Market & Mainstreet
The Peso Breaks 64
The Daily Scan – October 28, 2026 (Wed)
The peso broke past 64 to the dollar for the first time on Tuesday. Investment approvals are booming anyway, with the BOI at P900 billion for the year so far, most of it for power projects. Flights cost more from Nov. 1 as the airline fuel surcharge rises again, and new CAVITEX tolls start today. Abroad, oil fell on Iran peace talks, New Zealand’s central bank surprised markets by pausing, and the US Fed decides early tomorrow, Manila time. For business owners: book trips before Nov. 1, check your website’s PHP version, and keep building buffers.
| Peso close | BSP rate | BOI approvals YTD | Brent |
| ₱64/$ | 5.50% |
₱900B |
$113.88 |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● The peso breaks past 64 to the dollar for the first time
WHAT HAPPENED
The peso opened Tuesday at 63.95 per dollar, matching Monday’s record low, then weakened to 64 during the morning, GMA News reported. It was the peso’s 32nd record low this year. Analysts blamed oil prices driven up by the Middle East war, which raise demand for dollars, and signs that the US Federal Reserve will stay tough.
UNCERTAIN
Where it settles. GMA’s report covered morning trading only, and its published trading range contained an error. The Fed’s decision lands early Thursday morning, Manila time, and could push the peso either way.
WHY IT MATTERS
At 64, a $1,000 import or software bill now costs about P5,200 more than at the start of the year, when the peso was near 58.8.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: rising costs for imports and dollar-priced services. Opportunity: more pesos for exporters, freelancers and OFW families.
NEXT MOVE
Raise prices on products with imported parts now rather than waiting for the peso to recover, and explain the reason to customers plainly.
● BOI-approved investments jump 53% to P900 billion
WHAT HAPPENED
The Board of Investments approved P900.06 billion in projects from January to September, up 53 percent from a year earlier and 90 percent of its P1 trillion target for the year, The Philippine Star reported on Oct. 28. The 207 projects are expected to create 21,524 jobs. Power projects made up P740.14 billion, or 82 percent. The top regions were the Cordillera (P218.48 billion), Ilocos (P199.75 billion) and Central Luzon (P130.81 billion).
UNCERTAIN
How much gets built, and when. These are approvals, not money spent. Domestic investors account for 90 percent, with foreign approvals at only P90.40 billion, led by Singapore and South Korea.
WHY IT MATTERS
New power plants could ease electricity supply and prices in a few years. In the meantime, construction in northern Luzon needs local contractors, suppliers, housing and food services.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: contracts and services near project sites in the Cordillera, Ilocos and Central Luzon. Risk: delays if financing costs keep rising.
NEXT MOVE
If you operate in northern Luzon, find out which power projects are planned near you and contact their contractors about supply, transport or catering.
● Flights cost more from Nov. 1 as the fuel surcharge rises again
WHAT HAPPENED
The Civil Aeronautics Board raised the airline fuel surcharge to Level 17 for tickets booked from Nov. 1 to 15, The Global Filipino Magazine reported on Oct. 28. Domestic surcharges rise to P559 to P1,635 per passenger, from P525 to P1,535. International surcharges rise to P1,846.10 to P13,726.58. Jet fuel climbed for four straight weeks to $196.70 a barrel in the week ending Oct. 23, according to IATA figures cited in the report.
UNCERTAIN
What happens after Nov. 15. The CAB now sets the surcharge every 15 days because fuel prices are swinging, so it could fall if oil keeps easing.
WHY IT MATTERS
Business travel, staff trips and holiday tour packages all get more expensive, just as Undas and Christmas travel picks up.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: higher travel costs and possibly fewer holiday bookings for tourism businesses.
NEXT MOVE
Book any business flights you need for November and December before Nov. 1, while the lower Level 16 surcharge still applies.
The Global Filipino Magazine →
● New CAVITEX toll rates take effect today
WHAT HAPPENED
The second round of toll increases on the CAVITEX R1 Expressway Extension, the 7-kilometer stretch from Zapote in Las Piñas to Kawit in Cavite, takes effect today, Context.ph reported. New rates are P103 for Class 1, P207 for Class 2 and P310 for Class 3 vehicles. The Toll Regulatory Board approved the increases, which come from petitions filed in 2020 and 2023.
UNCERTAIN
The report did not give the old rates, so the exact size of the increase isn’t clear. Operator groups say the money will fund bridge and pavement repairs and better RFID and plate-reading systems.
WHY IT MATTERS
Trucks and delivery vans moving between Cavite and Metro Manila pay more on every trip, on top of this week’s diesel increase.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: higher delivery costs on the Cavite corridor. Relief: a 60-day toll rebate for accredited public utility vehicles starts today, and a rebate for agricultural transport vehicles runs until Nov. 30.
NEXT MOVE
If you haul farm goods on this route, check whether your vehicles qualify for the agricultural rebate before it ends on Nov. 30.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● Oil falls as Iran talks pick up
WHAT HAPPENED
Brent crude fell 1.7 percent to $113.88 a barrel on Tuesday and US crude fell below $100, Bloomberg reported via Rigzone. Gasoline and diesel futures each dropped about 3 percent. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey went to Tehran for talks, and Iran said it is flexible on a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade within seven days.
UNCERTAIN
Whether the talks hold. Brent is still up about 90 percent this year. Traders are watching the Fed, Israel’s election and the US midterm elections on Nov. 3, after which President Trump has suggested strikes on Iran could resume. Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen said prices need clear signs from all sides that tensions are easing before they fall further.
WHY IT MATTERS
If the drop holds, it could mean some relief at local pumps next week. If talks fail after the US election, prices could jump again.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: possible fuel relief in November. Risk: a sharp spike if fighting resumes.
NEXT MOVE
If you can, wait until after Nov. 3 before signing any long, fixed-price fuel contract.
● New Zealand’s central bank surprises with a pause
WHAT HAPPENED
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its key rate at 2.75 percent on Wednesday in a 4-3 vote, when markets had priced about a 90 percent chance of a hike, investingLive reported. The majority said inflation of 3.7 percent came in below expectations, wage growth is weak and households are still fragile. The three dissenters wanted a hike because core inflation has stayed high.
UNCERTAIN
Whether this is a real turn. All members said tighter policy is still likely, and the bank expects inflation to rise to 4.4 percent this quarter because of fuel. It also flagged rising risks from opaque financing of some AI investments.
WHY IT MATTERS
It shows central banks weighing weak growth against fuel-driven inflation, the same choice the BSP faces. A close vote means a pause can quickly turn back into hikes.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: reading one pause abroad as a sign that rates will soon fall here.
NEXT MOVE
Keep planning on today’s BSP rate of 5.5 percent or higher. Don’t delay locking in fixed-rate loans in the hope of cuts.
● US stocks rise ahead of the Fed and Big Tech earnings
WHAT HAPPENED
The Nasdaq rose 1.18 percent and the S&P 500 0.60 percent on Tuesday as chip and data center stocks recovered, Investrade reported. US consumer confidence jumped to 91.7 in October, well above the 80.4 expected. Futures markets put an 83 percent chance on a Fed hike in December, with this week’s decision expected to be a hold. Google, Microsoft and Amazon report results this week, and Boeing fell after a wider loss and production delays.
UNCERTAIN
What the Fed signals. The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 5 percent and has risen on six of the past eight days.
WHY IT MATTERS
Stronger US consumers support demand for Philippine exports and outsourcing services, but a Fed that stays tough keeps pressure on the peso.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Opportunity: steady US demand for BPO and exports. Risk: another leg down for the peso if the Fed sounds tougher than expected.
NEXT MOVE
Avoid big dollar purchases right before the Fed announcement early Thursday morning, Manila time.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
PHP2Shell attacks hit the millions, and many small sites still need help
Attackers were already trying to exploit the PHP2Shell flaws before they were made public, Cybernews reports. Amazon detected an attempt on one of its decoy servers on Oct. 17 and said the flaw is “broadly exploited in the wild.” Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince said attempts grew from tens of thousands in the first 45 minutes after the announcement to millions. Sites on managed WordPress hosts such as WordPress.com, WordPress VIP and Pressable are already protected, but self-hosted WordPress sites must update PHP itself, because no WordPress update will fix it. Owners are urged to check their logs back to Oct. 17, not just from the day of the announcement. The report confirmed no successful break-ins yet. That leaves a clear opening. Many Philippine small businesses run self-hosted sites on shared hosting that no one checks. Web agencies and freelancers can offer a quick paid package: confirm the PHP version, apply the update, review logs since Oct. 17 and set up ongoing maintenance. Business owners should ask their developer or host for written confirmation this week.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Build your buffers before the crisis arrives
Angat Dam, Metro Manila’s main water source, hit a record low in 2019. Maynilad has spent the years since building buffers, PTV News reported in July. It added 173 million liters a day of treatment capacity, raised reservoir storage by 88 million liters to 780 million, with about 1,020 million liters expected after new reservoirs are finished this year, and cut water lost to leaks and theft to 32 percent. In 2025 alone it recovered 256 million liters a day through leak repairs, pipe replacement and better meters. Now another strong El Niño is arriving, and the company says its system has more cushion than in 2019. The lesson for any business owner: the time to prepare is when things are calm. Set aside a cash reserve, keep a second supplier ready for anything critical, and fix the small leaks in your operations, before the next shock rather than during it.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
The World Bank says the next growth will come from outside Metro Manila
Metro Manila still produces more than 31 percent of the country’s output, a share that has barely changed since 2000, according to a World Bank report covered by the Inquirer. The bank identified 26 clusters of neighboring cities and towns, covering 112 urban local governments across the country, and found that towns within 100 kilometers of a roll-on/roll-off port saw 12 percent more businesses and wage-paying jobs. It pointed to two emerging corridors. One links Naga, Iriga, Legazpi and Sorsogon in Bicol, home to 2.5 million to 3 million people. The other runs along the coast from Cagayan de Oro to Iligan in Northern Mindanao, possibly reaching Ozamiz, with another 2 million to 3 million people. Our reading: if you are planning a second branch, warehouse or sales territory, look at towns along these corridors and near RoRo ports, where costs are lower and new businesses are already gaining ground.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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