Market & Mainstreet
GDP Day, a Big Fuel Rollback and Dollar Reserves at a Four-Year Low
The Daily Scan – November 09, 2026 (Mon)
Third-quarter growth figures come out today, and economists polled by The Manila Times expect just 2.8 percent. Dollar reserves have fallen to a four-year low of $97.4 billion. The ERC wants a cap on costly backup power prices before that market reopens. Metro Manila gets three days off for the ASEAN Summit, Nov. 16 to 18. Oil firms are set to announce one of the year’s biggest fuel rollbacks today, taking effect tomorrow. Abroad, US hiring beat expectations and tech stocks bounced back on Friday, Trump said new strikes on Iran are “highly unlikely” if a strong deal is signed, and US inflation figures arrive tomorrow. For business owners: plan for the ASEAN break, make the most of cheaper fuel, and learn from how Monde Nissin is losing ground to premium noodles.
| Q3 GDP (poll) | Dollar reserves | Gasoline rollback | US jobs (Oct.) |
| 2.8% |
$97.4B |
up to ₱14/L |
+165K |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Third-quarter growth, due today, is expected at just 2.8 percent
WHAT HAPPENED
Economists polled by The Manila Times expect the economy grew 2.8 percent in the third quarter, The Manila Times reported on Nov. 9, ahead of today’s release by the Philippine Statistics Authority. Forecasts ranged from 2.2 percent from Unionbank’s Ruben Carlo Asuncion to 3.7 percent from RCBC’s Michael Ricafort, with HSBC and PNB at 3.2 percent. The median is down from 4 percent a year earlier and well below the government’s revised 3.5 to 4.5 percent target for the year. Asuncion cited “elevated inflation, weaker household purchasing power, subdued investment and high borrowing costs,” and economist Nicholas Mapa said government spending “remains soft due to ongoing flood control probe.”
UNCERTAIN
The actual figure, which comes out later this morning. Economists expect a small pickup, helped by electronics exports and a low base from last year.
WHY IT MATTERS
Growth below 3 percent with inflation near 8 percent means customers have less to spend and businesses face higher costs at the same time.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: a weak number could hurt business confidence and the peso. Opportunity: a surprise on the upside would lift sentiment going into Christmas.
NEXT MOVE
Check the official figure today, and keep your Christmas inventory and hiring plans modest until demand is clearer.
● Dollar reserves fall to a four-year low of $97.4 billion
WHAT HAPPENED
The country’s gross international reserves fell to $97.4 billion at the end of October, down $2.14 billion from September and 11.7 percent lower than a year ago, the Daily Guardian reported on Nov. 9, citing preliminary BSP data. Reserves are now 14.1 percent below their February peak of $113.26 billion. The BSP pointed to its own foreign exchange operations, lower gold prices and government withdrawals to pay foreign debt. Reserves still cover 310.3 percent of short-term foreign debt, down from 396.7 percent a year ago.
UNCERTAIN
How much of the drop came from defending the peso. The BSP did not break down each factor.
WHY IT MATTERS
Reserves are the BSP’s cushion for defending the peso. A smaller cushion leaves less room to absorb new shocks, such as another jump in oil.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: less support for the peso if pressure returns. Reserves are still well above the IMF’s minimum benchmarks.
NEXT MOVE
Don’t assume the peso will stay near 63. Keep using a conservative rate in your plans for imports and dollar bills.
● The ERC proposes a cap on costly backup power prices
WHAT HAPPENED
The Energy Regulatory Commission is proposing a price cap for the Reserve Market, where the grid operator buys backup power, The Philippine Star reported on Nov. 9. The cap would kick in when a reserve type’s average price over three days goes above a set trigger level, and would apply to each grid separately. An ERC review found that reserves bought at spot prices added about P1.29 per kilowatt-hour to Visayas electricity rates in 2025, compared with P0.02 for reserves bought under long-term contracts. “Reserves are necessary to keep the grid secure, but consumers should not pay excessive prices for them,” ERC chair Francis Saturnino Juan said.
UNCERTAIN
When it takes effect and how much bills fall. The Reserve Market is currently suspended, comments are due Nov. 13 and a public consultation is set for Nov. 27.
WHY IT MATTERS
Backup power costs have been one of the hidden drivers of high bills, especially in the Visayas and Mindanao.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: lower bills, especially for Visayas businesses, once the cap is in place. Risk: delays in the redesign keep prices uncertain.
NEXT MOVE
If you are in the Visayas or Mindanao, ask your business chamber whether it plans to join the ERC consultation on Nov. 27.
● Metro Manila gets three days off for the ASEAN Summit, Nov. 16 to 18
WHAT HAPPENED
Malacañang has declared Nov. 16 to 18 special non-working days in Metro Manila for the 49th ASEAN Summit and related meetings at the PICC and the Cultural Center of the Philippines, GMA News reported on Nov. 9. About 30 vendors in Pasay City have been temporarily barred from selling because of security restrictions, and each received a food pack and P10,000 from DSWD on Sunday. The MMDA has also suspended permits for fun runs, motorcades and similar events until Nov. 20.
UNCERTAIN
Which roads close and when. The report did not give a full list of closures or security zones.
WHY IT MATTERS
Three days off in the capital, with traffic and security restrictions around Pasay, will disrupt deliveries, events and walk-in sales. Malls and restaurants outside the security zones may get more customers.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: lost sales and delivery delays near the venues. Opportunity: a mid-November long weekend for leisure, food and staycation promos.
NEXT MOVE
Move deliveries and events away from Nov. 16 to 18, tell customers your holiday hours, and remember staff who work on a special non-working day get an extra 30 percent of their daily wage.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● US hiring beats expectations, and tech stocks bounce back
WHAT HAPPENED
The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October and unemployment fell to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent, TradingKey reported. Hourly wages rose 0.4 percent, and August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000 jobs. On Friday, the Nasdaq rose 1.09 percent and the S&P 500 0.31 percent, while the Dow slipped 0.46 percent. AI stocks recovered some of Thursday’s losses: AMD rose 11 percent, IREN 20 percent, Micron 5.1 percent and Nvidia 2.8 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.86 percent.
UNCERTAIN
What the Fed does next. Strong hiring led markets to reconsider whether more rate hikes are coming.
WHY IT MATTERS
A strong US job market supports demand for Philippine outsourcing and remittances, but also keeps US rates and the dollar high.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: steady US demand for services. Risk: a stronger dollar putting pressure on the peso.
NEXT MOVE
If you serve US clients, now is a good time to pitch 2027 work, while their hiring and spending are solid.
● Trump says new strikes on Iran are “highly unlikely” if a strong deal is signed
WHAT HAPPENED
President Trump told CNN on Sunday that renewed military action against Iran is “highly unlikely” to be needed if Tehran signs “a very strong agreement,” ABC7 reported, carrying CNN’s story. He added that the US would act “if necessary,” citing three aircraft carriers in the region. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, heading to a G7 foreign ministers meeting in Paris, said, “I wouldn’t say we’re on the verge of a breakthrough,” and called Iran’s demands unacceptable. Iranian hardliners see the midterm results as a sign of a weaker Trump and believe Washington may accept their demands on the nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz.
UNCERTAIN
Whether talks move. Qatar is mediating, but both sides have kept quiet, and attacks on tankers near Hormuz continued last week.
WHY IT MATTERS
Lower odds of new strikes are part of why oil has dropped and why local pump prices are falling this week.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: lower fuel costs if calm holds. Risk: a breakdown in talks could reverse the drop quickly.
NEXT MOVE
Enjoy the fuel relief, but keep a buffer in your December budget in case prices rise again.
● The week ahead: US inflation tomorrow and China trade data
WHAT HAPPENED
US inflation figures come out on Tuesday, with economists expecting a 0.3 percent monthly rise after 0.6 percent the month before, according to The Rio Times’ calendar of the week’s key market events. China releases inflation data on Monday and trade figures on Tuesday. UK growth figures are due Thursday and US producer prices on Friday. US bond markets are expected to close on Wednesday for Veterans Day, though the stock market stays open.
UNCERTAIN
How markets react. A hotter-than-expected US inflation reading would revive talk of Fed rate hikes.
WHY IT MATTERS
US inflation drives Fed decisions, which move the dollar and the peso. China’s trade figures show how strong demand is in the region’s biggest economy.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: a high US inflation number could weaken the peso again.
NEXT MOVE
If you need to buy dollars this week, consider doing it before Tuesday night’s US inflation release.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
A big fuel rollback is coming tomorrow
The Department of Energy’s early estimates point to rollbacks of up to P14 a liter for gasoline, about P5 for diesel and about P5.20 for kerosene this week, DZRH reported. Oil firms are expected to announce final figures today, with new prices typically taking effect on Tuesday, Nov. 10. The estimates were based on four days of trading, after oil fell sharply on hopes the US could move to end the Iran conflict. This would more than reverse last week’s P3.50 gasoline increase. There is an opening here for businesses that move quickly. Delivery services, transport operators and restaurants can run “fuel relief” promos this week, such as lower delivery fees or free delivery thresholds. Agencies can pitch quick campaigns to clients built around passing savings on to customers. Businesses with vehicle fleets should plan fuel-heavy trips and deliveries for this week. Final figures may differ from the estimates, so check the oil firms’ announcements before setting your promo prices.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Winning on volume can still mean losing on value
Monde Nissin, maker of Lucky Me!, gained 90 basis points of volume market share in noodles in the third quarter, and volumes rose 3 percent from the previous quarter, Context.ph reported on Nov. 9. But CFO Jesse Teo admitted that “volume is still down for noodles” for the year. The bigger problem is premium noodles. CEO Henry Soesanto estimated that premium Indonesian noodles now hold nearly 10 percent of the roughly P60 billion market by value, or about P6 billion. “The premium segment is growing ahead of us, so our value shares continue to trail our volume shares progress,” he said. Premium noodles, pancit canton and cup noodles are also not covered by the DTI’s suggested retail prices, giving those products more room on pricing. Monde Nissin is responding with Korean-style Jjampong flavors and other premium launches. The lesson for any business owner: even in hard times, many customers will still pay more for something that feels special. If you only compete on price and volume, rivals with a better story can take the most profitable customers. Look for one premium version of your best-selling product or service, and give it a name, packaging and story that justify the higher price.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
Electronics now make up seven in ten Philippine exports
Merchandise exports hit a record $9.11 billion in August, up 27.8 percent from a year earlier, and electronics accounted for $6.2 billion, or 71.4 percent of the total, SunStar Davao reported in October. Exports from January to August reached a record $64.04 billion, and Trade Undersecretary Ceferino Rodolfo said full-year exports “could surpass” $100 billion for the first time. The US was the biggest market, taking 23.8 percent. “AI needs power electronics, storage, connectivity, semiconductors, and enormous data-center infrastructure,” said SEIPI president Dan Lachica. Our reading: this boom is a big part of what is keeping growth positive, which is why last week’s swings in US AI stocks matter here. When nearly three-quarters of exports depend on one industry and one global trend, any slowdown in AI spending will be felt quickly in electronics plants, their suppliers and the towns around them. If your business serves export zones, keep an eye on orders from electronics clients and look for customers in other industries too.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
You must be logged in to post a comment Login