Market & Mainstreet
Foreign Investors Pulled Out $4.25B by August as Mynt’s Offer Closes
The Daily Scan – October 12, 2026 (Mon)
Foreign portfolio money is leaving. Foreign investors pulled a net $4.25 billion out of Philippine stocks and bonds in the first eight months, against a $4.58 billion inflow a year ago. Remittances, another source of foreign cash, are still growing but more slowly.
One deal is going the other way. Mynt’s retail offer closes today after strong local and foreign demand, with listing set for Oct 20. Closer to your costs, the ERC approved Meralco’s first rate reset in 15 years, lifting the average distribution rate to P1.48 per kWh.
Abroad, attacks on Saudi airports and tankers keep oil near $103, Trump announced an energy ceasefire that no one has confirmed, and investors are asking whether AI profits can cover higher borrowing costs. For owners: check your power bill, keep a cash buffer, and do not count on cheap money.
| Meralco distribution rate | July Remittances | Brent, Asian Trade |
| P1.48, per kWh, from P1.35 | +2.0%, to $3.6B | $103.50, recent high $109.97 |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Hot money flips to a $4.25B outflow for the first eight months
WHAT HAPPENED
BSP data shows foreign portfolio investments registered through banks posted a net outflow of $315.41 million in August, against a net inflow of $2.3 billion a year earlier. That brings the eight-month tally to a net outflow of $4.25 billion, against a $4.58 billion net inflow in the same period last year. Gross inflows in August fell 56.2% from a year earlier to $1.83 billion, while gross outflows rose 13.8% to $2.14 billion. BusinessMirror reports that over the eight months $21.689 billion left and $17.436 billion came in, with government securities accounting for most of both flows.
UNCERTAIN
Hot money moves fast and can reverse, and the BSP figures are preliminary. Economist Michael Ricafort ties the swing to Middle East tensions, higher oil prices and inflation worries. That is one analyst’s view, not a finding by the BSP.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: when foreign money leaves local bonds and stocks, the peso can come under pressure and borrowing can get costlier for the government and for banks. That can reach SME loan rates and import costs.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: a weaker peso and tighter credit. Opportunity: exporters and firms that earn in dollars may gain from a weaker peso. Both are our interpretation.
NEXT MOVE
Check how much of your costs and your debt are in dollars, and what a weaker peso would add.
● ERC approves Meralco’s first rate reset in 15 years, but cuts its ask by 36%
WHAT HAPPENED
The ERC approved a total revenue requirement of about P342 billion for Meralco for the four years from July 2026 to June 2030. Meralco had asked for P532 billion, so the commission cut P190 billion, or 36%. The average distribution rate for the first regulatory year rises to P1.48 per kWh from P1.35, about 13 centavos or 9.6% according to the Inquirer, and below the P2.34 Meralco proposed. The ERC said it trimmed capital projects that were not yet justified, disallowed excessive operating costs and bad debt provisions, and used a lower return on capital. The reset covers only the distribution charge, not generation, transmission, taxes or pass-through charges.
UNCERTAIN
The ERC statement did not say when the new rate takes effect, according to the Inquirer. How much your total bill rises will depend on the other charges, which this reset does not cover.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: the increase applies to the distribution part of the bill only, so your total rise depends on your usage and the other charges. Heavy users will notice it first.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: another cost line goes up while inflation is high. Opportunity: the ERC says Meralco will be held to delivering results on reliability and system loss, which could improve service over time. Both are our interpretation, not a forecast from the source.
NEXT MOVE
Find the distribution line on your last Meralco bill and multiply your monthly kWh by 0.13. For example, 5,000 kWh a month adds about P650.
● Mynt’s retail offer closes today as demand spills over to other PH stocks
WHAT HAPPENED
The retail offer for Mynt’s IPO at P6.60 a share closes today, Oct 12. Mynt, the parent of GCash, is scheduled to list on the PSE on Oct 20 under the ticker GCASH. The Inquirer reports that the strong reception is drawing investor attention to other Philippine companies. A Mynt official said the company hopes the debut will revive foreign participation in the local market after years of waning interest. Local demand has also beaten expectations, and BDO Capital, a lead underwriter, said it will seek a bigger allocation for domestic buyers. GStocks PH says orders placed in the regular period are capped at 1,500 shares per customer, with final allocation confirmed two to three business days after the offer closes.
UNCERTAIN
Orders in the regular period follow the standard allocation process, so you may get fewer shares than you ordered. The Oct 20 listing date is scheduled and subject to approvals. No one knows where the stock will trade on day one.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: this is the clearest test of whether foreign buyers return to Philippine stocks. It sits next to the hot money outflow above. Investors are selling local bonds and stocks overall, yet Mynt said its institutional book was oversubscribed multiple times.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: a strong first week does not guarantee lasting interest in other stocks. Opportunity: if foreign interest spreads, other listed firms and future issuers may find buyers more easily. Both are our interpretation.
NEXT MOVE
If you placed an order, wait for the allocation notice and keep only money you can leave alone for a while.
Inquirer → , GStocks PH Help Center →
● BSP expects slower remittance growth as global risks weigh
WHAT HAPPENED
BSP Deputy Governor Zeno Abenoja said remittances should keep growing for the next two to three years, but at a slower pace. Remittances equal about 8% of GDP. BSP data shows overall remittances grew 2.0% to $3.6 billion in July, and personal remittances rose 2.3% to $22.73 billion year to date. The BSP expects 2.7% growth to $36.6 billion for the full year. The main risks are weaker labor demand in host economies and Middle East tensions. In the BSP’s third-quarter survey, 98% of remittance-receiving households said they use the money for food and other household expenses.
UNCERTAIN
These are central bank projections. They depend on jobs abroad and on how the Middle East conflict develops.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: remittances feed everyday spending, so slower growth can mean softer sales for shops, food sellers and service firms, especially in areas with many OFW families.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: tighter household budgets while prices rise. Opportunity: businesses that serve basic needs for OFW families, such as food, health, education and payments, may see steadier demand because those needs come first. Both are our interpretation.
NEXT MOVE
Check what share of your sales comes from OFW households and watch that segment first.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● Houthi strikes on Riyadh’s airport and a tanker keep oil near $103
WHAT HAPPENED
Oil was choppy in Asian trade after renewed attacks in the Gulf. Bloomberg reports that Iran-backed Houthi militants attacked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh again on Sunday, a day after a strike killed 12 people. It also reports that a drone hit a tanker near Sohar off Oman, outside the Strait of Hormuz, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations. Reuters says Brent slipped 1.1% to $103.50 a barrel in early Asian trade, below its recent high of $109.97, while US crude lost 1.2% to $90.73.
UNCERTAIN
Reuters headlines report that Trump is weighing renewed strikes over the Riyadh attacks and that Iran rejected the US stance on Hormuz. How far the conflict spreads is not settled, and prices have been swinging.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: oil near $100 keeps fuel and freight costs high for Philippine importers, transport firms and anyone who ships goods.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: a wider conflict lifts oil and shipping insurance costs. Opportunity: firms that can pass fuel costs into delivery fees are better placed than those on fixed prices. Both are our reading.
NEXT MOVE
Add a fuel adjustment line to your delivery or service quotes so rising oil does not eat your margin.
● Trump announces a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire that no one has confirmed
WHAT HAPPENED
President Trump said in a social media post on Sunday that an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is effective immediately, and that both sides agreed to stop attacks on energy facilities. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said it was news to him but that Ukraine would agree if Russia does. The Kremlin did not comment, CBC reports. The announcement followed a deal in which Trump agreed to let Russian diesel reach world markets.
UNCERTAIN
No terms, start time or checks have been published. NBC News notes that Trump made a similar announcement a month ago and attacks on energy sites continued. Reuters adds that senators from both parties have criticized the diesel plan as potentially illegal.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: diesel moves most Philippine trucks, buses and boats. A real halt to refinery strikes could ease diesel supply worries, but a deal that exists only as a post does not change today’s prices.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: if the truce collapses, diesel and oil could rise again. Opportunity: if it holds, easier diesel supply would help transport, food and logistics SMEs. Both are our interpretation.
NEXT MOVE
Do not lock in long fixed-price transport contracts on the strength of this announcement alone.
● Investors ask whether AI profits can cover rising borrowing costs
WHAT HAPPENED
Asian shares opened cautiously as US earnings season loomed, Reuters reports. S&P 500 third-quarter earnings are expected to jump by more than 30%, mostly from tech. AMP economist My Bui said all of the index’s gains since mid-September came from tech, while investors demand higher yields to fund heavy AI borrowing. Treasury yields hit 24-year highs last week. Markets give an 18% chance of a Fed hike this month and 85% for December, and some investors are wagering on hikes in the EU, Japan and UK before year end. US consumer prices due this week are expected to show 3.7% a year, with core at 2.5%.
UNCERTAIN
These are market odds and forecasts, not decisions. The US inflation data and big bank earnings this week could change them.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: higher US yields and a dollar index near 17-month highs raise the price of foreign money, which connects to the hot money outflow above.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: if tech earnings disappoint or yields rise further, global markets could fall and capital could leave emerging markets. Opportunity: borrowers who lock in terms early may avoid further rises. Both are our interpretation.
NEXT MOVE
Watch the US inflation print this week. A hot number would add pressure on the peso and on local rates.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
OFW households and a P660 app may create a new kind of investor
Two stories sit side by side. The BSP expects remittances, about 8% of GDP, to keep growing at a slower pace, and 98% of remittance-receiving households use the money for food and other household needs. At the same time, Mynt let GCash users subscribe to its IPO from P660.
A PSE official, Monzon, told The Manila Times that OFW savings could become a steady source of trading activity. He stressed that his calculation shows the scale of the potential, not an estimate of what OFWs would actually invest. If even a small share of OFW families started investing, there would be room for financial education, savings products and local brokers. For a small business, the opportunity may sit in serving those families with payments, savings, insurance or education services.
The caution is that almost all remittances already go to daily needs, and growth is slowing. Most families have little left to invest. Treat this as a slow trend, not a quick sale. This section is our interpretation of two news items, not a forecast.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
When you ask for more, expect every line to be tested
Meralco asked regulators for P532 billion in revenue over four years. It got P342 billion. The ERC said it trimmed capital projects that were not yet justified, disallowed excessive operating costs and bad debt provisions, removed duplicated assets and used a lower return on capital than Meralco proposed.
Think about your own next ask. It might be a price increase, a bank loan or a pitch to an investor. The person on the other side will test each line the same way. They will ask what is excessive, what is not needed yet and what you cannot back up.
So go through your own numbers first. Mark each cost you can prove with an invoice or a contract. Cut or delay the rest. You may still not get everything you ask for, but you keep your credibility, and a clean request is easier to approve. This is our reading of the ERC decision, not a view on whether it was right.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
The supply of foreign money is thinning while its price rises
Hot money flowed out. Foreign investors in Philippine stocks and bonds turned net sellers by $4.25 billion in the first eight months of 2026, against a $4.58 billion net inflow a year earlier, according to BSP data reported by BusinessMirror. Gross inflows in August alone fell 56.2% from a year ago, The Philippine Star reports. Government securities saw both the biggest inflows and the biggest outflows, with $13.7 billion leaving and $11.4 billion coming in.
Economist Michael Ricafort links the swing to Middle East uncertainty, higher oil prices and inflation, which raised borrowing costs and weighed on sentiment. Reuters reports that Treasury yields hit 24-year highs last week and the dollar index is near 17-month highs. Our read: that raises the bar for markets like the Philippines that need to attract foreign money.
Remittances are still growing, but slowly: 2.0% in July, with the BSP expecting 2.7% for the year. Meanwhile one large deal, Mynt, is drawing strong demand, and the Inquirer reports it may bring investors back to other stocks.
How to read this: the flows are reported data. The link to oil, inflation and BSP rates is an economist’s view. Use it to prepare for a weaker peso and tighter credit, not to predict either.
- Oct 20 Mynt listing. Whether GCASH trades well and whether foreign interest spreads to other stocks.
- US inflation data this week. Reuters says markets expect 3.7% a year. A hot number would add to yield and dollar pressure.
- Oct 22 BSP decision. Another hike would add to borrowing costs, and one bank expects three more.
- The next BSP hot money report. Whether September also shows a net outflow.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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