Manila’s Condo Market: From POGO-Fueled Boom to Painful Repricing

Metro Manila’s condominium market is undergoing a multi-year correction as developers confront a massive inventory mismatch: tens of thousands of unsold units, high vacancy rates, and a buyer base that largely cannot afford the prices at which many projects were launched. The situation is best described not as a simple “glut” but as a structural misalignment between what was built, where it was built, and who can actually buy or rent it, an imbalance now forcing price adjustments, extended payment terms, and a shift toward more affordable, mid-income products.

The core problem: supply-demand mismatch, not just oversupply
According to Gulf News’ report, the market entered 2026 with a paradox: a large housing need coexists with a large stock of vacant or unsold condos. Industry trackers describe this as a “disconnect” between supply and demand, exacerbated by the earlier overheating of the market driven by Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGO) speculation and investment demand rather than end-user occupancy.

By end-2025, Colliers reported around 79,200 unsold condo units in Metro Manila. By August 2026, that figure had risen to about 82,900 units, according to industry consultant Bertalan Feher. Nearly 30,000 of these are ready-for-occupancy (RFO) units, completed but unsold, highlighting how much inventory is immediately available yet not moving at prior price levels.

Inventory and absorption: a slow, multi-year healing process
The market’s “absorption” metrics show improvement but remain stretched. Unsold inventory had reached an extreme 13.4 years of supply in Q2 2025, easing to about 8 years by Q4 2025 as sales picked up and new launches slowed. Developers sold roughly 10,100 preselling and RFO units in 2025, an 8% increase from 2024, but the total unsold count continued to climb into 2026.

Vacancy tells a similar story. Metro Manila’s residential vacancy rate ended 2025 at about 24.7%, with expectations for it to remain near 25% in 2026 before modestly easing to around 23.9% in 2027. In some submarkets, the picture is harsher: Colliers reported vacancy above 50% in the Bay Area during 2025, while stronger CBDs like Makati, Rockwell, and Ortigas stayed below 15%.

Repricing in action: discounts, incentives, and a buyers’ market
Gulf News describes the current environment as firmly a buyers’ market, with developers offering discounts, lower cash requirements, extended payment terms, and RFO incentives to move inventory. Earlier Gulf News reporting in 2025 already flagged that property experts were calling for drastic pricing adjustments, potentially 20-40% cuts, alongside flexible 10-15 year payment plans and value-adds like free interior design or fully furnished units.

By 2026, the emphasis has shifted toward mid-income and affordable segments. The mid-income segment accounted for 77% of net take-up in Q3 2025, indicating real demand for reasonably priced housing in accessible locations. Eased mortgage rates have also supported recovery, as the central bank’s policy rate cuts improved affordability and buyer confidence.

What this means for buyers, investors, and the broader economy
For end-users and OFWs, the repricing cycle creates opportunities: more choice, better terms, and the potential to acquire units at more sustainable price points, especially in non-premium submarkets. For investors, the story is more nuanced. High vacancy and long absorption periods imply weaker rental yields and slower capital appreciation in oversupplied areas, particularly where POGO-driven demand has evaporated.

From a macro perspective, the correction underscores the need for better alignment between project pipelines and actual household purchasing power, as well as for updated frameworks around condominium liveability and data transparency. If developers and policymakers lean into affordable, mid-income supply in well-located areas, the market can gradually rebalance. If not, the “healing” process will remain protracted.