Meralco Bills Rise Again, Exports Face a New Tariff Test, and Palantir’s Otherworldly Quarter

The Daily Scan – August 05, 2026 (Wed)

Days after its P9.5 billion refund order, Meralco just got approval to collect P8.71 billion in separately unrecovered costs, while analysts say exports should weather the new 12.5% US tariff and farmer groups pushed for a 30% safeguard duty on rice imports. Petron’s profit fell 27% even as fuel prices and revenue jumped. Globally, Palantir posted a 93% revenue surge, calling its own quarter “otherworldly”. SpaceX beat estimates in its first earnings report as a public company but still saw its stock fall on heavy AI spending, and BP’s profit doubled on Iran-war oil prices.

THE SNAPSHOT

Meralco’s billing story got more complicated: days after its P9.5 billion refund order, the ERC separately cleared it to collect P8.71 billion in unrecovered costs going the other way. Analysts say exports should weather the new 12.5% US tariff, though garments and footwear are exposed, and farmer groups are pushing for a 30% safeguard duty on rice imports. Petron’s profit fell 27% even as fuel prices and revenue jumped. Globally, Palantir’s revenue surged 93%, SpaceX posted its first public earnings beat, but the stock fell on heavy AI spending, and BP’s profit doubled on Iran-war oil prices.

SECTION 1 · Philippines

● Days after its refund order, Meralco gets approval to collect P8.71 billion more

WHAT HAPPENED

The Energy Regulatory Commission authorized Meralco to collect a net P8.71 billion in previously unrecovered pass-through costs from customers over 36 months, covering the period from February 2011 to December 2022. The breakdown: P7.30 billion for generation costs, P615.93 million for transmission, P595.05 million for system loss, and P228.87 million for real property tax. The ERC stressed Meralco won’t earn from these charges; the money gets remitted to power generators, the National Grid Corp., and government agencies. This comes just days after the ERC ordered Meralco to refund P9.5 billion to customers for a separate over-collection in 2025.

UNCERTAIN

The two decisions cover different periods and different types of charges, so it isn’t a simple offset; the ERC hasn’t given a single combined figure for how this and the refund net out on a typical household’s bill over the coming months.

WHY IT MATTERS

Two ERC decisions landing within days of each other, one a refund and one a new collection, show how mechanical and lagging these true-up processes are. They reflect costs from years past catching up to current bills, not a sudden new charge. For businesses tracking utility costs, the net effect on any given bill depends on both adjustments running simultaneously.

RISK

Businesses that budgeted for the full P117 average monthly refund benefit should recalculate, since the new P8.71 billion collection will also appear as a line item and partially offsets that relief over the same period.

NEXT MOVE

Check upcoming Meralco bills for both the AWAT refund line item and the new unrecovered-cost collection line item. They’ll run concurrently, and the net effect on your bill is what actually matters for budgeting.

Inquirer →

● Exports seen weathering the new 12.5% US tariff, but garments and footwear are exposed

WHAT HAPPENED

Analysts say Philippine merchandise exports should weather the US’s new 12.5% tariff, which replaced the expired 10% baseline rate on July 24, since key products like electronics and agricultural goods remain exempt. The Department of Trade and Industry says $11.98 billion worth of exports are covered by exemptions. Former tariff commissioner George Manzano noted the effective increase in the tariff burden is only 2.5 percentage points once the exemptions are factored in. But about $6.25 billion, or 34.28% of Philippine goods sent to the US, including leather goods, apparel, footwear, and toys, are directly exposed to the new levy.

UNCERTAIN

One economist projected the trade deficit will widen further in the second half of 2026, averaging $4-6 billion a month, while trade officials are more focused on diversification through new free trade agreements; how much the exposed sectors actually shrink versus adapt isn’t yet clear.

WHY IT MATTERS

This is a sector-specific story, not a broad export crisis: electronics and agriculture, the country’s largest export categories, are largely protected, while labor-intensive, lower-margin industries like garments and footwear face real competitive pressure that could translate into job losses. The US remained the Philippines’ top export market in the first half of the year, so this tariff structure matters disproportionately.

RISK

Businesses in garments, leather goods, footwear, or toys with significant US exposure should model reduced competitiveness against tariff-exempt producers elsewhere, and consider whether faster duty drawback or market diversification could offset the impact.

NEXT MOVE

Trade officials are pushing five new free trade agreements this year, including with Canada and the EU. Exporters in exposed sectors should track this progress as a genuine alternative to US-market dependence, not just a talking point.

BusinessWorld →

● Farmer groups push for a 30% safeguard duty on rice imports

WHAT HAPPENED

The Federation of Free Farmers and the Magsasaka Party-list formally asked the Tariff Commission to impose a 30% safeguard duty on rice imports, on top of the existing 15% tariff. The groups say rice imports have averaged 3.446 million metric tons a year since the 2019 Rice Tariffication Law, nearly triple the prior average, and reached a record 2.75 million MT in just the first half of 2026, about 83% of the average annual total from the previous seven years. They estimate the import surge costs domestic rice farmers about P50 billion a year. The Tariff Commission is investigating and expects to release findings in September.

UNCERTAIN

Whether the Tariff Commission’s investigation, which must show the import surge has caused serious injury to local producers under the Safeguard Measures Act, actually results in a duty this large is still an open question pending the September findings.

WHY IT MATTERS

A successful safeguard petition would raise rice import costs at a time when food price relief has been one of the few things keeping headline inflation from running even higher. That’s a direct tension between protecting farmer incomes and keeping consumer rice prices low, and it will play out over the next several months as the investigation proceeds.

RISK

Businesses in food retail, milling, or import-dependent food service should model a scenario where rice import costs rise meaningfully by early 2027 if the safeguard duty is approved, since it would apply on top of the existing tariff.

NEXT MOVE

Watch for the Tariff Commission’s findings in September. That’s the concrete checkpoint that will determine whether this moves from a farmer petition to an actual policy change.

Philstar →

● Petron’s profit falls 27% even as revenue jumps 57% on higher fuel prices

WHAT HAPPENED

Petron Corp. posted a 27% decline in first-half net income to P3.8 billion, even as revenue rose 57% to P605.9 billion on higher fuel prices and stronger sales volume. Dubai crude averaged $91 a barrel in the first half, up 27% from a year earlier, and the higher production and import costs that came with it offset the revenue gains. Consolidated sales volume rose 6% to 67.9 million barrels, driven by Petron’s Singapore trading subsidiary, even as combined Philippine and Malaysian sales volume fell 6%. Philippine retail fuel sales specifically grew 15%. Shares fell slightly on the results.

UNCERTAIN

Part of the sales volume weakness in the Philippines and Malaysia traces to a temporary shutdown at Petron’s Port Dickson refinery and scheduled maintenance at its Bataan refinery, so it isn’t yet clear how much of the margin pressure is from oil prices alone versus these one-off operational disruptions.

WHY IT MATTERS

A major fuel retailer posting weaker profit despite rising fuel prices is a useful, counterintuitive data point: higher crude costs squeeze refiners’ margins even as they raise what consumers pay at the pump, so elevated fuel prices don’t automatically mean windfall profits throughout the supply chain. Petron’s management called the pressure “temporary,” betting on eventual normalization.

RISK

Businesses that assume fuel retailers are profiting heavily from high pump prices should recognize the margin squeeze runs both ways; retail fuel companies are absorbing real cost pressure too, which could affect service levels or pricing decisions if it persists.

NEXT MOVE

Watch Petron’s Port Dickson refinery jetty replacement, targeted for completion in early 2027. That timeline is a concrete marker for when one source of the current operational drag should ease.

BusinessWorld →

SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing

● Palantir’s CEO calls its own quarter “otherworldly” as revenue surges 93%

WHAT HAPPENED

Palantir reported second-quarter revenue of $1.94 billion, up 93% year-over-year and well above the $1.8 billion analysts expected, with adjusted earnings of 41 cents per share against an expected 35 cents. US commercial revenue surged 149% to $764 million, while US government revenue grew 90% to $809 million. The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $8.15-8.16 billion, implying 82% annual growth, and lifted its US commercial revenue outlook to above $3.42 billion. Shares jumped 12% after the results. CEO Alex Karp said the growth “looks like this is going to go on for at least another 18 months.”

UNCERTAIN

Palantir’s stock has still lost 29% this year on broader concerns that AI software valuations are overextended, so this quarter’s beat doesn’t fully resolve the market’s skepticism about how long this growth rate can be sustained.

WHY IT MATTERS

A 149% jump in US commercial revenue, not just government contracts, is a signal that enterprise AI software demand is broadening beyond early adopters and defense-linked spending. Karp specifically framed this as evidence of a “sovereign AI revolution,” suggesting governments and companies globally are racing to build independent AI capability rather than relying solely on a handful of frontier labs.

OPPORTUNITY

Businesses evaluating enterprise AI software vendors can treat this scale of commercial growth as a sign the market is maturing quickly, meaning more competitive options and proven deployments to learn from, not just early-stage pilots.

NEXT MOVE

If you’re evaluating AI software investments for your business, Palantir’s results are a useful benchmark for how fast enterprise AI adoption is actually moving, separate from the hype cycle around any single vendor.

CNBC →

● SpaceX’s revenue jumps 92% in its first earnings report as a public company, but the stock still fell

WHAT HAPPENED

SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% from a year earlier and well above the $6.8 billion analysts expected, with its net loss narrowing to $541 million from $4.3 billion in the first quarter. It was the company’s first quarterly earnings release since its record-breaking IPO in June, which raised $85.7 billion. Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million from 6 million a year ago, with the connectivity unit posting $4.3 billion in revenue against a forecast of $3.8 billion. The company’s AI unit booked $2.6 billion and Starship brought in $962 million. Shares still fell over 8% in after-hours trading.

UNCERTAIN

The stock drop despite the strong headline numbers came largely from disclosed capital spending of about $18.4 billion for the quarter, well above what some investors expected, so it’s unclear whether the market will eventually reward the growth or keep punishing the spend.

WHY IT MATTERS

This is the first real financial transparency into one of the most closely watched companies of the year, and it shows a business still burning significant cash while scaling three very different units, satellite internet, rockets, and AI, simultaneously. For any business watching how capital-intensive AI infrastructure bets get judged by public markets, SpaceX’s stock reaction despite beating on revenue is a live case study.

RISK

Investors and partners evaluating exposure to SpaceX or comparable high-capex AI infrastructure plays should expect continued stock volatility tied to spending disclosures, not just revenue growth, at least until the market has more quarters of data to judge the trend.

NEXT MOVE

Watch the next one or two quarters for whether Starlink’s subscriber growth translates into improving margins. That trajectory, more than any single revenue number, is what will determine whether the market’s capex concerns ease.

CNN →

● BP’s profit more than doubles as Iran-war oil prices keep energy markets on edge

WHAT HAPPENED

BP reported second-quarter underlying profit of $5.73 billion, more than double the $2.35 billion from a year earlier and beating the $5.11 billion analysts expected, its highest quarterly profit since 2022. Brent crude averaged about $97 a barrel in the quarter, up from $78 in the first quarter and $67 a year ago, as the US-Iran conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. BP raised its dividend 4% and increased its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $13.5-14 billion. Together, the five biggest Western oil majors earned close to $47 billion in combined profit for the quarter.

UNCERTAIN

BP’s own upstream plant reliability fell to 92.4% from 95.7% the prior quarter and production declined, partly due to the same regional disruption driving up prices, so the company’s operational performance is more mixed than the headline profit figure suggests.

WHY IT MATTERS

Sustained high profits across all five major Western oil companies confirm that elevated fuel costs are structural to the current conflict, not a brief spike. As long as the conflict continues, businesses globally should expect energy costs to stay elevated rather than normalize.

RISK

Businesses with fuel-sensitive costs should treat current oil price levels as the likely baseline for planning purposes rather than a temporary spike, given oil majors themselves are increasing capital spending in response to sustained, not falling, demand and pricing.

NEXT MOVE

Watch for any genuine, sustained de-escalation in the Iran conflict as the real signal for lower fuel costs; oil major earnings this strong suggest the market isn’t pricing in a quick resolution.

Reuters (via Yahoo Finance) →

SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS

Palantir’s Beat Is a Benchmark for Where Enterprise AI Spending Actually Stands

Palantir’s 149% jump in US commercial revenue, not just its government contracts, is a real data point on how fast enterprise AI software adoption is moving beyond early pilots into serious spend. For any business weighing whether to invest in AI tools now or wait for the market to mature, this quarter suggests the market is already maturing quickly, with more competitive vendor options and more proven deployments to learn from than a year ago.

The opportunity is in treating Palantir’s growth curve as a signal, not a reason to chase the stock. Businesses that study what actually drove commercial adoption this fast, sovereign and enterprise buyers wanting independent AI capability, can apply that same reasoning to their own AI vendor decisions rather than waiting on the sidelines for more certainty that may never fully arrive.

CNBC →

SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON

Strong Numbers Don’t Always Buy You the Benefit of the Doubt

CNN →

SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL

Five Oil Majors Just Earned $47 Billion in a Single Quarter, and That’s the Real Inflation Story

Reuters (via Yahoo Finance) →

Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.