survey or say how many companies have shelved plans.
WHY IT MATTERS
When factories delay expansion, fewer new plants, jobs and supplier contracts arrive next year.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: slower growth in industrial areas in 2027. Opportunity: companies still need efficiency, automation and cost-cutting services in the meantime.
NEXT MOVE
Use P65 to the dollar in your own 2027 budget for anything imported or priced in dollars, so you are not caught short if the peso weakens further.
● October inflation is expected to hit a three-year high
WHAT HAPPENED
Nineteen economists polled by the Philippine Daily Inquirer expect October inflation of 7.6 percent, up from 7.2 percent in September and the fastest since February 2023, The Star reported on Nov. 3. The BSP’s own forecast range is 7.1 to 8.1 percent, and ANZ Research sees up to 8.4 percent. Economists pointed to rice and other food, fuel, higher transport fares and the weak peso. ANZ’s Kausani Basak expects inflation to stay above 8 percent through the end of the year.
UNCERTAIN
What the BSP does next. It raised its key rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 percent on Oct. 22. Oxford Economics’ Jun Hao Ng warned the BSP could tighten more aggressively or for longer.
WHY IT MATTERS
Inflation near 8 percent eats into customers’ spending power just as the Christmas season starts, and more rate hikes would raise the cost of loans.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: shoppers trading down to cheaper options. Opportunity: value bundles, smaller pack sizes and installment offers.
NEXT MOVE
Plan your Christmas offers around value now: smaller packs, bundles and “sulit” pricing, rather than premium products alone.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● Americans vote in the midterm elections today
WHAT HAPPENED
The US midterm elections are today, Nov. 3, US time, with polls closing Tuesday evening there, which is Wednesday morning in Manila, according to an XTB guide for investors. Control of the House and Senate is at stake. XTB lists five markets to watch: US Treasury yields, the dollar, US stocks, gold and oil. Close races can take longer to call, and the guide treats a delayed result as a risk in itself.
UNCERTAIN
The results and how long counting takes. Markets have also been watching for possible US action on Iran after the election.
WHY IT MATTERS
The result shapes US spending, borrowing and trade policy, which affects the dollar, the peso and demand for Philippine exports and outsourcing.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: sharp swings in the peso and oil this week if results are close or delayed.
NEXT MOVE
Avoid big dollar purchases or fuel contracts on Wednesday while results are still coming in. Wait a day or two for markets to settle.
● Oil slides as Trump signals more time for Iran diplomacy
WHAT HAPPENED
Brent crude fell more than 3 percent to about $110 a barrel in early trading on Monday, and US crude fell to $100.90, The National reported. President Trump reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he wanted to give diplomacy with Iran more time before further strikes, according to Axios. Trump also said the war would end soon, “one way or the other.” An Iranian delegation held talks with mediators in Qatar on Saturday. Attacks on ships in the Gulf continued.
UNCERTAIN
How far prices fall. The National covered early trading, and other outlets later reported much steeper drops during the day. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said no decision had been made on renewed strikes. UBS expects Brent to stay near $110 at year-end because of record freight costs and tight tanker capacity.
WHY IT MATTERS
If the drop holds, local pump prices could ease next week, after today’s gasoline increase.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: possible fuel relief next week. Risk: a quick reversal if talks fail after the US election.
NEXT MOVE
Don’t stock up on fuel at today’s prices. Buy what you need for the week and watch for next week’s adjustment.
● Tech stocks have their worst day in nearly five months
WHAT HAPPENED
The Nasdaq fell 2.9 percent on Friday, its worst one-day drop in nearly five months, as investors moved out of AI-related stocks and into defensive ones, Yahoo Finance reported, citing Zacks. The S&P 500 fell 1.8 percent and the Dow 1.1 percent. Intel dropped 28.6 percent on a weak forecast, AMD fell 10.9 percent and Nvidia 4.2 percent, while energy stocks rose. For October, the Nasdaq lost 5.3 percent, its worst month since March 2025.
UNCERTAIN
Whether this is a pause or a turn. Investors are weighing heavy AI spending against weaker results from some tech companies, with the US election adding uncertainty this week.
WHY IT MATTERS
Global tech companies are major clients of Philippine outsourcing and electronics exporters. A pullback in AI spending could slow orders and new contracts.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: slower growth in tech-related outsourcing and chip exports. Opportunity: companies under pressure to cut costs often outsource more.
NEXT MOVE
If you run an outsourcing or digital agency, pitch cost savings rather than new projects to tech clients this quarter.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Analog TV ends in Mega Manila on Nov. 22
The National Telecommunications Commission has set Nov. 22 as the end of analog TV broadcasts in Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Pampanga, Bataan and parts of Laguna and Rizal, astig.ph reported. NTC Deputy Commissioner Alvin Blanco said more than 90 percent of homes are already digital-ready, though the figure is still being validated. Households still on analog sets will need a digital set-top box costing about P500 to P700 or a digital-ready TV, and no subsidy has been committed. Context.ph reported on Nov. 2 that GMA Network has asked for a delay, so the date could still move. Either way, there is an opening. Appliance and electronics stores can promote set-top boxes, installation and bundles before the deadline. Local shops and sari-sari stores can stock affordable boxes. Agencies can help small businesses that rely on TV ads reach the remaining analog households through radio, Facebook and community channels during the switch. A simple “Is your TV ready for Nov. 22?” campaign, posted now, can bring in customers over the next three weeks.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Beating this quarter isn’t enough if next quarter looks weak
Intel beat expectations for the third quarter, with earnings of 52 cents a share against a 40-cent target and revenue up 21 percent to $16.51 billion, SiliconANGLE reported. Its data center and AI revenue jumped 78 percent. But it guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15 billion to $16 billion, well below the $17.1 billion analysts expected, citing a weak PC market, higher memory costs and an explosion at a chip plant in Israel. The shares fell more than 30 percent on Friday. CFO David Zinsner said the company will not spend capital without “clear evidence of customer demand.” The lesson for any business owner is in that last line. Like the manufacturers in today’s Philippine stories, Intel is choosing to wait for proof of demand before it spends. Before you sign a lease for a second branch or buy new equipment, look for evidence: signed orders, repeat customers or a waiting list. And when you report to partners or investors, be honest about the next few months, not just the last one.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
COA flags P459 billion in DPWH contracts to firms whose capacity was overstated
The Commission on Audit reviewed 27,094 sampled infrastructure contracts and found 11,391, worth about P459.26 billion, where bidders did not fully disclose their ongoing and awarded contracts, GMA News reported on Nov. 2. That overstated how much work they could take on. COA said 198 contractors should not have received additional contracts because earlier ones were unfinished. In one case, a contractor won four contracts worth P530 million despite an eligibility of about P81 million. DPWH said it checked contractor capacity during post-qualification, and Secretary Giovanni Lopez said the findings have been sent to implementing offices. The P459 billion is the total value of the contracts, not money lost. Our reading: together with business groups’ push to strip unexplained insertions from the 2027 budget, scrutiny of public works spending is rising. Expect stricter checks on contractor capacity and documents. If you bid for government work, keep your disclosure statements complete and up to date. Firms with clean records may find it easier to win contracts as rules tighten.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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