Market & Mainstreet
The Peso Reaches Your Power Bill
The Daily Scan – October 29, 2026 (Thu)
The US Fed held rates overnight, but two officials voted for a hike, so pressure on the peso hasn’t gone away. At home, the energy regulator warns that a peso near 64 will push generation charges, and so power bills, higher. The BIR says nearly 4,000 micro taxpayers have already cleared old tax problems for a flat fee and may open the program to bigger businesses. Jollibee has mapped 1,500 new store areas, most of them outside Metro Manila. Abroad, Alphabet’s spending is now outrunning its cash, the European Central Bank decides tonight, and Amazon reports tomorrow morning, Manila time. For business owners: budget for higher power bills, check whether you qualify for BIR relief, and get your Undas posts scheduled today.
| Peso close | Fed rate | ECB deposit rate | Alphabet Q3 capex |
| ₱64.18/$ | 3.75 to 4% |
2.50% |
$51.4B |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● The BIR may open its tax amnesty for small businesses to bigger firms
WHAT HAPPENED
The Bureau of Internal Revenue is studying whether to expand its one-time tax abatement program beyond micro taxpayers with gross sales under P3 million to businesses with sales from P3 million to under P20 million, The Philippine Star reported on Oct. 29. The program, which runs until Dec. 31, lets eligible taxpayers settle delinquent accounts, assessments and stop-filer cases from up to Dec. 31, 2025 with a flat P5,000 abatement fee for covered amounts of up to P80,000 per taxable year, paid through BIR Form 0605. The BIR has received 17,101 applications and approved 15,050, and 3,929 taxpayers have completed the process, according to Commissioner Charlito Martin Mendoza.
UNCERTAIN
Whether the expansion happens, and on what terms. It is still under study, and the program currently ends on Dec. 31, so there is little time left either way.
WHY IT MATTERS
Many small businesses carry old penalties or missed filings that block loans, permits and bidding for contracts. A flat fee can clear years of problems at once.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: a cheap, clean slate before the new year. Risk: waiting for the expansion and missing the Dec. 31 deadline.
NEXT MOVE
If your gross sales are under P3 million and you have open BIR cases, apply now. If you are above that, ask your accountant to prepare your records so you can move fast if the BIR widens the program.
● The ERC warns the weak peso will push power rates up
WHAT HAPPENED
Energy Regulatory Commission chairman Francis Saturnino Juan said the peso’s slide to 64 per dollar will cause generation charges to spike, The Manila Times reported on Oct. 29. Speaking on Wednesday at Singapore International Energy Week, he said the exchange rate affects how much fuel power plants can buy. Distribution charges won’t be hit right away, since those are set through rate filings. The ERC has already applied the secondary price cap across island groups and temporarily suspended the reserve market, which the report called a main driver of high bills. “We are already doing plenty, but it feels like it is still currently not enough,” Juan said.
UNCERTAIN
How big the increase will be and when it shows up on bills. Juan gave no figures, and the ERC is still looking for other ways to soften it.
WHY IT MATTERS
Generation is the largest part of most power bills. For shops, cold storage, restaurants and small factories, a higher rate cuts straight into thin margins.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: higher power costs in the coming months. Opportunity: demand for energy audits, efficient equipment and rooftop solar.
NEXT MOVE
Take your last three power bills, work out your cost per day, and plan for it to rise. Switch off or schedule equipment that runs when nobody is using it.
● Jollibee maps 1,500 new store areas, mostly outside Metro Manila
WHAT HAPPENED
Jollibee Group has identified more than 1,500 potential trade areas for new stores from 2027 to 2030, and 71 percent of them are outside the capital region, Context.ph reported on Oct. 29. The group already has more than 3,500 stores in the country. Jollibee, Mang Inasal and Chowking make up nearly 90 percent of its local sales. Mang Inasal opened its first drive-thru in Sta. Maria, Bulacan, in December 2025 and had eight by mid-2026, and the company says these average about 40 percent higher daily sales than its other stores.
UNCERTAIN
How many of the 1,500 areas get stores. The company says openings depend on site availability, commercial viability and expected returns.
WHY IT MATTERS
When the country’s biggest restaurant group plans most of its growth in provincial cities, it is a strong sign of where consumer spending is heading.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: suppliers, builders, landlords and service providers in growing provincial towns. Risk: local food businesses face a big new competitor next door.
NEXT MOVE
If you run a food business in a provincial city, sharpen what makes you different now: a signature product, faster delivery, or a format that is easier to reach, as Mang Inasal’s drive-thrus show.
● The peso sets a new intraday record low at 64.18
WHAT HAPPENED
The peso opened Wednesday at 64.08 per dollar and weakened to 64.18 during the morning, a new intraday record low, GMA News reported. It had closed Tuesday at a record 64.17. Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort said a bigger oil import bill and wider budget and trade deficits are weighing on the currency.
UNCERTAIN
Where it goes after the Fed. GMA’s report covered Wednesday morning trading, before the Fed decision early this morning, Manila time.
WHY IT MATTERS
The weak peso feeds into almost everything this morning: power rates, fuel, imported goods and dollar-priced software.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: rising costs for importers and anyone paying in dollars. Opportunity: more pesos for exporters, freelancers paid in dollars and OFW families.
NEXT MOVE
If you bill foreign clients, price in dollars. If you pay for software or ads in dollars, review which subscriptions you actually use and cancel the rest.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● The Fed holds rates, but two officials wanted a hike
WHAT HAPPENED
The US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.75 to 4 percent on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote, Yahoo Finance reported. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, both preferring a quarter-point hike. The Fed upgraded its view of growth from “solid” to “strong” and dropped language tying its next moves to a return to 2 percent inflation. Before the decision, futures markets priced about an 84 percent chance of a hike at the Dec. 8 to 9 meeting.
UNCERTAIN
What Chair Kevin Warsh signaled about December. Yahoo’s live coverage ended before his press conference, so we could not confirm his remarks.
WHY IT MATTERS
A Fed that may still hike keeps the dollar strong and the peso under pressure, which keeps import and fuel costs high here.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: a December hike could push the peso weaker into the holiday season, when many businesses import stock.
NEXT MOVE
Order and pay for imported Christmas stock early, rather than waiting until after the Fed’s December meeting.
● Alphabet is now borrowing to pay for its AI build-out
WHAT HAPPENED
Alphabet’s revenue rose 25 percent to $127.6 billion, slightly below estimates, and Google Cloud more than doubled to $30.7 billion, The Motley Fool reported. But capital spending reached $51.4 billion for the quarter, up from $24 billion a year earlier, leaving free cash flow at negative $9.1 billion. The company raised $28.7 billion in bonds and $12.4 billion from stock sales, kept its 2026 spending plan of $195 billion to $205 billion and said 2027 spending will “increase significantly.” Its shares fell after hours. Microsoft’s revenue rose 19 percent to $92.3 billion with Azure up 48 percent, and its shares rose.
UNCERTAIN
Whether this spending pays off. The Motley Fool’s reading is that investors punished Alphabet for needing outside money, while Microsoft still funds its spending from its own cash.
WHY IT MATTERS
The tools many Philippine businesses depend on, from Google Ads and Workspace to cloud hosting, are now backed by huge borrowed bets. That may mean new AI features, and may also mean price increases.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: new AI tools keep arriving fast. Risk: higher subscription prices as these companies try to earn back their spending.
NEXT MOVE
List the Google and Microsoft tools your business pays for and note their renewal dates, so a price change doesn’t catch you off guard.
● The European Central Bank decides tonight
WHAT HAPPENED
The European Central Bank announces its rate decision today at 14:15 Frankfurt time, or 9:15 p.m. in Manila, according to a September preview by Admiral Markets. The deposit rate is 2.50 percent after hikes in June and September. At the time of that preview, futures implied about a 60 percent chance of a hike to 2.75 percent today. Banks were split, with Goldman Sachs and UBS expecting the next hike in December and MUFG seeing the tightening as done. Euro area inflation was 3.2 percent in August, with energy prices the main driver.
UNCERTAIN
Which way it goes. The odds above are from late September, and a Reuters poll published in early October pointed to a pause today and a hike in December.
WHY IT MATTERS
Europe is a major market for Philippine exports and outsourcing services. A tougher ECB could slow European demand but also support the euro against the dollar.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: softer orders from European clients if borrowing costs rise there again.
NEXT MOVE
If you have European clients, check in on their plans for next year now, before they finalize budgets.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Undas is a three-day weekend, and the window to market it is now
Nov. 1, All Saints’ Day, falls on a Sunday and is a special non-working day, and Monday, Nov. 2, All Souls’ Day, has been added as a special non-working day under Proclamation No. 1006, Gulf News reported when the 2026 holiday list came out. That makes Saturday to Monday a long weekend. Employees who work on a special non-working day get an extra 30 percent of their daily wage, according to the report. The opportunity is short and specific. Florists, candle makers, food tray caterers, bakeries, transport services, resorts and stores near cemeteries all see a spike this weekend, and most customers decide in the last two or three days. Agencies and freelancers can sell a quick Undas package today: one offer, a few posts and stories scheduled through Monday, an updated Google Business Profile with holiday hours, and a ready-made reply for Messenger. Business owners should post holiday hours and order cut-offs before Friday, and plan staffing with the 30 percent premium already counted in.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Set expectations you can beat
Amazon reports its quarterly results tonight, after the US market closes, which is tomorrow morning in Manila. A Pepperstone preview shows how closely the company manages expectations. Amazon guided for revenue of $197 billion to $202 billion, and analysts expect about $202 billion, right at the top of that range. Options markets are pricing a move of about 7.4 percent either way. Investors will also watch whether spending, now planned at about $220 billion for 2026, keeps eating into cash. Compare Alphabet this week: revenue grew 25 percent, but because it came in slightly below estimates and cash went negative, the shares fell. The lesson for any business owner: people judge your results against what you promised, not against what you did. Quote clients a delivery date with room to spare, give a price range you know you can stay within, and keep an eye on the cash you have left after spending, not just on sales.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
Forecasters are calling this El Niño historically strong
“We are in a record, historically strong El Niño,” Amperon chief meteorologist Mark Shipham told S&P Global Commodity Insights, adding that it implies “a tremendous volatility” for power markets. The Oct. 23 report focused on the United States, where forecasters expect a mild winter, possible drought in the Pacific Northwest and changing solar output that could raise midday power prices in California. California’s governor has already declared a state of emergency for vulnerable regions ahead of winter. Our reading: El Niño affects the Philippines differently, but a strong one typically means drier months, lower dam levels and higher demand for cooling in the first half of next year. Add today’s ERC warning about the peso and the signal is clear. Power and water costs are more likely to rise than fall heading into the 2027 dry season. Plan for it now, whether that means a backup water supply, more efficient cooling, or a solar quote for your shop roof.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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