Market & Mainstreet
Fed Week, With Oil at $116
The Daily Scan – October 26, 2026 (Mon)
The peso ended last week at a record 63.615, but HSBC says the weak currency is finally reviving local manufacturing. The government wants chip design and research, not just assembly, while rail delays have already cost up to P1.76 billion in fees for unused loans. Oil jumped about 6 percent last week, with Brent closing at $116.72. This is a big week abroad: the US Fed, four other central banks and Google, Microsoft and Amazon all report. For business owners, local makers may gain ground on imports, but costs and rates stay high.
| Peso close | BSP rate | PSEi | Brent |
| ₱63.615/$ | 5,728.63 |
6.0% |
$116.72 |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● HSBC: the weak peso is reviving Philippine manufacturing
WHAT HAPPENED
The peso’s string of record lows is giving new life to the country’s long-stagnant manufacturing sector, HSBC senior Asean economist Aris Dacanay told the Inquirer on Oct. 26. He said 2026 is the first year since 2018 with meaningful, sustained manufacturing growth. A weaker peso makes exports cheaper abroad, pushes shoppers from pricier imports toward local goods, and gives OFW families more pesos to spend. He called it “the bitter pill the economy needs.” The peso closed last week at 63.615 per dollar.
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How long the boost lasts. Dacanay warned that imported raw materials also get more expensive and makers may pass that on to shoppers. He said gains are limited without lower trade barriers, a crackdown on smugglers, hoarders and cartels, and cheaper logistics.
WHY IT MATTERS
Local makers can now compete on price with imported goods that used to be cheaper. Businesses that depend on imported inputs face the opposite squeeze.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: local producers can win shelf space from imports. Risk: higher costs for anyone using imported materials.
NEXT MOVE
If you make products locally, pitch retailers and distributors this quarter as a cheaper alternative to the imports they now pay more for.
● Rail delays cost up to P1.76 billion in fees on unused loans
WHAT HAPPENED
Lenders have billed the government up to P1.76 billion in commitment fees as of July on loans for rail projects that can’t be used yet because of right-of-way delays, The Philippine Star reported on Oct. 26. The projects include MRT-4, the North-South Commuter Railway and the Metro Manila Subway. Acting Transportation Secretary Giovanni Lopez ordered officials to finish site acquisition and other preparation before applying for new loans.
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When the lines will actually open. The North-South Commuter Railway and the subway are now expected only in the early 2030s, and the ADB’s data push MRT-4’s loan approval to March 2030. MRT-4 would cut the Taytay-to-Ortigas trip from three hours to about 30 minutes.
WHY IT MATTERS
Commutes and deliveries in these corridors will stay slow for years. That affects where staff can live, how far deliveries can go and how much a location near a future station is really worth today.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: paying a premium for property near stations that won’t open for years.
NEXT MOVE
If you are choosing a branch or office site, base the decision on today’s roads and transport, not on rail lines still under construction.
● Government pushes chip design and research, not just assembly
WHAT HAPPENED
Executive Secretary Ralph Recto, who chairs the semiconductor industry’s advisory council, said the Philippines is becoming an “investment choice” for the global tech supply chain, The Manila Times reported on Oct. 26. He pointed to chip design, engineering and research. Chip design alone is expected to add $2 billion to $3 billion a year in exports, and Toshiba plans a multibillion-peso hard drive expansion creating about 3,000 jobs over three years. Exports hit a record $64 billion from January to August, with electronics up 26.2 percent.
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Most of this is plans and targets. The industry’s roadmap aims for $110 billion in yearly exports by 2030, and a wafer factory in Bulacan is still only “prospective.”
WHY IT MATTERS
Design and research jobs pay more than assembly work. More of them would support spending in Batangas, New Clark City and other parts of the Luzon Economic Corridor.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: demand for technical training, staffing, housing and services near tech hubs.
NEXT MOVE
If you run a training, staffing or recruitment business, look at offering electronics engineering and chip design skills programs.
● Analysts tell investors to stay defensive after the rate hike
WHAT HAPPENED
The PSEi fell 0.9 percent to 5,728.63 on Friday, ending two weeks of gains, Context.ph reported on Oct. 26. Broker 2TradeAsia advised investors to “stay defensive,” favoring well-capitalized banks, dollar earners and dividend-paying stocks, and said it would buy more only if the index closes above 5,800. RCBC’s Michael Ricafort put support at 5,600 to 5,700 and warned that the weak peso and high oil prices could push inflation higher.
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Where the market goes this week. The Fed’s decision, Philippine inflation data and third-quarter GDP are all ahead, and 2TradeAsia said another BSP hike in December is possible if inflation stays high.
WHY IT MATTERS
Higher borrowing costs weigh on company profits and on consumer spending, the same pressures your own business faces.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: weaker demand from customers who borrow to buy. Opportunity: businesses that earn in dollars are holding up better.
NEXT MOVE
Act like the analysts advise: keep extra cash on hand and delay any large expansion that depends on new borrowing.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● Oil jumps 6% in a week as Houthis strike Saudi targets
WHAT HAPPENED
Brent crude closed Friday at $116.72 a barrel, its highest close since April 29 and up about 6 percent for the week, Investing.com reported. The Houthis claimed strikes on a Saudi airport and oil facilities on Saturday, and Saudi Arabia said it intercepted more missiles and drones on Sunday. US President Donald Trump said it was “getting to be decision time” on whether to make a deal with Iran or “finish it off.” In Libya, a shut pipeline valve cut output at two oil fields.
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Where prices go from here. Brent eased 1.1 percent to $115.40 in early Monday trading in Asia, but the risk of new strikes on Iran remains.
WHY IT MATTERS
Last week’s jump will likely show up in local pump prices soon, with diesel hitting transport, delivery and farm costs first.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: another round of fuel and freight increases in November.
NEXT MOVE
If you deliver goods, review your delivery fees now and tell customers about any fuel surcharge before the holiday rush.
● The US Fed decides Wednesday; markets now expect a pause
WHAT HAPPENED
The US Federal Reserve announces its decision on Wednesday, Oct. 28, at 2 p.m. New York time, which is 2 a.m. Thursday in Manila, Kiplinger reported. Futures markets put the chance of no change at 88 percent, up from 29 percent a month earlier, with the next hike more likely in December. US third-quarter GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge come out on Thursday.
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A surprise is still possible. BofA Securities economist Aditya Bhave argued an October hike has merit because inflation has worsened since September.
WHY IT MATTERS
A pause could ease pressure on the peso for a while. A surprise hike would likely push it to new lows.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: a sharp peso drop if the Fed surprises with a hike.
NEXT MOVE
If you need dollars for a big order, avoid buying them all right before the announcement early Thursday morning, Manila time.
● Google, Microsoft and Amazon report this week, with AI spending in focus
WHAT HAPPENED
Alphabet and Microsoft report results on Wednesday, Oct. 28, after US markets close, and Amazon on Thursday, Oct. 29, TradingKey reported. Investors will watch how much they spend on AI, how fast their cloud businesses grow, and how ads are doing, including Google Search and YouTube ads, Google’s AI Overviews and AI Mode, and Amazon’s ad business.
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How the results will land, after AI stocks fell sharply last week. The report gave no analyst forecasts.
WHY IT MATTERS
Google’s AI answers at the top of search results can reduce how often people click through to business websites. What Google says about AI Mode and search ads will affect how Philippine businesses get found online.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: less search traffic for sites that rely on simple Google searches. Opportunity: businesses with clear, useful content can still show up in AI answers.
NEXT MOVE
Check your website’s Google search traffic for the past six months. If it’s falling, put more effort into reviews, local listings and content that answers customer questions directly.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Most Philippine businesses using AI are stuck at the basics
About 32 percent of Philippine businesses now use AI, up from 21 percent a year earlier, according to a study by Strand Partners commissioned by Amazon Web Services and reported by the Philippine News Agency. But 70 percent of those users are at a basic level, relying on public chatbots and ready-made apps. Only 18 percent use AI across several parts of their business, and 12 percent at an advanced level. The study urged businesses to decide what success looks like before rolling out AI and to measure it against real business results. That gap is the opening. Most companies have tried AI but haven’t built it into how they sell, serve customers or run operations. Agencies, IT consultants and freelancers who can take a client from “we use ChatGPT sometimes” to one measured workflow, such as faster customer replies or automated reports, have a large and growing market. For business owners, pick one process, set a target, and measure it for 30 days.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Build a presence first, then ask for the big license
Revolut, the British fintech with more than 68 million customers in 40 markets, opened a technology hub in Manila in July 2025, hiring for software, data, customer operations and compliance roles, GMA News reports. Only after that did it start working on a Philippine digital bank license and an e-money license, which the BSP has not yet decided on. By the time it asks regulators for permission, it already has a local team, local knowledge, and a track record of creating jobs here. The lesson for smaller businesses is the same: when entering a new city, market or client segment, start small enough to learn the rules and prove your value before you make the big commitment. A pilot branch, one anchor client or a short trial costs less than a full launch, and it gives you a stronger case when you do ask for more.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
Central banks around the world are still raising rates
Five major central banks decide on rates this week. None is expected to cut, and two are expected to hike, Newsquawk reports. Markets see about an 80 percent chance that the Bank of Canada raises its rate by a quarter point, and New Zealand’s central bank is also expected to hike. The Bank of Japan, which raised rates in September, is expected to hold, with markets pricing about an 80 percent chance of another hike in December. The European Central Bank is not expected to hike, partly because of stress in French government bonds. In a Reuters poll cited in the report, 94 of 100 economists expect the US Fed to hold this week, and Pimco expects a hike in December. Our reading: there is no sign of global rate cuts coming soon, and the BSP just hiked by half a point. Plan your borrowing and pricing as if rates stay high through 2027.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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