Market & Mainstreet
Growth Forecasts Cut as El Niño Farm Losses Near ₱10B and Nvidia Faces a CEO Shake-Up
The Daily Scan – November 12, 2026 (Thu)
Nomura and BMI have cut their Philippine growth forecasts for this year to 3 percent and 2.6 percent. El Niño has already cost farmers nearly P10 billion. The country climbed three places in a global digital and AI ranking, but businesses say talent, costs and infrastructure are holding them back. The peso slipped to 63.12 on weaker foreign investment and hot US inflation. Abroad, AI stocks bounced back on Wednesday before Nvidia dropped 8 percent after hours on reports its board may remove CEO Jensen Huang, China’s Singles Day sales are flat, and oil rose again as Iran dug in on its nuclear program. For business owners: plan for slow growth into 2027, ask clients for deposits, and don’t count on cheap fuel lasting.
| 2026 GDP (Nomura) | Peso close | El Niño farm damage | Brent |
| 3.0% |
₱63.12/$ |
₱9.99B |
$92.76 |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Nomura and BMI cut Philippine growth forecasts
WHAT HAPPENED
Nomura cut its 2026 growth forecast for the Philippines to 3 percent from 3.8 percent, and BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, cut its forecast to 2.6 percent from 3 percent, The Philippine Star reported on Nov. 12. BMI also lowered its 2027 forecast to 4 percent from 4.5 percent and said, “We expect the weak momentum to carry over into 2027.” Nomura called the Philippines “the region’s big underperformer this year,” citing energy prices and concerns over infrastructure governance. Both forecasts are below the government’s 3.5 to 4.5 percent target.
UNCERTAIN
The fourth quarter. Nomura expects growth above 4 percent as government spending picks up, and BMI sees AI-related tech exports providing some relief.
WHY IT MATTERS
Major forecasters now expect weak demand to last well into next year, not just a bad quarter or two.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: slow sales into 2027. Opportunity: tech exports and government projects remain the stronger areas.
NEXT MOVE
Build your 2027 budget on growth of about 3 to 4 percent, and keep fixed costs flexible.
● El Niño farm damage reaches nearly P10 billion
WHAT HAPPENED
Damage and losses to agriculture from El Niño have reached P9.99 billion, affecting 324,327 farmers and 323,319 hectares across 15 regions, The Manila Times reported on Nov. 12, citing the Department of Agriculture. Production losses total 288,424 metric tons, including 108,881 tons of rice and 161,166 tons of corn. High-value crops lost P655.74 million. The DA has set aside P18.64 billion in initial help for affected farmers. PAGASA said on Nov. 4 that “a very strong El Niño is currently present in the tropical Pacific.”
UNCERTAIN
How much worse it gets. The dry season is still ahead, and El Niño is expected to last into early 2027.
WHY IT MATTERS
Lower harvests mean higher prices for rice, corn, vegetables and animal feed, adding to inflation already at 7.8 percent.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: rising food and feed costs for restaurants, food processors and livestock raisers. Opportunity: irrigation, water storage and drought-resistant farming solutions.
NEXT MOVE
If you run a food business, lock in supplier prices for December and January now, and plan menus that can adjust if vegetable prices spike.
● The Philippines climbs in a global digital and AI ranking
WHAT HAPPENED
The Philippines rose three places to 53rd of 70 economies in IMD’s 2026 World Digital and AI Ranking, Context.ph reported on Nov. 12. It ranked 4th globally in high-tech exports and female researchers, and 8th in telecommunications investment, but 65th in internet users and 66th in communications technology. In IMD’s survey, 63.8 percent of Philippine respondents cited a shortage of technical talent for AI, 60.9 percent cited the high cost of AI tools and computing, and 59.4 percent named infrastructure as a constraint, more than twice the global average.
UNCERTAIN
Whether the gain lasts. IMD cautioned against reading too much into year-to-year changes.
WHY IT MATTERS
The barriers businesses report, including skills, cost and connectivity, are the same problems small firms face when trying to use AI.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: affordable AI training, setup and support for small businesses. Risk: firms that wait fall further behind.
NEXT MOVE
Start small: pick one task, such as replying to inquiries or writing product descriptions, and train one staff member to do it with AI tools this month.
● The peso slips to 63.12 as foreign investment falls
WHAT HAPPENED
The peso closed Wednesday at 63.12 per dollar, weaker than Tuesday’s 62.91, and the PSEi fell 0.4 percent to 5,693.20, The Daily Chronicle reported. Philstocks Research said lower foreign direct investment weighed on sentiment: net inflows from January to August fell to $4.8 billion from $5.9 billion a year earlier, mainly because of lower investment through debt instruments. Higher-than-expected US inflation added “further pressure on the local bourse.”
UNCERTAIN
Whether investment picks up. August inflows were the highest in seven months, which could signal a turn.
WHY IT MATTERS
Less foreign investment means fewer new factories, offices and jobs, and less support for the peso.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: the peso drifting weaker again. Opportunity: exporters and dollar earners get more pesos.
NEXT MOVE
Keep budgeting imports at a conservative rate of 64 to 65 pesos to the dollar.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● AI stocks rebound, then Nvidia falls 8 percent after hours
WHAT HAPPENED
AI stocks rallied on Wednesday after CoreWeave reported a “breakout quarter,” with revenue of $3.66 billion and a higher full-year forecast, StockTitan reported. CoreWeave closed up 24.71 percent and Nvidia up 2.87 percent. The S&P 500 tracking fund rose 1.3 percent and the Nasdaq 100 fund 2.31 percent. After the close, Nvidia fell 8.09 percent after The Wall Street Journal reported, as cited by CNBC, that its board is preparing to remove CEO Jensen Huang. Hot US inflation pushed the odds of a December Fed hike to about 90 percent, according to CME FedWatch.
UNCERTAIN
What Nvidia’s board decides. The company did not immediately comment.
WHY IT MATTERS
Nvidia sits at the center of the AI boom that drives Philippine electronics exports. Leadership turmoil adds uncertainty to the whole chip sector.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: renewed swings in tech stocks and electronics orders.
NEXT MOVE
If you serve tech or electronics clients, watch for news from Nvidia this week and keep your client base diversified.
● China’s Singles Day sales are flat as shoppers hold back
WHAT HAPPENED
Cumulative Singles Day sales reached just over 1 trillion yuan, or about $154 billion, as of Oct. 31, broadly flat from last year, CP24 reported, citing retail data platform Syntun. Retailers have stretched the festival over several weeks, and Alibaba built its Qwen AI into Taobao and Tmall to help shoppers find products. Analysts cite “discount fatigue,” since discounts now run all year. Shoppers are cutting back on non-essentials and luxury, but health products are selling well, with online sales of imported fish oil up nearly 43 percent.
UNCERTAIN
Final sales. Some analysts still expect modest growth by the end of the festival.
WHY IT MATTERS
Weak Chinese consumers mean less demand for Philippine exports to China, and Chinese sellers pushing harder into Southeast Asian markets.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: more competition from cheap Chinese goods on local platforms. Opportunity: health and wellness products are holding up even in a slowdown.
NEXT MOVE
Don’t compete on discounts alone. Use 12.12 to highlight quality, health benefits or local value instead.
● Oil rises as Iran says enriched uranium stays home
WHAT HAPPENED
Brent crude rose 1.39 percent to $92.76 a barrel on Wednesday and US crude rose 0.57 percent to $86.53, rebounding after three days of declines, SBS reported. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, said enriched nuclear material “will remain in Iran,” while the US has said the nuclear issue must be resolved first. “Oil prices are finding support as expectations for eased tensions weaken,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.
UNCERTAIN
Whether talks stall. The two sides remain far apart on the nuclear program.
WHY IT MATTERS
Oil’s slide has stalled, so next week’s fuel rollback may be small or there may be none.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: fuel prices rising again if talks break down.
NEXT MOVE
Don’t plan next month’s delivery prices on the assumption that fuel keeps falling.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
ASEAN week is full of free and low-cost business events
With the Philippines hosting ASEAN, this week is packed with business events, according to The Business Manual’s listing for Nov. 9 to 15. Philippine Startup Week 2026 runs until today at the QC M.I.C.E. Center in Quezon City and is free for participants. Regional Livestock and Aquaculture Philippines runs Nov. 11 to 13 at Waterfront Cebu City Hotel, also free. The page also lists an ECCP online workshop on AI tools today and the ASEAN Business and Investment Summit on Nov. 14 and 15. Some details sit behind a subscription. For small business owners and agencies, events like these are one of the cheapest ways to meet clients, partners and investors. Pick one event, bring a short company profile and a clear offer, and follow up with everyone you meet within 48 hours. For agencies, startup and investment events are good places to find growing companies that need websites, branding and marketing.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Get paid before you build
CoreWeave, which rents out AI computing power, said it expects about $9 billion in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months, AP reported via BNN Bloomberg. It also reported a smaller loss than analysts expected and raised its revenue forecast, and some analysts said the company is making progress toward funding itself. Investors had worried about how AI companies would pay for their huge spending, and the stock jumped. The lesson for any business owner: customer money paid upfront is the cheapest financing there is. With bank loans getting more expensive and rate hikes likely, deposits, retainers and prepaid packages matter more than ever. If you run an agency, ask for 50 percent upfront on projects and offer monthly retainers. If you sell products, try preorders or prepaid bundles for Christmas. It reduces your risk, improves your cash flow, and shows you which customers are serious.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
The US energy agency expects oil near $100 for the rest of the year
The US Energy Information Administration now expects Brent to stay near $100 a barrel for the rest of 2026, averaging $97 for the year and $86 in 2027, BigGo Finance reported on its November Short-Term Energy Outlook. The EIA expects prices to ease through 2027, to about $77 by the end of next year, as Middle East supply recovers and inventories rebuild. It warned that the “tight global oil supply picture will persist for some time” and that flows through the Strait of Hormuz could still be disrupted. Our reading: the market has priced in a quick peace, with Brent now in the low $90s, while the EIA’s baseline is more cautious. If talks drag on, prices could climb back toward $100, ending the recent run of fuel rollbacks. Cheaper oil next year is likely, but not guaranteed this year. Keep a fuel buffer in your budgets through the Christmas season.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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