Market & Mainstreet
Diesel Drops P7.57 Today, But Oil is Already Climbing Back
The Daily Scan – September 29 2026 (Tue)
Fuel is cheaper today. Diesel falls P7.57 a liter, kerosene P5.85 and gasoline P0.24, after three weeks of steep hikes.
But Brent rose again on Monday after Washington turned down Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That makes today’s cut look like a pause, not a turn.
Commuters face higher fares and a two-day strike. Central Visayas workers say the coming P42 wage hike falls short. The PSEi closed at 5,788.87 on Monday and the peso at P62.545.
| USD to PHP | Diesel, per liter | PSEi |
| P62.545 | -P7.57 | 5,788.87, down 0.64% |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Diesel down P7.57 a liter today, ending three weeks of hikes
WHAT HAPPENED
Rappler reports that pump prices fall starting today: diesel by P7.57, kerosene by P5.85 and gasoline by P0.24 per liter. Last week alone, diesel rose P8.82, gasoline P4.88 and kerosene P6.47. Rappler links the drop to renewed hopes for US-Iran talks at the UN General Assembly. Prices are still well above levels before the fighting began on February 28.
UNCERTAIN
How long the relief lasts. Oil moved up again on Monday, after these prices were set.
WHY IT MATTERS
Diesel drives freight, delivery and farm costs. This is the biggest cut SMEs have seen in weeks.
RISK
The cut gives back most of last week’s diesel hike, not the whole run of September increases.
OPPORTUNITY
A short window to reprice logistics at lower fuel costs.
NEXT MOVE
Ask your delivery and freight partners to reprice this week. Avoid locking long contracts at the old diesel price.
● Jeepney fares rise P1, and drivers strike anyway
WHAT HAPPENED
The Inquirer reports that higher fares took effect Monday. The minimum for traditional jeepneys goes from P13 to P14, and for modern jeepneys from P15 to P17. Manibela is holding a strike from Monday to Wednesday and says more than 20,000 members in Metro Manila are joining. PISTON has its own strike on September 29 and 30. In-person classes are suspended in some areas on both days. SunStar reports that PISTON Cebu will stop operations from 7 a.m. today.
UNCERTAIN
How many routes actually stay off the road, and whether the action goes past Wednesday.
WHY IT MATTERS
Staff commutes, foot traffic and deliveries can all slip for two to three days.
RISK
Late staff, thin walk-in sales and missed deliveries.
OPPORTUNITY
Shops close to homes and offices, and delivery services, may see more demand while transport is disrupted.
NEXT MOVE
Allow flexible start times or remote work today and tomorrow. Tell customers early about any delivery delays.
● Cebu workers call the new P42 wage hike too small
WHAT HAPPENED
The Freeman reports that Partido Manggagawa and Sentro rejected the newly approved P42 daily increase in Central Visayas. Under the order, the rate in Class A areas, including expanded Metro Cebu, goes from P540 to P582 starting October 14, 2026. The groups want a P200 legislated national raise and the end of regional wage boards. The NCR minimum is P755, a gap of P173. Central Visayas inflation was 8.1% in August, against 6.1% nationally, and 10.4% for the poorest 30% of households.
UNCERTAIN
Whether the order changes under pressure. The groups’ demands are advocacy positions, not policy.
WHY IT MATTERS
Payroll costs for covered employers rise on October 14. As a rough estimate, P42 a day over 26 working days is about P1,092 more per worker each month.
RISK
More pressure to top up pay and higher staff turnover if wages lag prices.
OPPORTUNITY
Small firms that pay fairly and on time can hold on to good people.
NEXT MOVE
Recompute payroll and your prices before October 14, so the increase does not land on your margin by surprise.
● PSEi slips below 5,800 as oil fears return, peso weakens
WHAT HAPPENED
The Tribune reports that the PSEi fell 37.10 points, or 0.64%, to 5,788.87 on Monday. The peso weakened 8 centavos to P62.545 per dollar from P62.465. The paper ties the moves to US-Iran tensions, higher oil and elevated bond yields after Trump rejected an Iranian proposal on Hormuz.
UNCERTAIN
Tuesday’s session is still running as we publish, so Monday’s close is the latest full read.
WHY IT MATTERS
A weaker peso raises the cost of imported goods, inputs and dollar payments.
RISK
Imported costs creep up while oil stays high.
OPPORTUNITY
Businesses that earn in dollars gain from a weaker peso.
NEXT MOVE
Add a small currency buffer when you quote imported items or dollar-priced services.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● Oil jumps after Trump turns down Iran’s Hormuz offer
WHAT HAPPENED
Al Jazeera reports that Brent rose more than 3% on Monday, nearing $108 a barrel in Asian trading, after Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. Later it traded near $107.35. Trump said on Saturday that Tehran’s latest proposal was not acceptable.
UNCERTAIN
Whether talks restart this week, and when the strait actually reopens.
WHY IT MATTERS
The Philippines is a big net oil importer, so pump prices and inflation follow Brent closely.
RISK
A new round of pump price hikes in the coming weeks.
OPPORTUNITY
None clear for most SMEs. Fuel-saving upgrades are worth a look.
NEXT MOVE
Watch Brent this week before you set fuel-linked prices for October.
● Higher oil and US yields test Asian currencies
WHAT HAPPENED
MUFG Research says the dollar index is near 101.1, the US 10-year yield is above 5.2% and Brent is above $100. Asian currencies have weakened over the past two weeks as markets expect a tougher Fed. MUFG sees the Indonesian rupiah and Thai baht as more exposed, and the Singapore dollar and yuan as more defensive.
UNCERTAIN
This is one bank’s view, and it does not cover the peso.
WHY IT MATTERS
The same forces, oil, US yields and a strong dollar, weigh on the peso too.
RISK
US rates staying high keeps borrowing costs high across the region
OPPORTUNITY
None clear for SMEs, except for those that earn in dollars.
NEXT MOVE
If you pay suppliers in dollars, check your payment dates against the peso’s recent moves.
● Australia’s central bank is expected to raise rates today
WHAT HAPPENED
FXStreet reports that the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points, to 4.60% from 4.35%. The decision is due at 2:30 p.m. Sydney time, which is 12:30 p.m. in Manila.
UNCERTAIN
The decision was not out when we wrote this. Australian inflation data due Wednesday may decide whether more hikes follow.
WHY IT MATTERS
Rates are still rising around the region, not falling. That limits how much room central banks have to cut.
RISK
Loan costs stay high for longer than businesses hope.
OPPORTUNITY
Savers and time-deposit holders keep decent yields.
NEXT MOVE
Check the result after 12:30 p.m. Manila time before you plan any new borrowing.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Two clocks are running on your costs
Diesel got cheaper today. On October 14, payroll gets more expensive for employers in Central Visayas Class A areas. Those two dates are your working window.
Use it in this order. First, ask your delivery and freight partners to pass on the diesel cut. Second, work out what P42 a day does to your monthly payroll. Third, decide your new prices before October 14, not after.
A business that moves early can raise prices in small steps. A business that waits may need one big jump later, and customers notice big jumps.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
A small raise that comes late fixes very little
Jeepney drivers got a fare increase this week. It is P1 for traditional jeepneys. By their own account, the approved increase was held back for about six months. Their leaders say the government still owes them for that gap, and they went on strike anyway.
You can feel the lesson if you run a business. When your costs jump, the fix is to move your price early and in small steps. Wait too long, and the raise you finally get is already too small for the costs you have carried.
So look at your own price list today. Which item is still priced for last quarter’s costs? Change that one first.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
Today’s fuel rollback is a pause, not a reversal
The fact. Pump prices fall today because oil eased last week on hopes of US-Iran diplomacy, per Rappler. On Monday, Brent went the other way. It rose more than 3% and neared $108 after Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz offer, per Al Jazeera.
What we do not know. Whether talks restart this week. Trump said Tehran’s proposal was not acceptable, and no new deal is on the table yet.
Our read. Local pump prices follow world oil with a lag of about a week, because the DOE adjusts weekly. If that holds, Monday’s jump feeds into the next adjustment, not today’s. That points to pressure on pump prices again soon. It is an interpretation, not a forecast.
- Brent’s direction this week
- Any restart of US-Iran talks
- The DOE’s estimate for the next adjustment, usually flagged late in the week
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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