Market & Mainstreet
Meralco’s October Rate Rises as the Palace Braces for El Niño Power Strain
The Daily Scan – October 15, 2026 (Thu)
Power bills rose again in October. Meralco raised its rate by P0.3191 per kWh on higher generation and spot market costs, and the new distribution rate and the P0.1733 refund are set to start in November. The Palace has ordered stronger El Niño measures, with backup power planned for the Visayas.
In finance, Philippine startup funding doubled in the first half to $81 million, but only seven startups raised money. Sun Life’s trust unit will exit the trust products business, which affects UITF holders.
Abroad, US inflation rose to 3.7% on a gasoline spike, ASML posted record sales with chip orders eyed through 2030, and J&T Express says it moved 31.4 million parcels a day in Southeast Asia. For owners: track power charges line by line, plan for dry-season disruptions, and know where your money and key vendors sit.
| Meralco rate, October | PH startup funding, H1 | US CPI, September |
| P15.0615 per kWh, +P0.3191 | $81M, +145%, only 7 startups | 3.7%, core 2.6% |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Meralco’s October rate rises P0.3191 per kWh as generation costs climb
WHAT HAPPENED
Meralco raised its overall residential rate by P0.3191 per kWh to P15.0615 from P14.7424, ending two straight monthly cuts. A household using 200 kWh pays about P64 more. The generation charge rose P0.4973 per kWh, with spot market charges up P3.5167 per kWh on thin supply in the Luzon grid, partly offset by charges from power supply agreements falling P0.7567 per kWh. Transmission and ancillary charges fell, which BusinessWorld links to lower reserve market charges. Meralco says the new distribution rate and the P0.1733 per kWh refund will be implemented in November, and two other refunds totaling P1.0139 per kWh for residential customers continue.
UNCERTAIN
These are residential figures. Business rates and refunds differ by customer class, and the ERC’s average refund across all classes is P0.1020 per kWh. Because the higher distribution rate and the refund start together in November, your net effect depends on your class and your usage.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: generation is the biggest part of a bill, so swings in spot market prices can outweigh the regulated changes. A dry season may keep supply tight.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: spot prices stay high if supply stays thin. Opportunity: businesses that shift or cut usage in peak hours may be less exposed to price swings. Both are our interpretation.
NEXT MOVE
From your next bill, track the generation, distribution and refund lines separately so you can see the net effect once the November changes start.
BusinessMirror → , BusinessWorld →
● Philippine startup funding doubles in the first half, but only seven startups raised money
WHAT HAPPENED
Philippine startups raised $81 million in the first half of 2026, up 145% from the previous half-year, according to the H1 2026 Southeast Asian Startup Funding Report by Kickstart Ventures and DealStreetAsia, as reported by Context.ph. Only seven startups raised funding, down from nine and the lowest deal count since 2019. Fintech took $61 million, about 75% of the total. The Philippines captured 1.1% of Southeast Asia’s $7.25 billion in startup funding and 3.2% of the region’s 217 deals.
UNCERTAIN
The report says the jump in dollars reflects a few large deals, not broad investor participation. One half-year is a small sample, and a single big deal can swing the total.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: money is available, but it is concentrated in fintech and a few winners, so most early-stage founders still face a thin field.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: fewer deals means fewer chances for a typical startup to raise. Opportunity: founders in fintech, or those who can show paying customers, stand out. A source quoted in the report says startups stall when they cannot reach the customers who would prove the business. Both are our interpretation.
NEXT MOVE
If you plan to raise, line up evidence of paying customers first, since investors are backing fewer and larger bets.
● Sun Life’s trust unit will exit the trust products business
WHAT HAPPENED
Sun Life Philippines said Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp. (SLIMTC) will exit the trust products business in a planned and orderly transition, following a review of its Philippine businesses and strategy. SLIMTC will stop offering unit investment trust funds (UITFs) and other trust products. Sun Life says it will focus on its core insurance business, with wealth accumulation products and mutual funds still offered through other Sun Life units. BusinessWorld reports SLIMTC had P428.91 billion in assets under management at end-March, the third biggest among six standalone trust companies. The Inquirer reports Sun Life says it remains financially strong.
UNCERTAIN
The reports we read do not give a timeline or the exact options for each investor. The Manila Bulletin reports that affected clients will be notified directly through official company channels.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: if you or your company hold a Sun Life trust or UITF product, you will have a decision to make. It also shows that a large financial group can decide a business no longer fits its plans.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: a reinvestment decision on a timeline you do not control. Opportunity: a chance to review your fund mix, fees and goals. Both are our interpretation, and this is not investment advice.
NEXT MOVE
If you hold a Sun Life trust product, wait for the official notice and read the options before you decide. Do not move money based on rumors.
Inquirer → , BusinessWorld → , Manila Bulletin →
● Palace orders stronger El Niño measures for food, water and power
WHAT HAPPENED
Malacañang said President Marcos ordered agencies to intensify efforts on food, water and energy security, public health and a stronger public information campaign after meeting key agencies. The Daily Tribune reports the Palace says food supply is adequate, with imports available if needed. The government has 135 stationary water tanks and 182 mobile water tankers ready, plus cloud seeding and better dam management. For power, the DOE is preparing 250 MW of battery storage and 218 MW of power barges as backup, particularly for the Visayas, and is speeding up projects that would add 1,500 MW. The Palace urged the public and the private sector to conserve water and electricity.
UNCERTAIN
These are preparations, not delivered capacity. The Philippine Star reports the DOE has said the Visayas could face grid alerts or blackouts if barges and batteries do not come online in time. How severe the El Niño will be is not settled.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: businesses that depend on water, refrigeration or steady power should plan for interruptions, since a dry season can strain supply and push power prices up.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: outages and higher power and food costs in the dry season. Opportunity: firms that sell water storage, backup power, efficient equipment or drought-ready supplies may see more demand. Both are our interpretation.
NEXT MOVE
List the three operations that would stop if power or water were cut for a day, and price a basic backup for each.
The Chronicle → , Daily Tribune →, PhilStar →
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● US inflation rises to 3.7% as gasoline prices jump
WHAT HAPPENED
The US consumer price index rose 0.6% in September, lifting the annual rate to 3.7% from 3.4% in August, the Labor Department reported, according to Axios. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% from a year earlier, up from 2.4%. Gasoline prices spiked 9.1% in September, while food prices were flat. CNN reports the readings were above economists’ expectations of 3.6% for the headline rate and 2.5% for core.
UNCERTAIN
Analysts differ on how long energy will drive the numbers. Axios says the report makes further Fed rate hikes more likely, but the Fed has not decided, and its next decision is on Oct 28.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: hotter US inflation can keep US rates and the dollar high, which adds pressure on the peso and on local borrowing costs.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: a stronger dollar raises the peso cost of imports. Opportunity: exporters and firms with dollar income may gain. Both are our interpretation.
NEXT MOVE
Check how much of your costs and debt depend on the dollar, and whether you can lock in prices before the Fed’s Oct 28 decision.
● ASML posts record sales as chip customers look to order through 2030
WHAT HAPPENED
ASML reported record third-quarter net sales of €11.7 billion and net income of €5.0 billion, which includes a €500 million gain on its stake in Mistral AI. It raised the low end of its 2026 sales forecast to €44 billion to €45 billion. Its CEO said some customers want to place orders for 2029 and even 2030, driven by their AI investment plans, and that planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet demand. CNBC notes sales were slightly below the €11.72 billion analysts expected.
UNCERTAIN
ASML says the demand comes from customers’ own views on the size and duration of AI investment, which could change. Net income includes the one-time Mistral gain.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: this is another sign that AI chip demand is strong into 2028, which supports Philippine electronics and semiconductor firms in that supply chain.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: if AI spending slows, orders can be cut. Opportunity: local suppliers of components, logistics and services to chip makers. Both are our interpretation.
NEXT MOVE
If you serve electronics clients, ask about their 2027 order plans before you add staff or space.
● J&T Express passes 100 million parcels a day again, with Southeast Asia up 44.5%
WHAT HAPPENED
J&T Global Express reported third-quarter parcel volume of 9.58 billion, up 24.8%, or an average of 104.2 million parcels a day, above 100 million for a second straight quarter. In Southeast Asia, parcels rose 44.5% to 2.89 billion, or 31.4 million a day, and the company expects 2026 growth there of 50% to 55%. It had 131 sorting centers and about 5,900 line-haul vehicles in Southeast Asia at the end of the quarter. Investing.com reports shares fell after the earnings call.
UNCERTAIN
These are the company’s own figures from a company statement and earnings call. Southeast Asia growth is slower than a year earlier, against a very high base, and the figures do not break out the Philippines.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: heavy parcel growth shows online selling and delivery are still expanding in the region, which matters for SMEs that sell online or ship goods.
RISK / OPPORTUNITY
Risk: busy networks can mean delays and higher fees in the holiday peak. Opportunity: more delivery capacity may give online sellers more choice and room to negotiate. Both are our interpretation.
NEXT MOVE
Ask your courier now about peak-season rates and cut-off dates, and compare at least two.
Investing.com →, The Manila Times →
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Delivery capacity and fintech money may favor small online sellers
J&T says its Southeast Asian network now has 131 sorting centers and moved 31.4 million parcels a day in the quarter. At the same time, Philippine fintech startups raised $61 million in the first half, about 75% of all startup funding, according to the Kickstart Ventures and DealStreetAsia report.
For a small online seller, both point to a market that is building tools: more delivery capacity and more payment and lending products. You can use that to compare couriers, ask for better rates and test new payment options for your customers.
The caution is that funding is concentrated in a few deals, and J&T’s numbers do not break out the Philippines. More volume can also mean delays in the holiday peak. Treat this as a trend to watch, not a promise. This section is our interpretation of two news items, not a forecast.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Know your exit before your provider announces theirs
Imagine the fund you use is closed by the company that runs it. That is what Sun Life has said about its trust unit. It plans an orderly transition and says it will tell clients their options. Even so, clients will have to make a decision on someone else’s timeline.
You can prepare before it happens to you. Write down every financial provider and key supplier you depend on: your bank, your payment app, your fund, your courier, your software. For each one, note what you would do if it stopped serving you next month, and where you would move.
Keep your own copies of statements and contracts. Avoid putting all of your cash or all of your orders with one provider if you can help it. None of this predicts a problem. It simply means that when a notice arrives, you already have a plan. This is our reading of the news, not advice on any product.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
Spot prices, not regulated charges, are driving the power bill
Meralco’s October increase looks small, P0.3191 per kWh, but the parts behind it are large. The generation charge rose P0.4973 per kWh. Within that, spot market charges rose P3.5167 per kWh because supply in the Luzon grid was thin, while charges under power supply agreements fell P0.7567 per kWh, according to BusinessMirror and PNA.
PNA attributes the rise to higher LNG costs, peso depreciation and tight Luzon supply. It also reports that power supply agreements covered 74% of Meralco’s needs. Our read: that cushion softens the swings, but anything bought outside those agreements is more exposed to spot prices.
Dry-season risk adds to this. The DOE has said the Visayas could face grid alerts if backup capacity is late, and the Palace says it is preparing 250 MW of battery storage and 218 MW of power barges. In November, the new distribution rate and the P0.1733 refund start together, so the next bill will show a different mix of charges.
How to read this: the rate figures come from Meralco. The El Niño supply outlook is uncertain. Use this to plan for power costs that move around, not to forecast your own bill.
- TSMC results, today. The chip maker reports this afternoon, a check on whether AI chip demand is holding up.
- Oct 22 BSP decision. Whether the BSP hikes again, with US inflation at 3.7%.
- Oct 28 Fed decision. Axios says the hot US inflation report makes more Fed hikes more likely.
- November Meralco bills. The new distribution rate and the refund start together, so check each line.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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