Market & Mainstreet
Diesel Jumps P8.82 a Liter as Oil Already Reverses Below $100
The Daily Scan – September 22, 2026 (Tue)
Diesel rises P8.82 a liter and gasoline P4.88 today, the third big fuel hike this month. But the oil that set this week’s price already reversed. Brent fell to $100.34 on Monday after President Trump signalled he is open to talking with Iran at the UN. At home, the PSEi and peso both extended Monday losses, and the government’s borrowing costs rose again at auction. There is a bright spot on deck: a full excise tax suspension on LPG and kerosene is drafted and waiting only on President Marcos’s signature. Abroad, the Philippines and Canada are close to a trade deal, and the US and China wrapped pre-summit talks with no big breakthrough ahead of Thursday’s Trump-Xi meeting.
| USD to PHP | Diesel, this week | PSEi |
| P62.78 | +P8.82/L | 5,843.79, down 0.21% |
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Diesel up P8.82 a liter today, the third major hike this month
WHAT HAPPENED
The Department of Energy confirmed pump prices rise starting today, September 22: diesel by P8.82 a liter, gasoline by P4.88 and kerosene by P6.47. Over three weeks in September, diesel is now up P18.31 a liter, gasoline P15.25 and kerosene P16.67. Some firms are staggering the diesel hike over two days. Shell and Seaoil will raise diesel by more than P7 today and by another peso tomorrow, per Topgear.com.ph and BusinessMirror.
UNCERTAIN
Before this hike, DOE monitoring put Metro Manila diesel at P94.50 a liter and RON95 gasoline at P91.40 for the week of Sept. 15 to 21, per Rappler. Actual pump prices vary by brand and region.
WHY IT MATTERS
Diesel runs delivery vans, trucks and generators. A jump this size lands directly on freight, delivery and production costs for any business that moves goods or runs equipment.
RISK
If you have not adjusted delivery fees or supplier terms in three weeks, this week’s diesel bill will hurt more than the last two combined.
OPPORTUNITY
Crude has already started falling since this week’s price was set. That can flow through to a smaller hike, or a rollback, next Tuesday.
NEXT MOVE
Check today’s actual price at your regular station before you fill up, since some firms stagger the increase across two days. If diesel is a big share of your costs, hold off on a big price move until you see where next week’s cycle lands.
● LPG could cost P10 to P25 more per kilo starting October
WHAT HAPPENED
LPG Marketers Association president Arnel Ty said international LPG contract prices have risen by about $70 a metric ton, roughly P4 a kilo locally, with freight costs climbing toward $300 adding further pressure. He said the eventual October increase could land anywhere from P10 to P25 a kilo, depending on how prices move through the rest of September. This is separate from smaller adjustments already made this month.
UNCERTAIN
The final figure depends on global contract prices and freight costs through the end of September, so the range is wide. A separately reported DOF recommendation to suspend excise tax on LPG, if signed by President Marcos, would offset part of any increase, but no signing date has been reported.
WHY IT MATTERS
LPG runs kitchens, food carts and small manufacturing. A P25-a-kilo jump on an 11-kilogram tank is a real cost any food business needs to plan for now, a full cycle before it lands.
RISK
The top of the range, P25 a kilo, would be a sharp one-month jump for any food or catering business.
OPPORTUNITY
A month’s notice is more lead time than diesel gets. There is room to plan before the increase lands.
NEXT MOVE
If you cook or manufacture with LPG, price out your October tank cost at both P10 and P25 a kilo now, and decide in advance which one triggers a menu or product price change.
● PSEi and peso both extend Monday’s losses
WHAT HAPPENED
The PSEi fell 0.21%, or 12.12 points, to close at 5,843.79 on Monday, its second straight losing session and still below the 5,900 level. The peso lost 3.1 centavos to close at P62.78 to the dollar, touching an intraday low of P62.84. Analysts pointed to the exchange of threats between the US and Iran, elevated oil prices and rising local treasury yields.
UNCERTAIN
Only holding firms gained among sectoral indices on Monday. Analysts had already flagged last week that shares could extend their slide this week on inflation fears.
WHY IT MATTERS
A weaker peso raises the cost of anything you buy in dollars. A falling PSEi reflects investor caution about the economy generally, which can filter into slower consumer spending.
RISK
Two straight sessions of losses on both the peso and the index point to continued caution this week.
OPPORTUNITY
Oil, one of the main drivers of that caution, already turned lower Monday night on the Iran talk news.
NEXT MOVE
If you are pricing a dollar purchase this week, use P62.80 or higher as your planning rate rather than last month’s average.
● Government still raises its full P52 billion target even as borrowing costs climb
WHAT HAPPENED
The Bureau of the Treasury raised the full P52 billion it wanted from Monday’s auction of Treasury bills and cash management bills, even as yields rose across tenors. The one-year T-bill yield surpassed 6% for the first time in this cycle. Total tenders reached P79.074 billion, or nearly double the amount on offer. Chief economist Michael Ricafort of RCBC tied the increase to the US Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023 and its hawkish signal of another move to come.
UNCERTAIN
Whether the BSP will match a future Fed move is not yet decided. Ricafort has said a matching move could help stabilize the peso but would also raise local borrowing costs.
WHY IT MATTERS
Government borrowing rates are a floor under everything else. When they rise, bank loan rates tend to follow over time.
RISK
If you are planning to borrow this quarter, rates are trending up, not down.
OPPORTUNITY
Demand for government debt stayed strong at nearly two times the offer, a sign investors still see the Philippines as a safe place to park money.
NEXT MOVE
If you have a loan renewal or a new credit line coming up this quarter, start the conversation with your bank now rather than waiting for a lower rate that may not come.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● Oil falls back below $100 after Trump signals openness to talking with Iran
WHAT HAPPENED
Brent crude settled at $100.34 a barrel Monday, down 3.4%, its fourth straight losing session. US crude (WTI) fell 4.5% to $95.78. Traders are treating the closure of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline as less disruptive than first feared. Trump told Fox News on Sunday he would probably be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at this week’s UN General Assembly in New York, and reportedly decided against striking Houthi targets despite pressure from Saudi Arabia.
UNCERTAIN
No meeting is confirmed. Prices initially surged when the pipeline first closed, then eased as the market judged Middle East supply more resilient than expected.
WHY IT MATTERS
This week’s Philippine pump prices were set using last week’s higher oil prices. If this new, lower price holds, it points toward a smaller increase, or a rollback, at next Tuesday’s adjustment.
RISK
Oil has swung sharply on headlines all month. A single tense exchange could send it back above $100 fast.
OPPORTUNITY
If diplomacy holds even loosely, fuel costs could ease for the first time since late August.
NEXT MOVE
Watch Wednesday and Thursday’s oil prices, since Philippine pump prices are set from the prior week’s average. Hold off on a big fuel-related price change until you see next Tuesday’s DOE adjustment.
● The Philippines and Canada are almost done negotiating a trade deal
WHAT HAPPENED
Trade Undersecretary Allan Gepty said Manila and Ottawa resolved major roadblocks during their fourth and final full negotiating round, held Sept. 8 to 11 in Toronto. Only a few issues remain, to be settled through virtual meetings, with no more full rounds planned. Both sides are targeting a concluded deal by November. It would be the Philippines’ first free trade agreement with a North American country.
UNCERTAIN
Gepty said agricultural market access remains a sensitive point, as it was in earlier FTA talks with the EU and Chile. The remaining issues were not detailed.
WHY IT MATTERS
A concluded FTA would lower or remove tariffs on qualifying trade between the two countries, covering goods, services, investment and digital trade.
RISK
A November conclusion is a target, not a signed deal.
OPPORTUNITY
If you export to or import from Canada, this is the first serious opening for preferential access in that market.
NEXT MOVE
If Canada is on your radar as a market or supplier, start researching which of your products or inputs would qualify for a tariff cut once the deal closes.
● US and China wrap pre-summit talks with an AI proposal, but no trade breakthrough
WHAT HAPPENED
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng concluded a day of talks in New York on Sunday, ahead of the Sept. 24 summit between Presidents Trump and Xi in Washington. The US side proposed a new US-China AI dialogue with a notification system for AI-related incidents that reach a national security level. No other major agreement was announced, and there was no progress on rare earth supply issues.
UNCERTAIN
Markets are watching whether the two leaders extend the trade truce expiring Nov. 10, and whether they confirm a reported $30 billion tariff reduction on select goods.
WHY IT MATTERS
US and China trade policy shapes costs and demand across Asian supply chains that Philippine importers and exporters sit inside.
RISK
If the truce lapses Nov. 10 without an extension, tariffs on both sides could climb again.
OPPORTUNITY
Both sides describe this round as constructive groundwork, which raises the odds of at least a short extension out of Thursday’s summit.
NEXT MOVE
If your business touches US or China trade, put Sept. 24 and Nov. 10 on your calendar and ask your supplier or buyer how they would handle a tariff change either way.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Today’s price hike is built on last week’s oil. This week’s oil already moved.
Two numbers tell the real story today. Diesel is up P8.82 a liter as of this morning, the third big hike this month. At the same time, Brent crude closed Monday at $100.34, down for a fourth straight session, after Trump said he would probably be open to meeting Iran’s president at the UN this week.
Philippine pump prices lag oil by about a week, since firms average the prior week’s benchmark before setting Tuesday’s price. That means today’s hike reflects oil that was still climbing. It does not yet reflect Monday’s drop.
If lower oil holds through this week, the math points toward a smaller increase, or even a rollback, at next Tuesday’s adjustment. That is not guaranteed. Oil has reversed on headlines before and snapped back within days. But it is a real reason to hold off on any drastic, permanent price change tied to today’s fuel cost, and instead treat this week as a cash flow squeeze to manage rather than a new normal to build around.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Raise your price with confidence, and the right customers still show up.
The government needed P52 billion on Monday, and borrowing costs were rising against it. The one-year Treasury bill yield crossed 6% for the first time this cycle. By most instincts, that should scare off lenders. It did not. Bids came in at P79 billion, nearly double what was on offer.
The lesson is not about bonds. It is about what happens when you raise a price on something people still trust. The government did not apologize for the higher yield or bury it in fine print. It offered the rate the market required, and the market answered.
Founders often delay a price increase out of fear that customers will disappear. Sometimes they do, especially if the value has not kept pace. But a fair price, clearly stated, tends to filter for the customers who value what you actually offer. The Treasury did not shrink its ask when yields rose. It just paid what the moment required, and still got its money.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
The oil market just told you next week’s fuel price before the DOE did.
Every Monday night, Philippine oil firms set Tuesday’s pump price from a formula: the average of the prior week’s Mean of Platts Singapore benchmark, adjusted for the peso-dollar rate. That is why today’s P8.82 diesel hike reflects a week that is already over.
| $100.34 | P18.31/L | -4.5% |
| Brent close, Monday Sept. 21, down 3.4% and a fourth straight losing session | Cumulative diesel increase over three weeks in September | WTI’s Monday move, settling at $95.78 a barrel |
What changed Monday was not a ceasefire. It was a shift in tone. Trump told Fox News he would probably be open to meeting Iran’s president at the UN this week, and reportedly held off on striking Houthi targets despite Saudi pressure. The market read that as a lower chance of the conflict widening in the next few days, even with Saudi Arabia’s damaged pipeline still not fully restored.
Our read: this is not a signal that the crisis is over. It is a signal that traders are pricing in a pause, and pauses are reversible within a single news cycle. But for a business owner watching costs, the direction matters as much as the size. Oil has now fallen for four straight sessions. If that holds through this week’s benchmark window, expect DOE and oil firms to announce a smaller hike, or a rollback, next Monday for Tuesday, September 29.
What to watch next: Wednesday’s US Central Command update on Strait of Hormuz shipping volumes, and whether Trump and Pezeshkian actually meet at the UN this week.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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