Market & Mainstreet
Growth Slows to 2.1% as Gasoline Drops ₱16.80 and Households Cut Back on Internet
The Daily Scan – November 10, 2026 (Tue)
The economy grew just 2.1 percent in the third quarter, its weakest pace in years, as household spending weakened and investment fell. Some relief arrives today: gasoline is P16.80 a liter cheaper, with diesel down P4.10. Exports, though, hit a record $9.87 billion in September. Converge says low-income households are cutting back on internet as prices bite. Abroad, Wall Street jumped as oil dropped below $93 on hopes for a US-Iran deal, China extended its trade truce with the US to Jan. 10, and US inflation figures come out tonight, Manila time. For business owners: pass on fuel savings where you can, offer cheaper options for budget-conscious customers, and watch the Trump visit next week for investment news.
| Q3 GDP | Gasoline | Sept. exports | Brent |
| 2.1% |
-₱16.80/L |
$9.87B |
$92.57 |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Growth slows to 2.1 percent as spending weakens and investment falls
WHAT HAPPENED
The economy grew 2.1 percent in the third quarter, down from 2.4 percent in the second and 4 percent a year earlier, SunStar reported, citing a Philippine News Agency report on Monday’s PSA release. Household spending grew 2.4 percent, down from 4 percent a year ago, and investment fell 0.2 percent. Government spending rose 6.8 percent and exports 8.6 percent, with electronics exports up 19.4 percent. Agriculture shrank 4.8 percent after storms and heavy monsoon rains, industry was flat and services grew 3.7 percent. Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan pointed to high food and energy prices and tighter financing, and said recovery will need stronger investment, easing prices and renewed business confidence.
UNCERTAIN
Whether the year’s 3.5 to 4.5 percent target is still reachable. It would take a much stronger fourth quarter, and inflation is still near 8 percent.
WHY IT MATTERS
Households, which drive most of the economy, are spending noticeably less. Businesses that sell to consumers will feel it most, and stocks fell 1.46 percent on Monday after the release, The Philippine Star reported.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: weaker Christmas sales than usual. Opportunity: exports and government projects are still growing.
NEXT MOVE
Plan Christmas stock and staffing conservatively, and focus marketing on value, essentials and gift bundles at lower price points.
● Gasoline drops P16.80 a liter starting today
WHAT HAPPENED
Gasoline prices fall P16.80 a liter today, diesel P4.10 and kerosene P3.70, with the new prices running through Nov. 16, the Philippine News Agency reported. The Department of Energy linked the drop to “growing expectations of a possible diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict,” citing Qatar’s mediation and recent US political developments. Undersecretary Alessandro Sales said supply is adequate, with about 52 days of gasoline and 54 days of diesel in stock. Energy Secretary Sharon Garin urged people to save electricity ahead of a long dry spell.
UNCERTAIN
Whether the drop lasts. It depends on US-Iran talks, which could still break down.
WHY IT MATTERS
This more than reverses last week’s P3.50 gasoline increase and gives delivery riders, transport operators and motorists real relief.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: lower delivery and travel costs this week. Risk: diesel fell much less than gasoline, so trucking costs ease only a little.
NEXT MOVE
Schedule fuel-heavy deliveries and trips this week, and consider passing some of the savings to customers through lower delivery fees.
● September exports hit a record $9.87 billion
WHAT HAPPENED
Merchandise exports reached a record $9.87 billion in September, up 35.6 percent from a year earlier, the Daily Guardian reported on Nov. 10, citing PSA data. Exports from January to September totaled $73.95 billion, up 17.2 percent. The report came as the DTI wrapped up the Philippine Exporters’ Trade Exposition and Forum at SMX Manila, where more than 300 Filipino exhibitors showed food, personal care, garments, home goods and more, with special pavilions for coconut and halal products. “Our record export performance shows what Philippine industries can deliver,” Trade Secretary Cristina Roque said.
UNCERTAIN
How much comes from beyond electronics. Electronics have driven most of this year’s growth, so a slowdown in the AI boom would hit exports quickly.
WHY IT MATTERS
Exports are one of the few strong parts of the economy right now, bringing in dollars and supporting jobs.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: DTI support for small exporters, including business matching, trade missions and help with standards and financing.
NEXT MOVE
If you make food, personal care or home products, contact DTI’s export programs about trade missions and buyer matching for 2027.
● Low-income households are cutting back on internet
WHAT HAPPENED
Converge ICT Solutions says the weak peso and high inflation are hitting its low-income subscribers, The Philippine Star reported on Nov. 10. Demand for its Surf2Sawa service, which offers 30-day broadband for P700, rises and falls with economic conditions, according to COO Benjamin Azada and CEO Dennis Anthony Uy. Converge is developing a P500-a-month fiber product to keep those customers. The report noted that broadband in the Philippines costs about 4 percent of income per person, twice the 2 percent benchmark used by the International Telecommunication Union.
UNCERTAIN
How widespread this is. The report covers one provider and gives no subscriber numbers for the cutbacks.
WHY IT MATTERS
When households cut back on data and broadband, they spend less time online, which affects anyone who sells or advertises through social media and e-commerce.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: lower reach for online ads aimed at budget-conscious customers. Opportunity: lighter, data-friendly content and offline channels.
NEXT MOVE
Make sure your website and posts load fast on slow connections, use short videos and images, and don’t rely only on online ads to reach lower-income customers.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● Wall Street jumps as oil drops, with US inflation figures due tonight
WHAT HAPPENED
The Dow rose 2.15 percent on Monday, the S&P 500 2.34 percent and the Nasdaq 2.74 percent, with all 11 S&P sectors finishing higher, Investrade reported. Falling oil drove the rally after President Trump downplayed renewed strikes on Iran, and airline stocks surged. Nvidia fell after its board opened an investigation into whether CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. US inflation figures come out Tuesday, 8:30 a.m. New York time, or 9:30 p.m. in Manila. Economists expect prices to rise 0.3 percent for the month, after 0.6 percent in September.
UNCERTAIN
What tonight’s numbers show. A hotter reading could revive talk of Fed hikes, and Congress faces a Dec. 11 funding deadline that could lead to a US government shutdown.
WHY IT MATTERS
Lower oil and a calmer Wall Street usually help the peso and Philippine stocks.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: a high inflation reading tonight could push the dollar back up.
NEXT MOVE
If you need to buy dollars this week, do it before tonight’s release rather than after.
● China extends its trade truce with the US to Jan. 10
WHAT HAPPENED
China extended its rare earth export waivers to Jan. 10, 2027, and suspended an extra 24 percent tariff on US goods for two more months, astig.ph reported on Nov. 9. It also kept on hold special port fees on US-linked ships and restrictions on some US companies. A 10 percent blanket tariff on US goods remains. The pause was due to expire on Nov. 10. A proposed $60 billion package of reciprocal tariff cuts has not been finalized, and the extension was described as “a pause, not a settlement.”
UNCERTAIN
Whether a longer deal follows. President Trump is expected to meet President Xi at APEC in Shenzhen after his Manila visit.
WHY IT MATTERS
The Philippines’ electronics industry relies on supply chains that run through both China and the US. Rare earths are used in many electronic components.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: two more months of stable trade rules. Risk: renewed tariffs if talks fail after Jan. 10.
NEXT MOVE
If you import from China or export electronics parts, place key orders before January while the truce holds.
● Oil falls toward $93 on hopes for a US-Iran deal
WHAT HAPPENED
Brent crude fell 4.3 percent to about $93.70 a barrel on Monday and US crude fell 3.5 percent to about $87.76, after Brent briefly dropped more than 5 percent, TradingKey reported. Signs of possible US-Iran negotiations and unconfirmed reports of Iranian concessions on the Strait of Hormuz eased supply fears. Trump called the chance of a large US strike “extremely low,” but tied it to Iran signing a “very tough deal.” TradingKey’s technical analysis says Brent could fall toward $88 if it fails to hold above about $93.
UNCERTAIN
Whether a deal happens. The concession reports are unconfirmed, and diplomatic signals have not yet become an agreement.
WHY IT MATTERS
If oil stays in the low $90s, pump prices could fall again next week, on top of today’s big rollback.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: more fuel relief ahead. Risk: a sharp rebound if talks collapse.
NEXT MOVE
Keep your fuel budget flexible. Don’t lock in long-term fuel contracts until prices settle.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
A US tech hub deal may be signed during Trump’s visit
The Philippines hopes to sign a framework agreement under Pax Silica, a US-led coalition for critical minerals, semiconductors and AI supply chains, when President Trump attends the ASEAN Summit in Manila on Nov. 16 to 18, the Philippine Daily Inquirer reported via Asia News Network on Nov. 5. The government has proposed a 1,620-hectare AI and advanced manufacturing hub in New Clark City, Tarlac. The Bases Conversion and Development Authority estimates $40 billion to $70 billion in investment and 130,000 to 190,000 direct jobs, though its CEO, Joshua Bingcang, says this could take up to 30 years. Apple, Nvidia, TSMC, Qualcomm and Broadcom are on its wishlist. The Palace says it is still waiting for Washington’s response to the draft. Critics warn the hub could keep higher-value work overseas. Even so, there is an early opening. Businesses in Tarlac, Pampanga and Central Luzon can start preparing to serve a growing tech zone with housing, food, transport, construction, recruitment and training. Agencies can build English-language profiles and investor-ready websites for local firms that want to supply foreign companies setting up there.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Don’t let your business depend on one person
Nvidia’s board said Sunday it had opened an investigation, led by independent directors and outside lawyers, into reports that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort, StockTitan reported. The board said Huang supports the review and that it still has confidence in him. Even so, Nvidia shares fell more than 5 percent on Monday, wiping out about $243 billion in market value by early afternoon, while other chip stocks rallied. The lesson for any business owner: when a company is closely tied to one person, any question about that person becomes a risk to the whole business. In a small business, that person is often the owner. If only you know the passwords, the key client contacts, the supplier terms or how to run payroll, your business is at risk whenever you’re sick, traveling or caught up in a problem. Write down your key processes, share access with someone you trust, and train at least one person who can keep things running without you.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
The DOE is “not that confident” the country can avoid brownouts in 2027
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said on Monday she is “not that confident” the country can avoid brownouts next year, Power Philippines reported. The DOE projects one possible red alert in Luzon, four in the Visayas and two in Mindanao in 2027, even after adding 253 megawatts of battery storage, though it said these do not necessarily mean outages. El Niño could cut hydropower output by at least 60 percent and solar by about 20 percent, while demand rises about 100 megawatts for every 1°C increase in temperature. The DOE is pursuing power barges, more battery storage and 200 fast-tracked projects, and is requiring critical facilities to keep at least 72 hours of backup power. Our reading: when the energy secretary warns of brownouts months ahead, take it seriously. Fuel is getting cheaper this week, but power is likely to become the bigger problem next year, especially in the Visayas. Price out a generator, inverter or solar-and-battery setup now, before demand and prices rise in the dry season.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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