Market & Mainstreet
Fares Rise Today, a Diesel Rollback Looms, and Oil Is Already Climbing Back
The Daily Scan – September 28, 2026 (Mon)
Higher jeepney, bus, taxi and ride-hailing fares start today. Oil firms are expected to announce a diesel rollback of about P7 to P8 a liter for Tuesday, but Brent is already back above $106 after President Trump rejected Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and he says he is weighing a ban on US diesel exports. The BSP’s latest surveys show business and consumer confidence recovering from deep lows, though both still read negative. Government bond yields rose last week on bets the BSP hikes again, and the Agriculture department wants higher pork import tariffs, which hog raisers welcome and importers oppose. The PSEi bounced to 5,825.97 on Friday and the peso firmed to P62.465.
| USD to PHP | PH 10-year yield | PSEi |
| P62.465 | 7.71% | 5,825.97, up 1.67% |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Business and consumer confidence improve, though both still read negative
WHAT HAPPENED
The BSP’s latest surveys show business confidence for August improved to negative 10.9 from negative 20.3 in July. Firms’ outlook for the next three months jumped to 24.6 from 3.7, helped by expected holiday demand and the rice harvest, and the year-ahead reading rose to 36.4 from 29.4. Consumer confidence for the third quarter improved to negative 29.8 from negative 42.0, and the 12-month household outlook turned positive at 9.1 from 0.2.
UNCERTAIN
A negative reading means pessimists still outnumber optimists. The Manila Times noted the business survey had a 45.7% response rate and that the household survey ran in July, so neither captures September’s fuel hikes or the growth forecast cuts. Households also raised their inflation expectation to 4.0% from 3.3%, while firms expect 5.4%.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: firms are counting on a holiday lift, but BusinessMirror’s report of the same data says households show stronger saving plans, weaker spending plans for everyday expenses and lower borrowing intentions. Optimism among owners is running ahead of caution among customers.
RISK
If holiday spending comes in softer than firms expect, stock bought on optimism will sit on the shelf.
OPPORTUNITY
Hiring intentions for the next 12 months rose to 30.7 from 9.0, and households are more willing to consider big-ticket purchases.
NEXT MOVE
If you sell to consumers, plan Q4 stock and staffing for a holiday lift, but order in smaller batches and lean on preorders so you follow real demand rather than the survey mood.
● Higher jeepney, bus, taxi and ride-hailing fares start today
WHAT HAPPENED
Fare increases approved in March, then suspended, take effect today after the Transportation department lifted the suspension. The minimum fare for traditional jeepneys rises to P14 from P13, and for modern jeepneys to P17 from P15. Ride-hailing base fares rise to P55 for hatchbacks (from P35), P65 for sedans (from P45), P75 for SUVs (from P55) and P165 for premium cars (from P145). Airport taxis charge P115 for the first 500 meters, up from P75, and point-to-point buses rise 15%.
UNCERTAIN
Taxi and UV Express increases are described as provisional in other reports. The reports we reviewed do not say whether fares would be revisited if fuel prices keep falling.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: this raises the daily commuting cost for your staff and the cost of any delivery or errand you book through ride-hailing. The mandatory 20% discount for students, seniors and persons with disabilities continues.
RISK
Higher commuting costs can turn into requests for transport allowances just as your own fuel and input costs are already elevated.
OPPORTUNITY
Transport groups say the increase helps keep enough vehicles on the road, which supports staff getting to work.
NEXT MOVE
Check what you pay in transport allowances and ride-hailing deliveries, and update quotes to customers if those costs are built into them.
● Government bond yields climb on bets the BSP hikes again
WHAT HAPPENED
Yields on government securities rose across all tenors last week as investors sold bonds on inflation worries and expectations of more BSP rate increases ahead of next month’s policy review. Yields rose an average of 4.16 basis points week on week as of Sept. 25. The 10-year bond saw the biggest move, up 13.01 basis points to 7.7057%. The 91-day and 182-day bills rose to 5.4176% and 5.7811%.
UNCERTAIN
These are market prices, not a BSP decision. A bond trader quoted by BusinessWorld expects yields to stay elevated, with US inflation and growth data likely to reinforce hawkish Fed expectations. The official September inflation figure is due Oct. 6.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: government yields are the base on which banks price loans. When they climb, business loan rates tend to follow with a lag.
RISK
If the BSP hikes at its October meeting, floating-rate loans and new credit lines get more expensive.
OPPORTUNITY
Higher yields also mean better returns on new government paper for savers, including the retail bond offer scheduled for Sept. 29 to Oct. 7.
NEXT MOVE
If you have a floating-rate loan or plan to borrow this quarter, ask your bank how repricing works and whether you can fix your rate before the BSP’s October meeting.
● Plan to raise pork import tariffs splits hog raisers and importers
WHAT HAPPENED
The Agriculture department proposes raising pork import tariffs by 10 percentage points in 2027, to 25% for in-quota imports and 35% for out-of-quota imports, up from 15% and 25%. Hog farmers welcome it, saying live hog prices have fallen below production costs. Importers warn it would push up consumer prices. The DA says farmgate prices dropped to P150 a kilo in August from P215 in June last year, while imports keep rising.
UNCERTAIN
Reports differ on timing. The Manila Times, BusinessWorld and GMA describe a 2027 step and a return to pre-swine-fever levels of 30% and 40% in 2028. Inquirer and Philstar quote the agriculture secretary saying rates could return to prior levels as early as Jan. 1. A meeting with the private sector is set for next week.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: for restaurants, processors and meat sellers that buy imported pork, higher tariffs mean higher input costs. For businesses buying local pork, a firmer farmgate price is possible if imports get more expensive.
RISK
Pork-heavy menus and processed products face higher costs once tariffs step up.
OPPORTUNITY
Nothing is final yet, so there is time to line up local suppliers and price-protect purchases.
NEXT MOVE
If pork is a big share of your food cost, ask suppliers for quotes with price validity into early 2027 and check whether a local supplier can cover part of your volume.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● Oil climbs back above $106 after Trump rejects Iran’s Hormuz offer
WHAT HAPPENED
Oil rose more than 1% in early Asia trading Monday. Brent gained 1.8% to $106.31 a barrel and US crude rose 1.3% to $93.62. Trump turned down Iran’s conditional offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, telling reporters “They made a proposal but I rejected it.” The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that Trump told aides he expects US strikes on Iran to resume after November’s midterm elections.
UNCERTAIN
Trump also told Axios he expects negotiations to resume this week and that Iran has overplayed its hand, while Iran says it will not soften its conditions, which include lifting the US naval blockade and releasing frozen assets. Earlier phased-deal reports have collapsed before.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: the diesel rollback expected Tuesday reflects last week’s prices. This week’s oil is starting higher, which matters for the pump price adjustment a week from tomorrow.
RISK
A stalled Hormuz deal and talk of renewed strikes keep a risk premium in prices.
OPPORTUNITY
Trump’s comment that talks could resume this week means a headline reversal is still possible.
NEXT MOVE
Treat Tuesday’s rollback as relief that may be short-lived and avoid committing to long-term price cuts on the strength of one week’s lower fuel.
● Trump says a US diesel export ban is under “very serious” consideration
WHAT HAPPENED
Trump told a Fox News reporter on Sunday that he is looking “very seriously” at banning US diesel exports to fight high prices, adding “we may do it.” He acknowledged such a move could push up gasoline prices for cars. Other officials in his administration continue to focus on other possible steps.
UNCERTAIN
No decision has been announced. The White House denied a report earlier this week that a 90-day ban was being prepared, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright said a blanket ban was not under consideration. Analysts cited in coverage warn a ban could tighten other fuel supplies.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: Philippine pump prices follow Singapore benchmarks, so a move that removes a major exporter from global diesel trade could lift Asian diesel prices, though the effect depends on what is actually imposed.
RISK
A ban would come on top of an already tight global diesel market.
OPPORTUNITY
The idea has been floated and walked back before, so it may not happen.
NEXT MOVE
Do not budget around a ban either way. Watch for an official announcement and for the DOE’s weekly fuel price estimate on Friday.
● This week’s US inflation and jobs data will test the case for another Fed hike
WHAT HAPPENED
The Fed raised rates a quarter point on Sept. 16, its first hike since 2023, and signaled it may act again before year-end. US Treasury yields climbed last week to their highest since 2007. This week brings the August PCE inflation gauge on Wednesday, manufacturing data on Thursday and the September jobs report on Friday. Futures price better than a 60% chance of another hike in October, per LSEG.
UNCERTAIN
BigGo reports the market expects core PCE inflation to tick up to 3.4% from 3.3%, and about 100,000 new jobs with unemployment at 4.2%. Those are forecasts, and a surprise either way could swing the odds quickly.
WHY IT MATTERS
Our read: a bigger US rate gap tends to pressure the peso and raises the odds the BSP follows with its own hike. BusinessWorld’s Monday market preview is headlined “Peso seen rangebound as Fed rate bets hinge on US job report.”
RISK
Hot US data would push yields and the dollar higher, adding pressure on the peso.
OPPORTUNITY
Soft data could cool hike bets and give the peso room to firm.
NEXT MOVE
If you have a dollar payment due this week, consider settling before Friday’s US jobs report rather than waiting on it.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Tomorrow’s diesel rollback is a window to renegotiate, and it may not stay open.
The DOE said Friday that diesel could fall by as much as P8 a liter and kerosene by about P6, while gasoline is less certain. Industry estimates put diesel at P7 to P7.50 and gasoline at 50 centavos to P1. These are estimates published Sept. 25 and 26, and oil firms announce the final figures today. If they hold, the rollback would claw back most of last week’s diesel hike.
The opportunity is practical. Many suppliers, couriers and truckers added fuel surcharges during three straight weeks of hikes. A lower diesel price is the moment to ask when those surcharges come off, while the number is at its lowest in about a month. Meanwhile, fares rose today, so the cost relief in one column is offset by a cost increase in another. Both are worth putting in your monthly numbers.
The window may be short. Brent is back above $106 this morning, against closes of about $99 to $106.60 last week, so next week’s price could start moving up again.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
When owners feel better before customers do, plan for the customer.
The BSP’s surveys tell two stories at once. Firms’ outlook for the next three months jumped from 3.7 to 24.6, mostly on hopes for holiday demand. Households, in the same reporting, show stronger saving plans, weaker plans to spend on everyday items and less appetite to borrow. Their current confidence is still deeply negative at 29.8 below zero.
Neither group is wrong. But the gap between them is where small businesses get hurt. It is easy to stock up for the season you are hoping for, especially when a national survey seems to agree with you. It is harder to check whether your own customers have said anything that supports it.
The fix is unglamorous. Count what you can actually see: preorders, deposits, repeat buyers, inquiries in your inbox. Order for that number first, then add stock in stages as real demand shows up. A survey can tell you the mood. Only your customers can tell you the order.
Manila Bulletin →, BusinessMirror →
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
The longest bond moved the most. That says investors expect inflation to last.
Every tenor of Philippine government debt got cheaper last week, but not by the same amount. The gap is where the signal is.
| 7.7057% | +13.01 bps | +4.16 bps |
| The 10-year bond yield as of Sept. 25 | The 10-year’s weekly move, the largest of any tenor | The average weekly move across all government securities |
BusinessWorld reports the 10-year yield rose 13.01 basis points, while the 91-day and 182-day bills rose 4.77 and 2.3 basis points. If investors only expected one more BSP hike, you would expect the short end to lead. Instead the long end moved most.
Our read: that pattern usually means investors are asking for more compensation to hold debt for longer because they expect inflation to stay high beyond the BSP’s next move. It is one week of data and one trader’s view, so treat it as a lean, not a verdict. It also sits alongside the other rate signals this week: the Fed’s hike odds above 60% for October and the BSP’s own meeting next month.
For a business owner, the practical point is that the cost of money is being set by the market before any central bank announces anything. Waiting for an official hike to act means acting after the price has already moved.
What to watch next: Wednesday’s US inflation gauge, Friday’s US jobs report, the official Philippine September inflation print on Oct. 6, and the BSP’s policy meeting later in October.
BigGo Finance → , BusinessWorld →
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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