Market & Mainstreet
Peso Nears P63 With 6th Record Low, iSON Deepens PH Bet, Koloma Expands Hydrogen Hunt, OpenAI Delays IPO Over AI Safety Fears
The Daily Scan – September 15, 2026 (Tue)
The peso’s slide deepened again Monday, its sixth record-low close this month alone, as oil prices spiked past $107 a barrel following a Saudi pipeline shutdown and renewed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. A trader now puts P64 within reach by year-end if the pressure holds. Yet capital allocation keeps diverging from the currency headlines: the PSEi rose on hopes of 2027 BSP rate cuts, iSON Group expanded its already-large Philippine commitment to $375 million across telecom, agriculture, healthcare, and outsourcing, and US firm Koloma pressed further into native hydrogen exploration offshore Palawan. Overseas, OpenAI’s decision to shelve its 2026 IPO over AI safety concerns and a Fed rate decision now priced at roughly 90% odds of a hike both land the same week, underscoring how much of the peso’s own weakness is being driven by decisions made far outside Manila.
| PHP/USD | Brent Crude | iSON PH Investment |
| Record low, P62.86 | ~$107/bbl, sharp spike | Expanded to $375M |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Peso sinks to sixth record low this month, P63 within striking distance
WHAT HAPPENED
The peso shed 18 centavos to close Monday at a fresh record low of P62.86 to the dollar, from Friday’s previous record of P62.68, as heightened expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike propelled the dollar’s rally. RCBC chief economist Michael Ricafort noted Brent crude rose to $107 a barrel the same day after Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline as a precaution following repeated attacks, with Saudi oil exports already down to about 3 million barrels a day in August, the lowest on record since 2017.
UNCERTAIN
A trader told BusinessMirror the peso could slump to as low as P64 by year-end if oil prices, the dollar, and geopolitical tensions remain elevated, but cautioned that touching P63 is different from staying there.
WHY IT MATTERS
This is the sixth time in September alone that the peso has posted a fresh all-time low, a pace of depreciation that’s now visibly outrunning the BSP’s own 75 basis points of tightening this year, and one squarely driven by oil-supply shocks the central bank has no tools to fix.
RISK
Businesses with near-term dollar obligations or fuel-intensive operations should treat P63, and potentially P64 by year-end, as a real planning scenario rather than a tail risk.
NEXT MOVE
Watch Wednesday’s Fed decision and any further escalation around Saudi’s pipeline repair timeline, both are now the dominant drivers of where the peso goes next, more so than anything the BSP can independently control.
● PSEi inches up on hopes the BSP could start cutting rates in 2027
WHAT HAPPENED
The PSEi gained 0.22 percent, or 13.26 points, to close at 6,075.07 on Monday, with investors treating language in the BSP’s August Monetary Policy Report about a possible 2027 policy reversal as a buy signal. The central bank said a low-inflation scenario could create room for rate cuts to support growth even as it kept the door open to further hikes this year.
UNCERTAIN
Philstar’s own market commentary called the 2027 easing signal “conditional rather than a firm policy pivot,” noting about 70 percent of surveyed analysts still expect another 25 to 75 basis points of tightening this year before any cuts begin, contingent on inflation actually falling toward the BSP’s 3 percent target.
WHY IT MATTERS
Equity investors are pricing in a fundamentally different timeline than currency traders right now, stocks are betting on relief arriving in 2027 while the peso is pricing in worsening pressure through year-end, a genuine divergence in how two sets of markets are reading the same central bank guidance.
OPPORTUNITY
If the 2027 easing signal holds, businesses that have delayed capital raises or expansion plans anticipating permanently higher rates may find financing conditions improving sooner than expected, though not immediately.
NEXT MOVE
Don’t anchor financing plans to the 2027 easing signal alone, Philstar’s own analysts flag it as conditional on a faster-than-expected drop in inflation, watch the actual inflation trajectory over the next two quarters before assuming rate relief is coming.
● iSON Group expands Philippine investment plan to $375 million across towers, agrotech, and BPO
WHAT HAPPENED
India-led iSON Group is planning up to $375 million in additional Philippine investments over the next decade, up from its earlier $300 million telecom-tower commitment, now also covering agricultural technology, digital healthcare, and business process outsourcing. The expansion was presented during a September 12 meeting in India between President Marcos, economic officials, and iSON chairman Vivek Gupta, with the telecom-tower arm alone building 300 to 400 new sites annually toward a 3,000-tower target.
UNCERTAIN
The announcement details the total commitment and the tower rollout pace but doesn’t specify firm timelines or investment splits for the newly added agrotech, healthcare, and BPO verticals.
WHY IT MATTERS
A major foreign investor expanding rather than pausing its Philippine commitment, in the same week the peso hit its sixth record low, is a concrete signal that at least some categories of foreign direct investment are looking past the currency headlines toward underlying demand.
OPPORTUNITY
Local contractors, especially in rural Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, stand to benefit directly from the tower rollout, while the new BPO and digital healthcare verticals open fresh partnership or supplier opportunities for Philippine firms in those spaces.
NEXT MOVE
If you’re in telecom infrastructure, agritech, or BPO, iSON’s local contractor and partnership needs are worth tracking directly as the expanded investment plan moves from announcement to execution.
● US firm Koloma expands hunt for native hydrogen to offshore Palawan
WHAT HAPPENED
US-based Koloma Inc. is proposing to explore a 712,000-hectare area in the East Palawan Basin for native hydrogen, its fourth such service contract in the Philippines if awarded, after earlier deals covering parts of Pangasinan and Zambales. The Department of Energy has opened the nomination to competing applicants, with challengers required to pay a P1-million application fee and submit documents by October 14, when bids will also be opened.
UNCERTAIN
Energy officials have said it remains genuinely uncertain whether exploration will confirm commercially viable deposits at Koloma’s existing Pangasinan sites, let alone offshore Palawan, drilling at the company’s first contract areas isn’t expected until late this year or early 2027.
WHY IT MATTERS
Native hydrogen, unlike hydrogen produced industrially, is a naturally occurring underground resource, and the Philippines is positioning itself as a first mover globally through competitively awarded exploration contracts, a genuinely novel angle on domestic energy security if it pans out.
OPPORTUNITY
If commercially viable, native hydrogen could become an additional indigenous energy source that reduces the country’s exposure to the kind of oil-import shocks currently driving the peso’s weakness, though that outcome remains years away at best.
NEXT MOVE
This is a multi-year exploration story, not a near-term investment signal, energy and resource-sector businesses should track the October 14 bid deadline and the outcome of Koloma’s Pangasinan drilling as the next concrete checkpoints.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● OpenAI’s Altman confirms no IPO in 2026, citing AI safety concerns
WHAT HAPPENED
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told Fortune in an interview published Friday that the company will not go public in 2026, calling the current moment “ill-advised” for a listing given ongoing safety and alignment work. Altman’s comments followed a public warning from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei that AI companies “must slow the pace” of capability gains, a view Altman said he agreed with, adding that pacing has become “a primary topic” of internal OpenAI discussions.
UNCERTAIN
Altman left open whether 2027 is realistic, saying only “not 2026,” and didn’t specify what concrete safety milestones would need to be met before OpenAI reconsiders a listing that had reportedly been targeting a trillion-dollar valuation.
WHY IT MATTERS
One of the most anticipated IPOs in tech history being pulled specifically on safety grounds, rather than market conditions, is a signal that the AI industry’s internal risk calculus is shifting in ways that could affect the pace and terms of AI investment more broadly, relevant to any business building on or planning around frontier AI tools.
RISK
Businesses that had priced future planning around aggressive frontier AI capability growth should treat this as a signal that the pace of new capabilities may deliberately slow, at least at the leading labs.
NEXT MOVE
If your product roadmap depends on rapidly advancing frontier AI capabilities, watch how other major labs respond to this pacing conversation over the coming months, it may be a sector-wide shift rather than an OpenAI-specific one.
● Fed rate-hike odds surge to roughly 90% ahead of Wednesday’s decision
WHAT HAPPENED
Markets are now pricing in a roughly 90 percent chance the Federal Reserve raises rates at its September 16 meeting, up sharply from around 56 percent in late August, after August’s Consumer Price Index showed prices rose 0.3 percent month-over-month. RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas said the reacceleration in inflation after a brief June-July easing “sets the stage for a likely interest rate hike.”
UNCERTAIN
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled at Jackson Hole that recent inflation progress hasn’t been sufficient to change his view, but the committee’s final decision and accompanying economic projections aren’t confirmed until Wednesday, so the exact size and framing of any move remains unsettled.
WHY IT MATTERS
A Fed hike arriving the same week as the peso’s sixth record low is not a coincidence, dollar strength tied to US rate expectations is one of the most direct channels pushing the peso weaker, meaning Wednesday’s decision will likely have an immediate, measurable effect on Philippine currency and import costs.
RISK
If the Fed hikes as now expected, further peso weakness in the days immediately following is a real possibility, businesses with near-term dollar needs should plan around that timing specifically.
NEXT MOVE
Watch Wednesday’s Fed announcement directly rather than relying on pre-decision odds, a confirmed hike versus a surprise hold will meaningfully change the peso’s near-term trajectory.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Two Markets, Two Timelines, Same Central Bank Report
The PSEi rallied Monday on the same BSP report that’s doing nothing to slow the peso’s slide. Stock investors read the central bank’s mention of possible 2027 easing as a reason to buy. Currency traders are ignoring that signal entirely, focused instead on this week’s Fed decision and an oil shock the BSP has no power over. Both readings are defensible, they’re just answering different questions.
For founders, the lesson is to stop treating “the market” as a single coherent voice. Equity markets are pricing in a policy destination two years out. Currency markets are pricing in the next 48 hours. If you’re making a decision this quarter, the peso’s signal is far more relevant than the PSEi’s. If you’re planning capital structure for 2027 and beyond, the BSP’s own conditional language about easing is worth taking seriously, precisely because equity investors already are.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Saying “Not Yet” Out Loud Is Harder Than It Sounds
Sam Altman had every incentive to take OpenAI public this year. A trillion-dollar valuation was reportedly on the table, and the company had spent months signaling it was close. Instead, he told Fortune directly that going public right now would be “ill-advised,” tied it explicitly to unresolved safety work, and declined to commit to 2027 either. That’s a genuinely uncomfortable thing to say publicly when the market, and probably plenty of people inside his own company, are ready to move.
The harder version of this lesson isn’t “prioritize safety,” it’s “be willing to name the reason you’re not ready, specifically, rather than hiding behind vague timing language.” Founders under pressure to ship, raise, or launch often default to soft deflections, “we’re still finalizing details,” “the timing isn’t quite right,” because naming the actual gap feels like admitting weakness. Altman naming the gap directly, “we have a lot of stuff to do on safety and alignment,” gives his team, his investors, and his critics something concrete to hold him to. Vague timing excuses don’t.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
A $375-Million Commitment Just Got Bigger the Same Week the Peso Hit Its Sixth Record Low
Every currency headline this month points the same direction: down. Against that backdrop, iSON Group didn’t pause its Philippine expansion, it grew it. What started as a $300-million telecom-tower commitment is now $375 million, with three entirely new verticals, agrotech, digital healthcare, and BPO, added on top of the original infrastructure plan. This announcement came directly out of a meeting with President Marcos in India on September 12, two days before the peso’s latest record low.
What makes this worth sitting with is the timing itself. iSON had every opportunity to quietly scale back or delay given six consecutive months of currency headlines. Instead, the company expanded its scope. That’s either a bet that the peso’s weakness is cyclical rather than structural, or evidence that the underlying return calculation for telecom infrastructure, rural connectivity, and outsourcing in the Philippines simply isn’t sensitive to short-term currency swings the way portfolio capital is.
For founders watching FDI headlines as a proxy for business confidence, this is a more useful data point than the peso itself. Portfolio investors can exit in days. A company committing to build 3,000 physical towers over a decade is making a fundamentally different kind of bet, one that says more about their read on long-term Philippine demand than any single month’s currency print does.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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