Market & Mainstreet
Habagat Shuts Schools Again, GMA’s Profit Nearly Vanishes, and an Indefinite Oil Blockade Rattles Markets
The Daily Scan – August 17, 2026 (Mon)
Habagat rains forced another round of class suspensions across Metro Manila and nearby provinces on Monday, a now-familiar disruption to productivity and commuting. GMA Network’s first-half profit nearly vanished without last year’s election ad windfall, building material prices are climbing at their fastest pace in over three years, and SM Prime is holding back on new residential launches for the rest of the year, even as BSP signals its tightening cycle may be ending. Globally, Washington’s warning that its naval blockade of Iran could run indefinitely pushed oil higher again, the IEA has cut its 2026 supply forecast as the Hormuz standoff drags into a sixth month, and Southeast Asia’s heavy reliance on Middle East oil imports is drawing fresh scrutiny as a structural vulnerability, not just a temporary shock.
| Brent Crude | Standard Chartered PH Forecast | PSEi Close (Aug 14) |
| $88.52/bbl, up 1.7% | Cut to 3.5% for 2026 | 6,297.30, up 0.14% |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Habagat rains force another round of class suspensions across Metro Manila, Bulacan, and Baguio as flooding and high tides persist
WHAT HAPPENED
Several local government units suspended in-person classes for Monday, August 17, including Manila, Malabon, Valenzuela, Caloocan, Las Piñas, Pateros, and Baguio, due to continued rain, flooding, and high tide levels from the enhanced southwest monsoon. PAGASA said Habagat will keep affecting Luzon and western Visayas, with Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro expected to receive 50 to 100 millimeters of additional rain through August 18, on top of already significant rainfall in some areas.
UNCERTAIN
The list of affected areas was still being updated as of Monday morning, and PAGASA is also monitoring a separate low-pressure area with a “medium” chance of developing into a tropical depression within 24 hours, so the disruption could extend or expand.
WHY IT MATTERS
This is at least the third round of habagat-driven class and work disruption in August alone, a pattern that compounds lost productivity and retail foot traffic on top of an already soft growth picture, and it lands in the same week BSP is weighing whether to ease rates further.
RISK
Businesses in Metro Manila and the affected provinces should plan for recurring, not one-off, disruption to staff attendance and logistics through the rest of the monsoon season, which typically runs into September.
NEXT MOVE
Monitor PAGASA’s advisories on the new low-pressure area directly. If it develops into a tropical depression, expect a wider and longer disruption than Monday’s suspensions alone.
● Without election ad revenue, GMA Network’s first-half profit nearly disappears, falling 95%
WHAT HAPPENED
GMA Network Inc. reported first-half profit of P89.93 million, down 95% from P1.97 billion a year earlier, as revenue fell 35% to P6.61 billion following the loss of over P2 billion in campaign ad spending that boosted 2025’s results during election season.
UNCERTAIN
The report notes that even excluding the prior year’s election-linked revenue, GMA would still show underlying weakness, though the exact scale of that non-election decline isn’t fully broken out in available coverage.
WHY IT MATTERS
A 95% profit decline this steep, on a revenue base still north of P6 billion, shows how heavily traditional broadcast economics now depend on irregular, election-cycle windfalls rather than steady underlying demand, a structural challenge for legacy media beyond just this one bad comparison.
RISK
Businesses and agencies planning ad spend around traditional broadcast media should factor in that network revenue outside election years may be structurally weaker than headline figures from election-cycle years suggest.
NEXT MOVE
Watch full-year results for whether GMA’s non-election revenue lines show any recovery in the back half of 2026.
● BSP’s rate-hiking cycle may be finished as sluggish growth cools inflation pressure, Standard Chartered says
WHAT HAPPENED
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ tightening cycle may be over, with rate cuts possible by mid-2027, Standard Chartered Bank said, arguing that the country’s sluggish growth will likely soften demand-driven inflation going forward. The call came after Standard Chartered slashed its own 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.5% from 4%, following the disappointing second-quarter print.
UNCERTAIN
This is one bank’s house view, not a BSP commitment, and the timeline for actual rate cuts depends heavily on how inflation behaves if oil prices keep climbing on the ongoing Gulf shipping standoff covered below.
WHY IT MATTERS
A shift from “how much higher will rates go” to “when do cuts start” would be a meaningful change in borrowing conditions for businesses, but it’s happening precisely because growth is weak enough to justify it, not because the economy is thriving.
OPPORTUNITY
Businesses with financing plans on hold due to high rates may want to start preparing loan applications now, positioning to move quickly if BSP signals a genuine pivot toward cuts in the coming months.
NEXT MOVE
Watch BSP Governor Eli Remolona’s public statements for confirmation of this dovish shift, and track Brent crude, since a sustained rise in oil prices could delay any pivot toward cuts.
● Building material prices in Metro Manila climb at their fastest pace in over three years, driven by paint costs
WHAT HAPPENED
Growth in retail prices of construction materials in Metro Manila hit its highest level in more than three years in July, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority, driven mainly by a faster increase in painting material prices. Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort attributed the acceleration largely to the impact of the Middle East conflict that began in February.
UNCERTAIN
The PSA data captures Metro Manila retail prices specifically; how closely this tracks construction cost inflation nationwide, and how much further painting materials in particular could climb, isn’t detailed in available coverage.
WHY IT MATTERS
This is a direct, measurable channel through which the Gulf oil disruption is already showing up in domestic costs, not a future risk. It also lands the same week SM Prime says it’s holding back on new residential launches, a plausible read being that rising input costs are one reason developers are pausing.
RISK
Contractors, developers, and any SME with ongoing construction or renovation plans should budget for continued upward pressure on materials costs as long as the Hormuz standoff persists.
NEXT MOVE
Watch August PSA data for whether this pace of increase continues or eases. Painting materials specifically are worth tracking given they’re driving the current acceleration.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● Oil rises after Washington says its naval blockade of Iran could continue “indefinitely”
WHAT HAPPENED
Brent crude rose 1.7% to close at $88.52 a barrel on Friday after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said American forces could maintain an indefinite naval blockade of Iranian ports, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of “economic isolation” measures against Iran unlike anything seen before. Both Brent and U.S. WTI crude advanced more than 5% for the week despite a dip earlier in the week, as the standoff over reopening the Strait of Hormuz entered its sixth month with no resolution in sight.
UNCERTAIN
Whether “indefinite” reflects an actual long-term U.S. strategy or negotiating pressure ahead of a future deal isn’t clear; Pakistan’s defense minister suggested days earlier that a peace arrangement was still taking shape.
WHY IT MATTERS
Six months in, the market is adjusting to the idea that this disruption may not resolve quickly, which is a different planning assumption than treating it as a temporary shock, and it’s already showing up in Philippine construction costs, as this edition’s building materials story demonstrates.
RISK
Businesses that have been budgeting for a near-term resolution to Gulf disruption should revisit those assumptions. An “indefinite” blockade signals sustained elevated energy and input costs are the more likely base case.
NEXT MOVE
Watch for any concrete Iran-Oman transit agreement, which multiple sources describe as close but still unresolved. That would be the clearest signal of an actual turning point.
● IEA cuts its 2026 global oil demand and supply forecasts as Hormuz closure drags on with no deal in sight
WHAT HAPPENED
The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 global oil demand forecast to a decline of 1.6 million barrels a day, 510,000 more than its July estimate, citing the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated fuel prices. Global oil supply is now projected to fall by 4.3 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102 million, as renewed hostilities in July and early August undermined earlier recovery efforts. Global observed oil inventories fell below 7.9 billion barrels in July for the first time since April 2025.
UNCERTAIN
The IEA notes the market is still projected to return to surplus toward year-end, but says that outlook depends on inventory buffers that are being depleted faster than expected, making the timeline genuinely uncertain.
WHY IT MATTERS
This is the most authoritative independent confirmation yet that the Hormuz disruption is deepening rather than easing, directly reinforcing the “indefinite blockade” signal above and the construction-cost pressure already visible in Metro Manila data.
RISK
Businesses should treat elevated global oil prices as a multi-quarter planning assumption rather than a temporary spike. The IEA’s own numbers show inventory cushions shrinking, not growing.
NEXT MOVE
Watch the IEA’s September Oil Market Report for whether this forecast gets revised further, which would confirm the deterioration is continuing rather than stabilizing.
● The Hormuz crisis exposes how exposed Southeast Asia’s energy supply really is, IEA report finds
WHAT HAPPENED
A new IEA Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report finds the Middle East accounts for 60% of the region’s crude oil imports, and nearly half of the oil products refined or consumed in Southeast Asia trace back to that source, exposing major structural risks now that the Strait of Hormuz standoff has disrupted flows for six months running.
UNCERTAIN
The report is a structural, long-term assessment rather than a country-by-country breakdown, so exactly how exposed the Philippines specifically is relative to neighbors like Vietnam or Indonesia isn’t detailed in available coverage.
WHY IT MATTERS
This reframes the current oil price pain as a preview of a structural vulnerability, not just a temporary crisis, for a region, including the Philippines, that imports the large majority of its energy from a single, currently disrupted source.
RISK
Businesses building long-term plans around cheap, reliable imported fuel should treat this report as a signal that the region’s underlying energy security gap, not just the current conflict, is the real multi-year risk.
NEXT MOVE
Watch for any Philippine government or ASEAN-level response on energy diversification. The IEA’s call for action makes this a live policy question, not just an academic one.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
A Softening Rate Outlook and a Hardening Oil Price Are Pulling in Opposite Directions
Standard Chartered’s call that BSP’s tightening cycle may be over, paired with the IEA’s cut to its 2026 oil supply forecast, describes two forces now pulling against each other. Softer growth is making it easier for BSP to justify lower rates, which should reduce borrowing costs for businesses. But that same soft growth is happening alongside an oil market the IEA says is deteriorating, not stabilizing, which pushes input and fuel costs the other way, as this edition’s building materials story already shows in concrete numbers.
For business owners, the practical read is that cheaper financing may be coming, but it won’t offset rising input costs on its own. This is a moment to separate financing decisions, where waiting for a possible rate cut could pay off, from procurement decisions, where locking in costs now, before further oil-driven increases, is the safer move.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
A Business Built on One Irregular Windfall Isn’t a Business, It’s a Bet
GMA Network’s first-half profit fell 95% the moment its 2025 election ad windfall disappeared, dropping from P1.97 billion to just P89.93 million on a revenue base that only declined 35%. That gap between the revenue drop and the profit collapse is the real story: a huge share of what looked like healthy profitability last year was actually a single irregular, non-repeating source of income.
The lesson for founders is to stress-test your own numbers the same way: strip out any single client, campaign, seasonal spike, or one-off contract from your revenue, and look honestly at what’s left. If the number left over doesn’t look like a viable business on its own, you don’t have a durable business, you have a good year that happened to include a windfall. Build toward the version of your numbers that holds up without it.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
“Indefinite” Is the Word That Changes the Planning Horizon, Not Just the Headline
The word doing the real work in Friday’s oil story isn’t “blockade,” it’s “indefinitely.” Six months into this conflict, U.S. officials have consistently used language suggesting resolution was near, from ceasefires to draft agreements to reported near-deals with Oman. This is the first time a senior U.S. official has publicly floated an open-ended timeline, and the IEA’s own August report backs that shift with hard numbers: supply forecasts cut again, inventories at their lowest since April 2025, and no agreement on the table.
For any Philippine business that has been treating this disruption as a temporary event to wait out, this is the signal to reconsider that assumption. The IEA’s own Southeast Asia energy report, also covered in this edition, makes the same point at a structural level: this region imports the majority of its oil from exactly the source now under indefinite disruption. The practical question for founders isn’t when this ends, it’s how your cost structure holds up if it doesn’t end soon.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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