Market & Mainstreet
Peso Hits a Record Low as Reserves Slip and Growth Forecasts Sink
The Daily Scan – October 09, 2026 (Fri)
The peso closed at a record low of 62.90 per dollar. Dollar reserves slid to about $100 billion, the lowest in three years. Bank of America now sees 2026 growth under 3 percent. The SRA is keeping all new-crop sugar at home. Abroad, tech stocks fell on a report about OpenAI revenue, and Brent closed at $104.28 as tanker attacks continued. Levi Strauss gave a useful lesson on what to do with extra cash.
| USD / PHP close | Gross Reserves | Brent Close |
| 62.90, record low | $99.997B, end-September | $104.28, Oct 8, up 4% |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Peso closes at a record low of 62.90 per dollar
WHAT HAPPENED
The peso lost 15 centavos on Thursday and closed at 62.90 per dollar, its weakest close on record. The old low was 62.86 on September 14, based on Bankers Association of the Philippines data reported by the Inquirer. Trading volume rose to $1.4 billion from $1.2 billion. A UnionBank economist linked the slide to a strong dollar, the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance and oil above $100 a barrel.
UNCERTAIN
How far the peso falls from here is not known. The report notes the BSP has stepped in from time to time to slow the decline, but it does not say if it will do more.
WHY IT MATTERS
A weaker peso raises the peso cost of anything priced in dollars. Think imported stock, packaging, fuel, ad spend and software subscriptions.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: Your costs can rise before your selling prices do, so margins thin out.
Opportunity: If you earn in dollars, or sell to families who receive dollar remittances, each dollar now buys more pesos.
NEXT MOVE
List every dollar-linked cost today. Ask suppliers how long their current quotes will hold.
● Dollar reserves slip to a three-year low near $100 billion
WHAT HAPPENED
Preliminary BSP data show gross international reserves at $99.997 billion at the end of September. That is the lowest since September 2023 and 4.62 percent below the end-August level of $104.846 billion. Gold holdings fell 6.73 percent to $17.82 billion. The report frames the drop as not yet a red flag and quotes an official who says the country can still absorb outside shocks.
UNCERTAIN
The report does not say if reserves will keep falling in October.
WHY IT MATTERS
Reserves are the country’s cushion for imports and dollar debt. A thinner cushion, together with a record low peso, can make suppliers and lenders more careful with peso terms.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: Louder currency headlines can push suppliers to add a currency cushion to their quotes.
Opportunity: The official view in the report is that the external position stays solid. A planned approach to your dollar needs may serve you better than a rush.
NEXT MOVE
Map your dollar payments for the next 60 days. Decide which can be paid early or settled in pesos.
● BofA sees 2026 growth under 3 percent as demand stays weak
WHAT HAPPENED
Bank of America forecasts growth of less than 3 percent this year, below the government’s 3.5 to 4.5 percent target. The economy grew 2.6 percent in the first half. BofA expects the BSP to raise its inflation forecasts, now 6.1 percent for 2026 and 5.4 percent for 2027, and says more rate hikes are now more likely. The BSP has raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points three times since April, to 5 percent.
UNCERTAIN
BofA says growth could be better next year if government spending rises. That is a condition, not a promise. The size and timing of any new hike are not set.
WHY IT MATTERS
Borrowing stays costly while customers spend less. That is the hardest mix for small firms that carry loans.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: Weak sales and higher interest costs hit your cash flow at the same time.
Opportunity: BofA points to steady remittances, higher minimum wages and more government spending on education and health. Businesses that serve these areas may see steadier demand.
NEXT MOVE
Run your Q4 cash plan with sales 10 percent lower and loan rates higher. Ask your bank about fixed-rate options before the next BSP decision.
● SRA orders all 2026 to 2027 sugar kept for the local market
WHAT HAPPENED
The Sugar Regulatory Administration issued Sugar Order 1, dated October 7, classifying 100 percent of sugar output for crop year 2026 to 2027 as domestic market sugar. It cited an expected shortfall in cane harvests. The agency projects output will fall 10.3 percent to 1.66 million metric tons from 1.85 million last year. The move followed Sugar Board approval.
UNCERTAIN
The report does not say how prices will react or if imports will fill the gap.
WHY IT MATTERS
Bakeries, drink sellers, food makers and sari-sari stores all depend on steady local sugar. A smaller crop kept at home protects supply for locals but does not add to it.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: A smaller crop can mean tighter supply and firmer prices for buyers.
Opportunity: Buyers who agree on supply and price early may lock in better terms before any tightness shows.
NEXT MOVE
Ask your sugar supplier for price commitments through the first quarter of 2027.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● Tech stocks drop after a report on OpenAI revenue
WHAT HAPPENED
The Nasdaq fell 1.25 percent on Thursday in New York, its worst day since mid-August. The S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent. The drop followed a Financial Times report that OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue is near $50 billion, not the $70 billion reported earlier. A source told CNN the $70 billion figure did not come from OpenAI and likely counted partner sales gross, while OpenAI counts net.
UNCERTAIN
It is not settled if this is only an accounting gap or a sign of slower AI demand. Selling hit chipmakers, cloud providers and other AI suppliers.
WHY IT MATTERS
If you use AI tools in your business, vendors may change prices or plans as investors ask harder questions.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: Signing a long contract with a single AI vendor.
Opportunity: Short, flexible plans let you move to cheaper or better tools.
NEXT MOVE
Keep AI subscriptions on monthly plans until markets settle.
● Oil jumps as tanker attacks near Hormuz escalate
WHAT HAPPENED
Brent gained 4 percent to close at $104.28 a barrel on Thursday. Iran stepped up attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, with nine tankers hit over the past week. Prices eased from their highs after President Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections. Kpler data showed about 9.5 million barrels a day left Hormuz in the week ended Tuesday, about 30 percent below normal levels before the war.
UNCERTAIN
NBC News, citing unnamed sources, reported that renewed US strikes were being considered, so the pause may not hold.
WHY IT MATTERS
The Philippines imports its fuel. High oil adds to the weak peso and to inflation pressure at home.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: Fuel and freight costs climb and show up in your supplier bills.
Opportunity: Businesses with fuel surcharge terms in their contracts can protect their margins.
NEXT MOVE
Check if your delivery and supplier contracts allow fuel adjustments, and review your own surcharge terms.
● Levi Strauss lifts its profit outlook with help from tariff refunds
WHAT HAPPENED
Levi Strauss raised its full-year profit forecast on Wednesday. It received $79 million in tariff refunds in the quarter ended August 30 and plans to redeploy about $60 million this year on promotions and marketing. Shares fell 2 percent in extended trading after sales in the US and Europe came in weaker than expected. Direct-to-consumer comparable sales were flat.
UNCERTAIN
The company is betting on strong holiday demand for premium denim and sweaters. That demand is not yet proven.
WHY IT MATTERS
A one-time refund helped the numbers, and the company is spending part of it to build demand. Products beyond denim gave about half of the quarter’s top-line growth.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: Leaning on one-time money to look healthy.
Opportunity: Adding products around a core hit, as its women’s line did, can open new growth.
NEXT MOVE
If you get a refund, rebate or extra cash this quarter, decide now how much goes to marketing and how much to reserves.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Your supply chain is now a pricing decision
Two stories this morning ask you the same question. The peso closed at a record low, so anything priced in dollars costs more. And the SRA ordered this crop year’s sugar to stay in the country, which keeps supply local but smaller.
Here is our read. Where you can, move some buying to local suppliers, and agree on prices early. A supplier who can offer a fixed peso price for 90 days is giving you something real right now. If you are the supplier, a fixed peso price is a feature you can sell.
None of this fixes the exchange rate. It simply puts one more cost under your control.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Treat extra cash like seed, not like income
Levi’s got $79 million back in tariff refunds. The company says it will put about $60 million into promotions and marketing this year. It did not simply let the refund sit.
You may never see a refund that size. But you may get a supplier rebate, a tax refund, a big order or one very good month. The question is the same. Does that money go into something that builds your next sale, or does it vanish into daily costs?
One more thing to notice. Products beyond denim gave about half of the quarter’s growth. The thing you are known for may not be the thing that grows you next. Ask your customers what else they would buy from you.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
The peso is feeling three pressures at once
A record low close of 62.90 is not just one number. It shows a strong dollar, expensive oil and a thinner reserve cushion all at the same time. Growth forecasts are falling while the BSP keeps rates at 5 percent after three hikes.
What we know
- The peso closed at 62.90 on Thursday, beating the 62.86 low of September 14.
- Reserves were $99.997 billion at the end of September, the lowest since September 2023.
- BofA sees 2026 growth under 3 percent and says more BSP hikes are now more likely.
- Brent closed at $104.28 and Hormuz flows remain about 30 percent below normal.
What we do not know
If the BSP will step in harder, and if oil eases or climbs from here. The reports we read do not settle either question.
Our read
Do not plan around one exchange rate. Plan around a range. Price your quotes with a cushion, shorten how long you hold them, and keep some cash in reserve for a slow quarter.
Watch next
The next BSP policy decision, Brent crude, and whether the peso holds the 63 level.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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